The Tigers have built on their late success last year that led to a playoff run with a terrific season in 2025. They have the best record in the American League and have been in first place in the Central virtually all season. They had a bit of a dip with a losing record in July but have bounced back in August and have won nine of their last eleven.
Kansas City Royals (66-62) vs. Detroit Tigers (76-53) at Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
Royals: 3.80 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 3.83 runs allowed/game
(3rd)
Tigers: 4.82 runs scored/game (8th), 4.08 runs allowed/game (7th)
The Tigers’ lineup does not boast any superstars, but they are solid up and down with no weak spots. Their worst regular is Javier Báez, who despite some struggles the last few seasons has bounced back this year and was an All-Star. Colt Keith has been on a tear, hitting .377/.443/.623 with three home runs over his last 17 games. Kerry Carpenter is equally hot, hitting .308/.370/.723 with six home runs over his last 20 games. On the cold side, Gleyber Torres is hitting .148/.266/.167 over his last 14 games.
Zach McKinstry has loved hitting at Comerica, batting .319/.399/.578 at home. Spencer Torkelson feasts on lefties, hitting .279/.381/.589 with 24 of his 26 home runs against them. Keith largely sits against them, as he’s hitting just .143 against southpaws. Torkelson has the third-highest flyball rate in baseball at 51.6 percent. Torres is just 1-for-21 (.048) in his career against Michael Wacha. Dillon Dingler is hitting .338/.429/.519 with runners in scoring position, the tenth-highest average in baseball in those situations.
Detroit has the second-lowest stolen base total, but they are successful at an 80 percent clip. No team has been picked off fewer times than they have. The Tigers have been pretty average across the board defensively. They are third in the highest caught stealing rate from their catchers, nabbing 31 percent of attempts.
The Royals will avoid Tigers ace Tarik Skubal in this series. Casey Mize has a 4.99 ERA against the Royals in 12 career starts. He has given up 22 runs in 26 innings over his last six starts. Mize likes to throw his splitter a lot, but opponents are hitting .296 against it this year. Salvador Perez is a career .433 (13-for-30) hitter against him with a home run.
Jack Flaherty struck out nine in seven shutout innings against the Astros in his last start. He has the sixth-highest strikeout rate among qualified starters at 29.1 percent. He has the seventh-highest flyball rate at 45 percent. Opponents pull the ball against him 44.7 percent of the time. He has fared much better at home with a 3.45 ERA at Comerica versus a 6.08 ERA on the road. He has won all four career starts against the Royals with a 0.72 ERA.
Chris Paddack has a 5.91 ERA in four starts since the Tigers acquired him at the trade deadline, including eight runs allowed against his old Twins ballclub in his last start. He has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate at 17.2 percent. He hasn’t gone more than six innings in a start since June 1. Mike Yastrzemski is a career .389 (7-for-18) hitter against him with two home runs.
The Tigers had a dominant bullpen last year, but it has been much more mediocre this year with a 3.97 ERA with the third-lowest strikeout rate. Will Vest has had most of the save opportunities, converting 18 of 23 chances. But A.J. Hinch has also called upon newly acquired Kyle Finnegan, who has yet to allow a run in eight games, and has converted all four save opportunities since joining Detroit. Brenan Hanifee has a 15.5 percent strikeout rate, tenth-lowest among relievers. Tommy Kahnle throws his change up 83 percent of the time, probably why opponents have a 52 percent pull rate against him.
The Tigers took three out of four at home against the Royals back in April, and are 5-2 against Kansas City this season. They’re 42-24 at home this year, the fifth-best home record in baseball. The Royals have been beating up on losing teams on their recent homestand to climb back into the race. This weekend poses a true test to determine whether the comeback trail is real, or it was paved with fool’s gold.
