The San Francisco 49ers are 6-0 heading into Week 6. For the first time in a few weeks, they “lost” against the spread on Monday. The Niners are still 5-2 against the spread, with the NFL’s second-highest margin of victory at 11.2. They’re also tied for a league-high average margin of victory.
So, when media members ask this:
I would say the answer is no.
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The matchup against the Atlanta Falcons always looked like a scheduled loss, if there ever was one. The 49ers are 3-point road favorites, with the total on the game sitting at 49.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. A high total and a low spread hint at a coin-flip game.
We’ll see if Mike Evans plays. On the outside, it makes more sense to give Evans two weeks off so the Achilles soreness goes away and allows Evans to complete a game. But Kyle Shanahan seems to be putting the ball in Evans’s court. If the veteran feels healthy enough to play, he’ll play, even if the team knows they could lose him mid-game.
There’s familiarity here, as Raheem Morris takes on his old team. Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is one of the best in the league and worked with Shanahan in Atlanta a decade ago, not to mention as Morris’s defensive coordinator.
Morris will need to find a way to limit Drake London, who has the 8th-highest target share among all NFL receivers. The Falcons throw it to London over 28% of the time. London is 11th in EPA per target. Not far behind London is his teammate Jahan Dotson, who is 14th in EPA per target.
Tight end Kyle Pitts is fifth in EPA per target among tight ends. Atlanta is not short on weapons, and we haven’t even gotten to their biggest threat.
Bijan Robinson is second in the NFL, averaging 5.77 yards per carry. He averages more yards after contact (4.64) than a good chunk of running backs do per carry. Robinson is a walking highlight who is heavily involved in Atlanta’s passing attack.
Michael Penix is limited when it comes to being mobile, so that should work in the Niners favor. If there’s one person you’d want to attempt to slow down the Falcons, it’s the coach who drafted most of these players and watched them practice for the past few years: Raheem Morris.
On the other side of the ball, no team has been better against the run than the Falcons defense. They’re first in EPA per rush and sixth in rushing success rate. Atlanta has allowed the third-fewest 10+ yard runs and is seventh in the percentage of runs they stuff. They make teams one-dimensional.
This will be a Brock Purdy game. The Falcons won’t blitz Purdy nearly as often as Washington does, but they get pressure with four. That’s a big difference. Atlanta is fourth in pressure rate despite blitzing 23.7% of the time (26th in the NFL).
You can throw on this defense. Atlanta is 20th and 21st in EPA per pass and passing success rate. Caleb Williams carved up the Dirty Birds for over 300 passing yards a week ago. A good chunk of those came in the first half. Luther Burden and Colston Loveland had him a day.
Tyler Huntley was efficient in Week 5 at Atlanta. He threw for only 201 yards, but completed 75% of his passes and threw two touchdowns. Huntley was efficient in Week 5 at Atlanta. He only threw for 201 yards, but completed 75% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns. Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers combined for 13 receptions for 115 yards. The week before, Tyler Shough threw the ball 48 times for 286 yards. Chris Olave had 116 yards.
Of course, it’s far-fetched to imagine the Niners having a 100-yard receiver without Evans, but Shanahan has a full week to scheme up the non-Evans wideouts.
A short road week with an early start on the East Coast, potentially without your leading receiver, against a team that has lost back-to-back games where they feel like they should have won. And the familiarity, paired with the weapons the Falcons have, makes this an intriguing game and a difficult schedule spot for a 6-0 team that could be feeling fat and happy a week away from the bye.
