Maybe the joke’s on me.
Before the season even started, as baseball experts and national publications kept insisting that Lance McCullers Jr. would be part of the Houston Astros’ starting rotation, I wasn’t buying it. Not even a little. I questioned it constantly. I doubted it openly. And realistically, I believed there was no chance McCullers would not only make the rotation, but stay in it.
Truth be told, I was done with him.
At least three different times last season, I reached my breaking point.
I even said on my radio show that I didn’t want to talk about McCullers again until he actually earned it—until he performed at a level worthy of the attention. His track record, paired with the endless cycle of injuries, setbacks, and uncertainty over the past few years, made it hard to believe anything else. It felt far more likely that 2026 would be his last season in an Astros uniform, if he even made it through the year.
And then came his first start.
To my surprise, it was nothing short of impressive.
Sure, there were a couple of hard-hit balls that just barely stayed foul, but at the end of the day, he did his job. He pitched effectively. He competed. And most importantly, he helped the Astros secure a win. It wasn’t just serviceable, it was encouraging.
At the same time, my confidence in another arm was trending in the opposite direction.
Coming into the season, I was far more bullish on Cristian Javier. I believed he was the one poised to return to form, the one the Astros could count on again. In my mind, Javier had a legitimate shot to work his way into the top three of the rotation by midseason.
Instead, we’ve seen the exact opposite.
Javier has looked nothing like the pitcher Astros fans remember. He’s committing the cardinal sins of starting pitching: issuing walks, hitting batters, and consistently putting runners on base to start innings. And as any pitcher knows, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Those runners? They’re scoring.
Despite a noticeable uptick in fastball velocity, Javier’s inability to locate his pitches has completely undermined his effectiveness. His command is off. His control is shaky. And his inability to consistently throw strikes has led to a spike in walks and a lack of trust on the mound. His “invisaball” has been located anywhere but near the zone.
Through two starts, he hasn’t looked like a reliable major league option, especially not for a team with the expectations the Astros carry into 2026. In fact, he’s looked more like a pitcher who belongs in Triple-A than one you can depend on every fifth day.
And that’s where things get interesting.
With Spencer Arrighetti closing in on a return and the Astros considering a six-man rotation, there are real decisions looming. We’ve seen this movie before. Last year, “mysterious” or conveniently timed injuries played a role in managing struggling arms, most notably with McCullers himself.
Could that scenario play out again, this time with Javier?
It’s not out of the question.
The good news for Houston Astros is that they have depth. Between options at the major league level and reinforcements in Sugar Land, Dana Brown and Joe Espada have flexibility. If Javier continues to struggle, there are viable replacements ready to step in and stabilize the rotation.
But before we go too far in either direction, before we anoint McCullers as “back” or write Javier off completely, it’s worth remembering something.
We’ve been here before.
Last season, after one strong outing against the Dodgers, McCullers had everyone believing he had turned the corner for good. It didn’t last. That memory alone is enough to pump the brakes on any sweeping conclusions based on a single start.
So where does that leave us?
For me, it means staying cautious.
McCullers deserves credit for what he showed, but I need to see more. A few more quality outings. Consistency. Durability. Proof that this isn’t just another flash before a setback.
As for Javier, the leash might be shorter than expected. The potential is still there because of his track record, but the results have to follow, and soon.
Because in a season where expectations are high, the Astros don’t have the luxury of waiting too long for anyone to figure it out.
So I’ll ask you:
Who do you trust more right now? And how do you see this rotation shaking out between now and the All-Star break?
