Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website,
www.thephillygodfather.com [thephillygodfather.com].Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles, 4:35 p.m. Sunday
The Line: Eagles minus-5.5/Total: 44.5
What is the line telling you:
There’s a
lot of uncertainty surrounding this Eagles offense with A.J. Brown being shipped to the Patriots and Sean Mannion taking over as the new offensive coordinator. Normally, I’d shy away from laying more than a field goal with a team playing a division opponent in Week 1. But let’s be honest—this Commanders team has plenty of problems of its own.
Washington will be without offensive lineman Laremy Tunsil, which means Jayden Daniels could be running for his life against an Eagles defensive line that I believe is arguably the best in the NFL. That’s a bad recipe for Washington and should lead to fewer scoring opportunities.
The expectations are pretty damn low for Washington in the betting market this season, with Vegas setting their regular-season win total at just 7.5 games.
Even without A.J. Brown, the Eagles should be able to move the football by doing what Philly does best—putting Saquon Barkley in the backfield and running the ball right down Washington’s throat. The Eagles have a top-five-rated offensive line, while Washington ranked 27th in the NFL last season in opponent yards per rushing attempt and didn’t do much in the offseason to convince me they’ve fixed that problem.
The new offensive coordinator in Philadelphia does concern me a little, and this is still a nasty NFC East rivalry game. But the Eagles are tough, physical, and protect the football, while the Commanders had the second-worst turnover differential in the NFL last season.
Bottom line:
At -5.5, I like the Eagles, but I think the better bet is the total. Give me the Under 44.5. I expect the Commanders’ offensive line to get bullied by Vic Fangio’s defense, and I also expect some growing pains from the Birds’ offense with a new offensive coordinator. This has the feel of one of those old-school Philly games: defense, Saquon, field position, and make the other team earn every damn yard.
Prop bets for the game:
Saquon Barkley anytime TD -130
Dallas Goedert anytime TD +220
Jayden Daniels over 30 rushing yards -175
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
