A tectonic shift may be required to change the course of the 2026 NBA Finals
Two Games, Same Story
Twice in this series, San Antonio has built significant leads. Twice, it hasn’t mattered.
Through two games, the Spurs have been good enough to control stretches but not disciplined enough to finish them. That distinction has defined the Finals so far.
The Knicks have reduced the game to its simplest elements and executed them better. Their three-point production comes from three repeatable sources: Karl-Anthony Towns above
the break, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges mainly in the corners, and Landry Shamet as a rhythm shooter.
Nothing exotic. Just precision.
The Wembanyama Problem
Victor Wembanyama’s Finals performance has, by his standards, been underwhelming, not just in output, but in impact.
I have aggregated the “concussion” and the “flagrant 2” games into one, thus counting 16 games pre-Finals.
Finals vs. rest of the post season:
Points: 27.5 vs 24.6
- Rebounds: 10.5 vs 11.4
- Blocks: 3.8 vs 3.5
- Assists: 2.0 vs 2.9
- Steals: 1.5 vs 1.0
- Turnovers: 5.0 vs 2.9
- PF: 2.0 vs 2.75
- FG%: 40.5% vs 50.9%
- 3PT%: 26.7% vs 37%
- FT%: 81% vs 87%
Compared to earlier rounds, his efficiency is down, turnovers are up, and his influence has diminished. The eye test confirms it: less force, less inevitability, fewer moments where the game bends around him.
From the Knicks’ perspective, Towns’ shooting (43% from deep) stretches the Spurs’ defense because it is embedded in structure, rhythmic, balanced, with options. KAT’s long threes, top of the key, are in rhythm and he always maintain his triple-threat options, which has led to some impressive drives to the rim leaving Vic behind, or he timely passes the ball (4 assists per game) to his teammates.
On the other end, Victor’s attempts look like the threes a SG or a PG would take, especially someone like Curry. Wembanyama’s threes are often high difficulty attempts that disconnect possessions when they miss.
A Matchup the Knicks Are Winning
Karl-Anthony Towns has contained Wembanyama effectively. He is mobile enough to stay in front, disciplined with fouls, and large enough to contest. KAT has reduced his “silly” fouls to a point where it doesn’t impact him anymore and he can maintain defensive pressure for 48 minutes.
Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson have limited second chances. Individually small wins, collectively significant. The result is a version of Wembanyama that feels manageable.
Vic’s troubles are not just behind the 3-point line, they can also be found in ISO situations when he faces the basket. Too many dribbles leading to turnovers and difficult shot attempts, especially in Game 1.
The Paradox of His Development
At 15, Wembanyama turned down Barcelona’s academy offer. He explained he did not want to be confined to a traditional center role. He chose development built on versatility, ball-handling, shooting, and freedom. Vic has given his youth coaches at Nanterre a lot of credit for giving him this freedom to experiment and develop skills rarely seen in prospects of his height.
Beyond his unique skillsets, Victor Wembanyama has showed a maturity, a drive to succeed, and work ethics never seen before from such a young person. What die-hard Spurs fans have known for almost 3 years now, is that Vic’s unique abilities come with some downfalls. There have been games where Vic will shoot too many threes or will take too many dribbles in traffic.
That path created extraordinary upside, but also a tension. His game is built on optionality, not constraint. For three seasons, that balance favoured the upside. In this series, it has shifted.And unfortunately for Vic and the Spurs, the Knicks are clearly banking on this, and it’s working.
His youth coaches and his family’s open-mindedness supported his unique development. It might be time for Victor to demonstrate some open-mindedness of his own and make some changes.
What once gave him an edge may now require recalibration.
Down 0–2, the Spurs have no margin for error. Their ceiling runs through Wembanyama.
The “Big Fundamental” Adjustment. Not long-term. Immediate.
Since Victor Wembanyama joined the Spurs organization, many fans have been left wondering what kind of signature move, he could / should add to his arsenal. There are games where he seems unstoppable and others where he looks like a mere mortal rather than an Alien.
With 2 games left to avoid a sweep, there is no time to develop a Kareem Sky Hook or a Timmy Bank Shot. Many fans have been asking for something like this, but it would take hours in the gym to perfect such moves.
Victor’s incremental adjustment that I think is required would already be a Big Fundamental Shift for him. Vic needs to work in the low post, not facing the basket, but playing his back against his defender and the rim. We keep hearing that Vic is not strong enough to gain positioning in the low post. Well, after battling the likes of Clingan, Gobert, Randle, Hartenstein, Holmgren, Dort, KAT and Robinson, I disagree.
Vic has managed to get the ball in the high post; there is no reason he could not position himself in the low post. He has the will power to do so. Establishing deeper position in the low post is the key here.
Second incremental change, after receiving the ball, he needs to stay tall on the catch. So far, the Finals referees have been better than those he experienced in the Western Conference playoffs, they will protect him to some extent. Otherwise, when he receives the ball, he has a tendency to lower his center of gravity, to avoid to be pushed around, but he immediately loses his height advantage.
Final adjustment, Vic needs to use his Hakeem’s moves. Vic’s mobility and length are better than anybody of his height in the world. 9 times out 10 he would win this battle and would get a chance to score, being so much closer to the rim.
Down 2-0, only a drastic adjustment can change the course of history, and it must come from Victor Wembanayma. The coaching staff might even consider bringing Mason Plumlee for short sequences to add a banging body in the paint when Victor is establishing position.
I don’t think the Spurs can now win the Finals without a 40-20 game from Vic. To pull this off, especially at the Madison Square Garden, he needs to demonstrate he can adjust his skillset to the circumstances.
Simple, but critical.
There is still a path. Narrow, but real.
If Wembanyama simplifies, anchors, and imposes himself, the series changes. Until it doesn’t.
Spurs in seven.
