It’s going to be 97 degrees where I live on Wednesday. The dog days of summer are officially here.
In the world of baseball, transaction season heats up with the weather. Such is the nature of establishing a trade deadline around the end of July – this season it’s on August 3rd – as teams become forced to classify the first 100 or so games of their season into one of two distinct evaluations.
Is this team good enough to invest in further? Should we give them the best chances to win as many games as possible
this year?
Or, is this team the Cincinnati Reds?
Joking aside, that’s not completely true. While teams get lumped into the buyers or sellers categories as the trade deadline approaches, the Reds often don’t even do enough to qualify for either. And just last summer, they pulled off the remarkable feat of being a buyer at the deadline for a player who actively made them so bad in 2026 that it’s been a net negative investment.
This is a different Reds club than last year, obviously. This time around, their April magic has been replaced by hell from the injury gods, their record in close games having now been turned on its head by a threadbare bullpen. Across the entire sport’s highest level, only the Colorado Rockies have a worse run differential than these Reds, who once again reside in the cellar of the National League Central division.
So, it’s unsurprising that when asked at the end of last week whether or not this club should be a buyer, or a seller as trade season heats up this summer, roughly 3 out of 5 of you responded that they needed to start selling off players.
Digging themselves out of this hole is going to be difficult when Hunter Greene is still several weeks away. It’ll be difficult without half their bullpen, without Elly De La Cruz for another week or so.
The problem is, what Cincinnati has on the fringes of its long-term plan is a handful of players who haven’t exactly stacked up a ton of value on the trade market.
Eugenio Suarez is the biggest name of the bunch, but he’s having the single worst season of his career and will turn 35 years old this summer. The veterans signed to anchor the bullpen – Emilio Pagan, Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson – are either injured or have been already this year, limiting the significance of any return if they are moved. Nate Lowe has hit well for most of the year, but there’s a reason why his market this offseason was so poor the Reds got him on a minor league deal in the first place. And pending free agent Brady Singer has the fourth lowest fWAR of the 130 pitchers who have thrown at least 50 IP so far this season.
So, selling at the fringes here doesn’t even do much to improve the future, aside from saving a few million bucks that the owners likely wouldn’t pour back into the team 100% anyway. The question I should probably have asked – and likely will again soon – is whether there are pieces that still have more team control than that group who don’t look like they fit the future of this franchise’s next window to compete who should be marketed this summer. That’s the kind of move that could bring back something of significance, a move that could shake the foundation of a franchise that’s found a way to stumble through this rebuild almost as badly as it stumbled through the last two.
Regardless, it sure looks like this club has no business being a buyer this summer. And if that’s the case, they might as well end up sellers.
