With the off-season officially underway, the Arizona Diamondbacks front office is facing a financial and roster construction tightrope act. Eleven players are eligible for salary arbitration in 2026, totaling a projected $26.6 million according to MLB Trade Rumors’ estimates. Coupled with a looming 40-man roster crunch, needed to reinstate players from the 60-day Injured List, GM Mike Hazen is forced to make tough decisions on who to tender and who to non-tender, all while navigating an ownership
mandate to reduce the team’s total payroll from last year’s record highs.
The Financial Reality
The D-backs already have approximately $103.5 million committed to just eight players for the 2026 season, a figure that presumes Lourdes Gurriel Jr. picks up his $13 million player option. With owner Ken Kendrick confirming the team will not match last year’s record highs, retaining the entire $26.6 million arbitration class is unlikely, leaving a small slice of the budget pie for vital free-agent additions like a corner infielder or significant bullpen help. Things are not looking too easy for Hazen this off-season.
The financial incentive to non-tender a player is relatively small, but every dollar counts. Cutting a player only saves the team the difference between the arbitration estimate and the league minimum salary of $780,000. For a player like John Curtiss ($1.2 million projected), a non-tender would only save the club about $420,000. For others, however, the primary driver for a non-tender will be freeing up a valuable 40-man roster spot.
The Pitching Puzzle
The pitching side of the ledger is dominated by relievers and complicated by serious injuries, totaling $16.7 million in projected costs.
The only sure thing is starting pitcher Ryne Nelson, who is an obvious choice to tender at an estimated $3.3 million. Nelson emerged as a key rotation piece with a solid 3.16 ERA as a starter after joining the rotation, making him a certified bargain.
The tougher decisions involve the rest of the bullpen. Ryan Thompson (5.095), projected at the high end for relievers at $3.9 million, presents a major performance bet. He had an ugly 7.50 ERA through mid-May before posting a spectacular run, including a 2.00 ERA in September. The front office must bet his late-season form is sustainable. Personally, we’ve seen Thompson’s success here look like a roller coaster, but I’m a sucker for optimism. Similarly, the situation with Kevin Ginkel (5.033, $3 million) is complicated. The 2023-24 top-20 reliever had a disastrous 2025 with a 7.36 ERA, cut short by a sprained shoulder. However, his low FIP (3.64) suggests bad luck and potential for a bounce-back, making his $3 million salary a major gamble. Finally, A.J. Puk (5.124, $3.3 million) is a highly likely non-tender. He had “internal brace” elbow surgery in June and is expected to miss most, if not all, of 2026. Since he is scheduled to be a free agent after 2026, paying $3.3 million just to rehab him and occupy a 40-man spot is a non-starter. The clear casualty among the relievers is Kyle Nelson (3.081, $1 million), who struggled severely after returning from thoracic outlet surgery and is an easy cut to free up a roster spot.
Outfield Uncertainty
On the position player side, the outfield is the greatest source of uncertainty, especially with Gurriel’s injury keeping him out for Opening Day.
There is no debate surrounding catcher Gabriel Moreno (3.061), who is a lock to be tendered at a projected $2.4 million. His 8.3 bWAR since joining the D-backs makes him an extraordinary bargain. Meanwhile, Pavin Smith (4.015, $2.4 million) is likely viewed as an inexpensive DH platoon piece. Despite being a divisive figure (to underplay it), he was highly productive in a strong-side DH role (129 OPS+ over two seasons) before his quad strain. He is expected to be tendered.
The greatest anxiety lies in the outfield. Alek Thomas (3.103, $2.2 million) and Jake McCarthy (3.074, $1.9 million) both had sub-replacement-level seasons. Thomas, the everyday center fielder, was barely above replacement at 0.1 bWAR with poor defensive metrics (-7 DRS). McCarthy’s season was plagued by a miserable start, resulting in unimpressive overall offense. Both are non-tender candidates based on performance, but with Gurriel out and a limited 40-man outfield, the D-backs may have to retain one or both to preserve roster depth. Finally, utility player Ildemaro Vargas (5.129, $1.4 million), a career 78 OPS+ player who filled in at first base out of necessity, is the easiest position player cut to clear a 40-man spot.
The Boras Factor
Beyond the internal arbitration decisions, the biggest external question mark is the future of Zac Gallen, who is set to hit free agency. Arizona Sports 98.7 has reported the D-backs intend to present Gallen with the qualifying offer (a one-year deal worth roughly $22 million), but also that there is “no chance” the right-hander accepts it.
Gallen is a client of the notorious Scott Boras, an agent known for lengthy, intense free agency negotiations. Boras clients, such as former D-back Jordan Montgomery, often see their negotiations drag out, and the process can result in extremely high dollar amounts. Montgomery’s situation ahead of 2024 was so protracted that he expressed frustration and signed his one-year deal with Arizona so late he missed nearly a month of the season. That, as we saw, caused Monty to cut ties with Boras.
The true dilemma for the D-backs lies in the range of his multi-year deal. While Boras clients often seek “something north of $100 million,” Spotrac projects Gallen’s market value at a four-year deal worth just over $74.8 million, or $18.7 million annually. If this projection is accurate, retaining Gallen becomes “slightly more within range” for the D-backs than a massive contract would. However, the Diamondbacks are expected to have only $27-37 million to spend this offseason, meaning committing nearly $19 million of that on one player is a tough call, especially since Gallen put forward the “worst full season of his major league career in 2025.”
Despite the financial hurdles, owner Ken Kendrick and Gallen himself have expressed mutual interest. Kendrick implied the D-backs may be in the running to bring Gallen back, stating, “I don’t want to say it’s out of the touch of reality that we would be able to work out an arrangement to bring him back.” Gallen shared his attachment to the club, saying, “I’ve worn this uniform for seven years now… I think of myself as a D-back really. If it’s the last time, it would be a tough pill to swallow.” This leverage from his down year, combined with his hometown appeal, could open the door for a back-loaded contract with escalators and incentives, allowing General Manager Mike Hazen to utilize more available payroll on other immediate needs, like the bullpen. The question is whether other teams will make a more up-front investment, making it most likely Boras lands Gallen an eye-popping deal elsewhere. I just hope the teams on the east coast forgot how well Gallen seemed to pitch in New York this year.
The Final Math
Excluding the two locks (Moreno and Ryne Nelson, totaling $5.7 million), the Diamondbacks must decide on nine other players totaling $20.9 million. The most likely scenario involves non-tendering the clear casualties like Puk, Vargas, and Kyle Nelson to immediately create three open roster spots and save a combined nearly $6 million in arbitration estimates.
Decisions on Ginkel, Thomas, and McCarthy will be the most telling, as they represent the gamble of paying a significant sum for a bounce-back year versus eating the cost of an underwhelming player to preserve roster depth. Their fates, along with the outcome of the high-stakes Gallen negotiation and the continued commitment of Marte, will shape the Diamondbacks’ spending power and roster construction heading into 2026.
The Absurdity of the Ketel Marte Trade Rumors
While the internal machinations surrounding arbitration and the external threat of losing Gallen dominate the narrative, a semi-new rumor involving star second baseman Ketel Marte has begun to swirl, though it should be dismissed as largely absurd. The rumor, stemming from a New York Post report naming Marte as a potential trade candidate for the Mets, was fueled by Bartels’ mention that the D-backs would “listen to offers” on his six-year, $92 million remaining contract. The report suggested internal frustration with Marte over taking time off, which led to speculation that the D-backs would part ways with the three-time All-Star and 2023 NLCS MVP.
However, trading Marte would undoubtedly make the Diamondbacks a worse team unless an absolutely insane haul was offered, which the Mets may not be willing or able to provide. Besides, the contract protections for Marte make a trade highly unlikely. He already has a five-team no-trade clause, and crucially, Marte will gain 10-and-5 rights beginning in 2026. This means he can veto any potential trade, essentially giving him full control over his destination.
Marte has also been publicly committed to Arizona. Following reports of clubhouse tension, he issued a public apology, stating, “[My] goal is to always be a D-back and support the organization as long as [I] stay here,” adding, “In the nine years that [I’ve] been here, [I’ve] always tried to play hard and support the team, [my] teammates, and the organization, and that’s still going to be [my] goal.” General Manager Mike Hazen is unlikely to deal Marte simply to resolve clubhouse friction, especially when the move would make the team significantly weaker. All signs point to a Marte trade remaining firmly under the tin foil hats.
A House Call
The Diamondbacks will be making a key shift on the coaching staff, hiring J.R. House as the new third-base coach and catching coach. House, who spent the previous seven seasons in the same role for the Cincinnati Reds, is returning to a familiar organization. House spent the first seven years of his coaching career with the Diamondbacks organization, working as a minor league manager, hitting coach, and field coordinator. He also has familiarity with current assistant hitting coach Travis Denker, who was on House’s 2017 Double-A Jackson Generals team.
House, who played parts of five seasons as a catcher/first baseman for the Pirates, Astros, and Orioles, said the move was heavily influenced by his desire to be with his family in Arizona. “Being in Cincinnati was awesome,” House said. “But at the same time, we live in Arizona. This is home. It’s awesome to be able to be here with my family and just enjoy those moments and not miss nearly as many things in my kids’ lives.”
House replaces Tim Bogar, who filled in as the third-base coach after Shaun Larkin was removed mid-season. Larkin, who never seemed comfortable in the role, remains on staff as the club’s infield coach. Bogar will return to his previous minor league coaching role. The coaching philosophy House brings promises a more aggressive approach: “I’ve always liked to push the envelope. I like to get the most out of every play offensively.” This change directly addresses the controversy that plagued the position in 2025, during which the D-backs recorded 18 outs at home plate, the third-most in Major League Baseball. House will also take on catching coach duties, a role previously held by bench coach Jeff Banister.
Béisbol en el Invierno
In more encouraging news, several Diamondbacks players, including some of the team’s core position players and top prospects, are heading to the Caribbean to participate in Winter League play this off-season. The ability of major league players to participate has recently increased due to a new agreement that reduces the number of players MLB teams can prohibit from playing without citing injury or extreme fatigue.
All-Star shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, who is entering his third stint in the Dominican Winter League with Aguilas Cibaeñas, is a notable participant. After enjoying an excellent 2025 where he broke out to the tune of a seven-WAR season, hitting .290/.389/.462 with a career-high 20 home runs, it is somewhat surprising to see such an established major leaguer in the league. However, Perdomo is using the time to remain sharp in the lengthy MLB offseason grind. Believe it or not, these guys just love the game of baseball and don’t want to stop playing.
Another key infielder headed to the Dominican Republic is Jordan Lawlar, who will play for Tigres del Licey. Lawlar, who is no longer considered a prospect but an emerging major leaguer, had a difficult beginning to his 2025 campaign, which was shortened by injury. He cited his previous time in the Dominican as beneficial, and another year of reps in a competitive environment may aid him in finding consistency offensively and defensively to become an everyday player in 2026.
Although unconfirmed, All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte has also expressed his intent to play for Tigres del Licey. Other prospects participating include corner infielder Manuel Pena, who will play for Toros del Este after hitting .288/.326/.460 with 14 home runs for Double-A Amarillo, and catcher J.J. D’Orazio, who will play for Tigres de Aragua in Venezuela.
