With the Commanders’ second season under new management seemingly teetering on the edge of the abyss, some perspective might be in order.
After a somewhat slow start to the 2024 season, I published a roundup
of timelines recent successful franchise rebuilds. My search for successful rebuilds from similar starting points to the Quinn/Peters Commanders identified four comparable teams: 2023 Texans, 2023 Lions, 2020 Bills, 2019 49ers. The fastest any of these teams achieved their first playoff win after hiring the successful GM was 3 seasons. Only the Bills had a winning record in the first year of their rebuild.
In fact, my choice of starting point made the Bills’ and Lions’ rebuilds seem shorter than they actually were. Both teams underwent failded rebuilds, fired their front offices and started over with the eventually successful GM. If we time those rebuilds from the change of ownership which precipitated rebirth then they took 7 and 10 yrs, respectively, to win their first playoff games.
What Commanders’ fans experienced in the first year of the rebuild was actually unprecedented in the salary cap era. Since 1994, which is as far back as I’ve looked, only the 2010 Seattle Seahawks won a playoff game in the first year of a total franchise reset, and they got knocked out of the divisional round after squeaking into the playoffs with a 7-9 regular season record.
The Commanders’ unprecedented first year success had a lot to do with good decision making on hiring of front office and coaching staff, and use of the second overall pick in the draft. But there was also a lot of good fortune and overperformance involved. If last year’s NFC Championship appearance feels like a dream, that’s because it was. The reality is, it usually takes three or more years to build a roster that can consistently compete with the best teams in the league. The Commanders are still closer to the beginning than the end of that process.
The Commanders were very fortunate to avoid injuries to key players in 2024. They have not been so lucky this year. As injuries continue to expose the roster’s fragility, we could soon reach a point where there is not much the coaching staff can do to adjust. I don’t think we have reached that point yet, but I’m not sure I’m in the majority on that one.
As bad as the last two losses were, it might help to reflect on how fortunate we as fans have been to experience such a dramatic franchise turn around, featuring the emergence of a star QB and some key building blocks to set the foundation for long term success. This season might turn out to be the inevitable hangover after the party, or Dan Quinn might pull another rabbit out of the hat.
Now that I’ve hopefully got you in a more reflective frame of mind, let’s have a look at how bad the 22-44 road loss to the Dallas Cowboys really was, and whether there were any good individual performers to provide a glimmers of hope when the Commanders face the 4-3 Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night without Jayden Daniels in Arrowhead Stadium.
A Note on Stats Sources
Stats were sourced from the NFL, Pro Football Reference (PFR), Pro Football Focus (PFF), or ESPN. NFL official stats were used whenever available. When the source is not indicated, it means either than NFL official stats were used or that there was agreement between stats service.. The source is indicated when there was disagreement between services or if the stat is only available from one source (eg. PFF: stops, run stops, Y/RR, QB hurries). QBR is proprietary to ESPN.
BIGGEST PLAYS OF THE GAME
Expected Points Added (EPA) quantifies the contribution of individual plays to a team’s scoring potential on a drive. These are all the plays with EPA > 2 or <-2.
Biggest Plays for Commanders
Q2, 12:48, 3rd and 6 at WAS 14: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep right to Jaylin Lane for 35 yards. EPA 3.14
Q1, 9:31, 1st and 10 at WAS 47: Jayden Daniels pass complete deep right to Chris Moore for 44 yards. EPA 3.08
Q3, 3:25, 4th and 8 at DAL 26: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete short right intended for Robbie Chosen. Penalty on Kaiir Elam: Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards (accepted). EPA 3.04
Q2, 0:58, 2nd and 3 at DAL 20: Jeremy McNichols up the middle for 19 yards. EPA 2.79
Q1, 7:44, 3rd and 5 at DAL 5: Jayden Daniels pass complete short right to Zach Ertz for 5 yards, touchdown. EPA 2.74
Q4, 12:34, 2nd and 10 at WAS 28: Marcus Mariota pass complete short middle to Zach Ertz for 27 yards. EPA 2.33
Q3, 12:42, 3rd and 10 at WAS 46: Jayden Daniels pass complete short left to Chris Moore for 15 yards. EPA 2.22
Q1, 4:12, 3rd and 10 at WAS 28: Jayden Daniels pass complete short right to Robbie Chosen for 13 yards. EPA 2.09
Q3, 5:31: Brandon Aubrey kicks off 59 yards, returned by Luke McCaffrey for 41 yards. EPA 2.06
(Honorable Mention – Q1, 11:35, 1st and 10 at DAL 1: Javonte Williams up the middle for -1 yards, safety. Tackle by Daron Payne and Jacob Martin. EPA -1.62)
Biggest Plays for Cowboys
Q1, 4:38, 1st and 10 at DAL 26: Dak Prescott pass complete deep middle to CeeDee Lamb for 74 yards, touchdown. EPA 6.33
Q1, 13:15, 2nd and 5 at WAS 39: Dak Prescott pass incomplete deep left intended for George Pickens. Penalty on Marshon Lattimore: Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards (accepted). EPA 3.96
Q2, 0:31, 2nd and 17 at DAL 21: Dak Prescott pass complete deep left to George Pickens for 44 yards. EPA 3.93
Q2, 0:23, 1st and 10 at WAS 35: Javonte Williams left guard for 33 yards. EPA 3.49
Q2, 7:27, 4th and 12 at WAS 43: Brandon Aubrey 61 yard field goal. EPA 2.60
Q3, 8:13, 3rd and 7 at WAS 12: Dak Prescott scrambles up the middle for 7 yards. EPA 2.48
Q2, 8:50, 3rd and 12 at DAL 44: Dak Prescott pass complete short middle to Jake Ferguson for 15 yards. EPA 2.35
Q3, 1:47, 3rd and 5 at DAL 38: Dak Prescott pass incomplete deep left intended for CeeDee Lamb. Penalty on Marshon Lattimore: Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards (accepted). EPA 2.09
Q2, 10:59, 4th and 5 at DAL 46: Jayden Daniels pass incomplete short right intended for Zach Ertz (defended by Markquese Bell). EPA -2.19
Q4, 10:31, 4th and 1 at DAL 36: Marcus Mariota pass incomplete deep right intended for Luke McCaffrey. EPA -2.22
Q3: 11:53, 1st and 10 at DAL39: Jayden Daniels sacked by Shemar James for 4 yards. Jayden Daniels fumbles (forced by Shemar James), recovered by Jadeveon Clowney at DAL-45. EPA -4.91
Q3, 5:46, 3rd and 6 at DAL 38: Marcus Mariota pass short left intended for Jeremy McNichols is intercepted by DaRon Bland at DAL-32 and returned for 68 yards, touchdown. EPA -9.08
OFFENSE
Jayden Daniels completed 12/22 passes (54.5%, ADOT 8.6 yds) for 156 yds and 1 TD, while taking 2 sacks for 5 yds. His receivers dropped 3/22 passes (13.6%). According to PFF, he was pressured on 42.9% of dropbacks and had a Pressure to Sack Rate of 16.7%. He lost a fumble on a strip sack by Shemar James and left the game with a hamstring injury suffered on the play.
Jayden was the Commanders’ leading rusher, with 35 yds and 1 TD on 8 attempts (4.4 Y/A).
His effort was good for a 45.3 Total QBR (Week 7 rank 16), his second lowest of the season.
Marcus Mariota took over after Daniels was injured early in the 3rd quarter. He completed 4/10 passes for 63 yds, with 1 interception and 0 TDs, and took 2 sacks for 9 yds. He ran twice for 34 yards (long 25 yds). His effort earned him a 7.3 Total QBR (out of 100), which actually put him above 1 NFL starter (Tua Tagovailoa 3.3 QBR).
Bill Croskey-Merritt handled the bulk of the rushing load among the RBs, with 13 carries for 33 yds (2.5 Y/A) and only 1 first down. It was tough going for him running into stacked boxes with frequent hits in the backfield. According to PFR, he managed just 1.5 Yards Per Carry/Attempt, his second lowest figure to date (Low 0.3 YBC/Att vs Packers). Not surprisingly, he had the lowest rushing average and Rushing Success Rate (38.5%; prev. low 47.1 vs CHI) of his career to date.
As a receiver, he caught 1/2 targets for -1 yd, which is actually pretty good, considering that he was hit 7 yds behind the line of scrimmage on the play.
Even in a tough loss, Jeremy McNichols continued to be the quiet achiever among Commanders’ role players. Jeremy had 2 rushing attempts for 22 yds and 1 first down (Success Rate 50%), and caught 2/3 targets for 23 yds and 1 first down (ADOT 0.3 yds, -2.5 YBC/Rec). One of the passes he didn’t catch was intercepted on DaRon Bland’s pick 6. For the season McNichols has gained first downs on 7 of 15 carries and achieved a Rushing Success Rate of 53.3%.
Chris Rodriguez had 3 carries for 12 yds (4 Y/A), 1 first down and 1 TD (Success Rate 66.7%). He averaged 2.3 YBC/Att.
Jaylin Lane led the Commanders in receiving yards, catching 3/6 targets for 60 yds (ADOT 17.5 yds), with1 drop. It was his first dropped pass as a Commander. Jaylin was the Commanders’ most productive receiver at a respectable 2.0 Y/RR. He spent 33% of his time on offense as a run blocker and earned the highest PFF run blocking grade on the team (82.3) for his efforts.
Chris Moore was right behind Lane with 59 receiving yards, thanks to a 44 yard reception in the first quarter. He caught 2/5 targets (40%, ADOT 14.6 yds) with no drops. So far this season, he has 2 drops/17 targets (11.8%). He was Washington’s second most productive receiver at 1.84 Y/RR.
New addition Robbie Chosen caught 4/4 targets for 36 yds and 1 first down (ADOT 7.8 yds). He was 1/1 on contested catches, and was the 3rd most productive WR at 1.64 Y/RR.
Luke McCaffrey was targeted twice but couldn’t haul in either pass.
Zach Ertz caught 3/7 targets (42.9%, ADOT 11.3 yds) for 37 yds, 2 first downs and 1 TD. Uncharacteristically, he dropped two passes. In 6 prior games, he dropped 2 passes. The last time he dropped 2 passes in one game was Week 3 in 2022. When he was not running routes, he was run blocking. PFF gave him the fourth highest run block grade on the team (70.1).
John Bates earned a 79.8 run block grade, second on the team after Jaylin Lane. He also caught 1 of 2 targets for 5 yds.
Ben Sinnott and Colson Yankoff each managed to give up a pressure, despite just playing 1 snap in pass protection. PFF gave them pass blocking grades of 8.1 and 9.9, respectively. That’s out of 100. They graded better as run blockers (Sinnott 54.0, Yankoff 60.0). Neither was targeted as a receiver.
PFF only credited one of Dallas’ four sacks to a blocking failure by an offensive lineman. The other 3 came from unmatched blitzers.
LT Laremy Tunsil allowed 2 hurries in 41 pass block snaps (4.9% Pressure Rate). His 73.0 run block grade was third best on the team. This week he finally broke his 6-game streak by playing penalty free for the first time this season.
LG Chris Paul had the same stat line as Tunsil. While 4.9% is a good Pressure Rate for an OT, it is high for a guard. It should be at or below 3%. His 44.6 run block grade was the lowest on the team.
C Tyler Biadasz played a perfect game in pass protection and achieved a 60.1 run block grade.
RG Sam Cosmi finally made his return after rehabbing from an ACL tear suffered in the Divisional round playoff game against the Lions. He allowed just one pressure in 41 pass block snaps (Pressure Rate 2.4%). Cosmi was penalized 5 yards for a false start in the first quarter.
Rookie RT Josh Conerly Jr. continued his education by the NFL’s pass rushers. According to PFF, he surrendered 1 sack and 3 QB hurries in pass protection. His 9.5% Pressure Rate allowed is obviously higher than we would like to see, but not unusual for rookie OTs. He received a 56.2 run block grade, which was his third best mark of the season. He was also flagged for a career high 3 penalties: 2 false starts for 10 yds and holding, which was declined.
Trent Scott played an equal number of snaps at LT and iTE for the first time this season, so I moved him back with the OL.
DEFENSE
The Commanders’ breakout star pass rusher, Dorance Armstrong left the game with a season ending knee injury after playing just 4 defensive snaps. The coaching staff scrambled to replace him by platooning the other edge rushers and by moving DTs to DE even more than usual.
ROLB Jacob Martin played the most snaps at edge. He contributed 0.5 sack (shared with Von Miller), 3 QB hits and 7 total pressures in the pass rush, for an elite-level 22.6% Pressure Rate. He also made 4 tackle assists and 1 stop, with 1 missed tackle, according to PPF (PFR: 0). Martin was penalized 15 yards for roughing the passer on what appeared to this author to be a clean sack.
Not to be outdone, Von Miller made 0.5 sack, 1 QB hit and 6 total pressures in just 20 pass rush snaps for a team-leading 30% Pressure Rate. He made 2 tackle assists and 1 stop, with no missed tackles.
Preston Smith made 1 tackle and 1 assist with 1 defensive stop. He pressured the QB once in 9 pass rush attempts.
Daron Payne bucked the trend on defense by having a career day against the Cowboys. He made 1 tackle, 4 assists and 1 TFL in the endzone for a safety. Both tackles were run stops. He also batted 2 balls down near the line and made 1 PBU. He also generated 1 QB hit and hurry in 26 pass rush snaps (7.7% Pressure Rate). His 2 run stops in 10 run defence snaps were good for a team-leading 20% Run Stop Rate.
Javon Kinlaw kept a most clean stat sheet, with just 1 tackle assist and 1 QB hurry in 20 pass rush snaps (5% Pressure Rate).
Johnny Newton has taken 44.9% of defensive snaps from edge alignments this season, predominantly with his hand in the dirt as a 5-technique. On Sunday, he played 19/26 snaps on the edge, 73%, with 7 snaps at 7-tech and 1 as a stand-up OLB. I probably should have listed him with the edge defenders. He mainly played on rushing downs, with a 18/8 split between pass rush and run defense snaps.
Johnny made 1 tackle and 2 assists, with 2 run stops. He also generated 1 QB hurry in just 8 pass rush snaps.
Sheldon Day made 2 tackles and 2 assists.
As usual, Bobby Wagner led the Commanders with 8 combined tackles (3 tkl, 5 asst), with 2 stops. He was targeted twice in coverage and allowed 1 reception for 5 yds per PFR (3 yds per PFF).
Frankie Luvu made 3 tackles and 3 assists with 2 TFL, 3 stops (2 v run, 1 v pass) and 1 missed tackle. He did not register a pressure in 18 pass rush snaps. He was targeted once in 20 coverage snaps, allowing 1 reception for 2 yds per PFF (PFR: 2/2 for 2 yds).
Jordan Magee got his most defensive snaps to date on Sunday. He did not disappoint with 3 tackles, 1 assist and 2 run stops. In 6 coverage snaps, PFF recorded 2 rec/2 tgt for 4 yds (PFR: 1/1, 5 yds).
Nick Bellore made 2 tackle assists in 7 defensive snaps.
Trey Amos made 3 tackles, with 1 stop. According to PFR, he was targeted 3 times in 38 coverage snaps, allowing 3 receptions for 41 yds (1.08 Y/Cov Snp). That is somewhat leakier than we have seen from the rookie, but really not that bad. PFF scored him significantly worse at 4/4 for 58 yds (1.53 Y/Cov Snp).
Marshon Lattimore made 3 tackles and 1 assist, with 1 stop and 1 PBU. In coverage, PFF recorded 7 tgt/4 rec (57.1%) for 71 yds (1.97 Y/Cov Snp). That’s around twice the acceptable rate of yardage allowed for a boundary CB. PFR scored him even worse at 5/8 (62.5%) for 82 yds (2.28 Y/Cov Snp). In addition to the leaky coverage, he committed 2 DPI penalties for 55 yds. His total contribution to the Dallas passing game was between 126 and 135 yards.
Mike Sainristil made 2 tackles, 1 assist and 2 PBU. He had another rough day in coverage. According to PFF, he allowed 5 rec/7 tgts (71.4%) in 31 coverage snaps for 39 yds (1.26 Y/Cov Snp) and 1 TD. PFR counted 3 rec/5 tgt (60%) for 23 yds and 1 TD (0.74 Y/Cov Snap), which would be good without the TD. Sainristil was flagged for illegal contact in the first quarter, but the penalty was declined.
Jonathan Jones played on 10 rushing downs and 2 coverage snaps. He made 1 tackle and was not targeted in coverage.
Jeremy Reaves made 2 tackles and 2 assists, with 1 missed tackle. PFR recorded 1 target and 0 receptions in 33 coverage snaps. PFF did not see the target.
Darnell Savage has been steadily ramping up his playing time since signing with the Commanders in Week 4. Against Dallas, he played more than 50% of defensive snaps for the first time. He recorded 1 tackle and 2 assists with 1 PBU and 1 stop. According to PFR, he had 1 missed tackle. PFF counted 2. In 26 coverage snaps, he was targeted 3 times, allowing 2 receptions for 6 yds and 1 TD.
Quan Martin was second on the team in combined tackles with 3 tackles and 4 assists. According to PFF, he made 2 stops and missed 1 tackle (PFR: 2 missed tackles). PFF recorded 2 targets in 26 coverage snaps, allowing 2 receptions for 81 yds and 1 TD (PFR: 3/3 for 98 yds and 1 TD).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Matt Gay was 2/2 on extra points and didn’t attempt any field goals.
Tress Way booted 5 punts for 286 yds, with 1 downed inside the Dallas 20 and 2 returns for a total of 4 yds (57.2 Yd/Punt, 52.4 net Yd/Punt). After Week 7, he was averaging 3.5 Yd/Ret, the lowest in the NFL by 0.6 Yd/Ret (min 8 punts).
Tyler Ott snapped with accuracy and precision. His otherwise perfect performance was marred by a 5 yard false start penalty. That might be the first penalty this author can recall being called on a long snapper. It was the third penalty of his 10 year career.
Jaylin Lane returned 1 punt for 8 yds and made 2 fair catches.
Luke McCaffrey returned 8 kickoffs for 209 yds with a long of 41 and no fair catches. He is currently second in the NFL with 713 total kick return yards, and dropped to fourth place in average return (29.7 Yd/Ret) after his performance on Sunday.
Special Teams Play of the Week goes to Percy Butler for his goal-line dance to down a Cowboys’ punt on the 1 yd line.
Nick Bellore returned to his old familiar team-leading form with 2 tackles on special teams.
Tyler Owens, Percy Butler and Jonathan Jones each made 1 tackle. There were no tackle assists this week.
Antonio Hamilton and Colson Yankoff missed one tackle apiece. Yankoff was also called for a questionable tripping infraction for 13 yds.
Tyler Owens was penalized 10 yds for an illegal block.
