After two straight losses, the Cowboys’ comeback story has all but ended. While still technically alive in the NFC playoff race, it would take near-impossible circumstances for Dallas to worm their way
back into the tournament. Given that, our rooting guides will now focus on the much more realistic impact that these final weeks have on our 2026 draft picks.
Officially, Dallas could still win the NFC East if it wins out and the Eagles lose their remaining games. But the Cowboys, who’ve gone from surging to slumping, may not even beat the Chargers this Sunday. It’s also hard to imagine Philly losing twice to Washington over the final weeks. If we have to revisit this come Week 18, we gladly will. But we don’t expect to.
So, where does Dallas stand now in the 2026 draft? Our brief dalliance with renewed playoff hopes took us away from this conversation for a bit. According to the NFL, and basic math, the Cowboys’ original pick would be 14th in the current order. Their 6-7-1 record puts them definitively behind the 6-8 teams but ahead of the 7-7 crowd, eliminating the fuss over tiebreakers.
If the draft was now, here would be the first 18 picks for the non-playoff teams:
1. Giants 2-12
2. Raiders 2-12
3. Titans 2-12
4. Browns 3-11
5. Jets 3-11
6. Cardinals 3-11
7. Commanders 4-10
8. Saints 4-10
9. Bengals 4-10
10. Rams (from Falcons) 5-9
11. Dolphins 6-8
12. Vikings 6-8
13. Chiefs 6-8
14. Cowboys 6-7-1
15. Ravens 7-7
16. Panthers 7-7
17. Lions 8-6
18. Jets (from Colts) 8-6
With only three weeks to go, there’s only so much range for Dallas to rise or fall in the order. They can’t get any worse than 6-10-1, which means 3-11 teams like the Jets and Cardinals can’t be passed. The highest that the Cowboys can reach now in the order is the seventh pick, currently held by the 4-10 Washington Commanders. But that would require Dallas losing out and a lot of bad teams winning out, so it’s probably not happening.
The pick from Green Bay can’t be projected until we see if the Packers make the playoffs and where they finish. Where a team finishes in the playoffs is what decides their eventual pick, no matter how they entered the tournament. So obviously, we’re rooting for Green Bay to fall out of the postseason. And while we’re certainly not happy about Micah Parsons’ injury, that may help end up helping us.
Realistically, Dallas’ original pick should fall somewhere in the 11-16 range. If Green Bay does miss the tournament, they’ll still probably land in that 16-18 range. As we get into the Week 16 schedule, we’ll look at all of the games that could potentially help the Cowboys on either front.
Eagles d. Commanders
Again, we’re focusing on next April now and not January. If you’re still hoping for a miracle in the NFC East, then you’re welcome to root for Philly here. We probably still won’t move past Washington in the draft, but an Eagles win could help them build momentum going into the playoffs. If they were to play Green Bay in the first round, Dallas would benefit if the Packers get eliminated sooner.
Bears d. Packers
Ideally, though, Green Bay doesn’t even make the playoffs and keeps that pick at 18th or better. They’re currently the last wild card team and have a two-win lead on the eighth-seeded Lions. We probably need them to lose every remaining game to give Detroit a chance to pass.
Vikings d. Giants
While we hate for New York to improve its shot at the number-one pick, Minnesota winning could directly help the Cowboys move up.
Chiefs d. Titans
Kansas City is a team that Dallas has a realistic shot at moving ahead of in the draft. The Titans are completely out of our reach, so this one’s easy to pick.
Dolphins d. Bengals
Dallas has a much higher chance of finishing worse than Miami over Cincy, so a Phins win is the way to root.
Saints d. Jets
Probably irrelevant to Dallas either way, but there’s at least a mathematical shot of getting ahead of New Orleans in the draft.
Panthers d. Buccaneers
One of these teams will be the NFC South Champion, and the other probably won’t make the playoffs at all. The best thing for Dallas is that they split their upcoming series to weaken the runner-up’s draft position. So we’ll take Carolina here as the home team, and probably Tampa in Week 18.
Falcons d. Cardinals
Atlanta’s pick, which actually belongs to the Rams, is one Dallas might be able to move ahead of. Arizona’s is not.
Lions d. Steelers
A Detroit win helps them potentially steal the Packers’ playoff spot and keeps them further away from Dallas’ original pick.
Ravens d. Patriots
Baltimore is currently 15th in the order, right behind Dallas. We’d like some more cushion between us.
49ers d. Colts
San Francisco, currently in sixth place in the NFC, helps keep Green Bay vulnerable as the seventh seed with a win.
If we get these outcomes, and the Cowboys lose to Los Angeles, Dallas’ pick would move up to 11th. The Packers would still have a claim on the last wild card spot, but it would be severely weakened. Detroit would only be a half-game behind with two more to go.
