Injury news was on the top of everyone’s mind Sunday afternoon in Chicago. If you are both a Cubs and Bears fan, you were probably more concerned about the injury news than this game. Hopefully, both injured Chicago sports stars avoided any of the worst potential outcomes of rough looking injuries. I once had a facial injury from a struck ball. Mine had a whole different trajectory, but I can absolutely attest to how much the cut above my eye bled. While I physically felt fine (needing 12 stitches
along the eyebrow line), I bled more than I could possibly have imagined. So I wasn’t surprised at all with Alex Bregman going straight to the locker room on that. The injury looks bad, but if the orbital bone is intact, I would assume he should be fine in a few days. With the playoffs all but clinched and Pedro Ramirez’s stated best position being third, I could imagine giving Alex Bregman the first two games of the Marlins series off. Obviously, you want to get him back on the proverbial horse, but the thing that matters most is him being ready to go a week from Tuesday.
Between the lines, the news was better. Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Cub offense jumped on the Reds early and David Peterson and three relievers made sure they didn’t need all of that in a runaway win. I had said that a lopsided one would be nice heading into the last week and I’m glad that came to be. On both sides of the ball, what I said in the preview happened. Peterson locked in early (he’s either been very good or very bad) and the Cubs made former first round pick Rhett Lowder work hard and forced him to throw strikes. That was the perfect recipe on Sunday afternoon for the 87th win of the season. They needed it too, as all of the other NL Wild Card hopefuls won Sunday. The Diamondbacks did what they needed to in order to stay alive, but the clock is running out on them and they face elimination early in the week.
PCA was the big story of the day. He extended his Cub lefty homer record in a season to 45. It’s also the most homers by an under 25 player in Cub history. Taking numbers away from Billy Williams and Ernie Banks suggests a spectacular early career path. He also stole a base and needs just two steals in the last week to reach the hallowed ground of 40/40. He pulled into a tie with Kyle Schwarber for the most homers in baseball. I’d hope it was over weeks ago, but PCA should be creeping towards unanimous MVP. You are being pretty stubborn at this point to vote for anyone else. I remember saying he had to get well past Shohei Ohtani in order to win the award and he’s definitely done that. His five-tool play should net that MVP, no questions asked. I know the RBI stat has fallen out of favor, but he’s four off of the major league lead there. He already leads in runs scored. It’s getting to where he is first or just outside of first in every offensive statistic while also being one of the best defensive players in the league and arguably the best.
One of the things about PCA is that he isn’t per se streaky. He was 0-for-10 across the first two games of this series. But he had a big game last Wednesday against the Braves and then another Sunday. With two terrible days in between. One of the key skills of star players is the ability to not get into prolonged slumps and to be able to get very hot, very quickly. He has been such an incredible joy to watch this season.
A hat tip to the rest of the Cub offense. They had 13 hits in total and drew four walks. They slugged three homers off of Reds reliever Carson Spiers who had a terrible day on the mound. Kudos to the Reds for throwing an actual pitcher in the ninth inning while eight runs down.
An off day now ahead of the final six games of the season.
Three Positives:
- It’s gotta be Pete. Homer, double, single, stolen base, three runs, two runs driven in. Simply the Best this season.
- David Peterson. Blessed with a lead before he ever took the mound and then a five run lead after three, he attacked and struck out seven while allowing three hits and a walk. I saw an incredible statistic on the broadcast. He’s actually getting a few less ground balls than he did in New York. But, the opponent’s batting average on ground balls is around 100 points lower as a Cub. Cub defense is incredible and it is a nice pairing. Don’t be surprised if some guys who allow a lot of grounders try to find a way to Chicago.
- Pedro Ramirez had three hits in the game, drove in two runs and scored another. He could be very important for a few days and it isn’t hard to imagine him taking a key plate appearance or two in the postseason. Quite a debut for him.
Game 156, September 20: Cubs 9, Reds 1 (87-69)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.147). 3-5, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 R, SB
- Hero: David Peterson (.145). 6 IP, 22 BF, 3 H, BB, R, 7 K (W 6-2)
- Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.118). 1-1, BB, RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.048). 1-5, HR, RBI, R
- Goat: Miguel Amaya (-.033). 0-4
- Kid: Michael Conforto (-.022). 1-5, HR, RBI, R
Notes: Since there seem to always be questions about hitters with a homer and negative WPA, Michael Conforto’s was worth .044 (but his earlier strikeout with the bases loaded was -.043) and Seiya’s homer was .002.
WPA Play of the Game: Pedro Ramirez batted with the bases loaded and two outs with the Cubs up three in the third. He singled, driving in a run. (.088)
Reds Play of the Game: With runners at second and third and two outs in the first inning, the Cubs up one, Rhett Lowder got Nico Hoerner to ground out. (.052).
Note: 10 of 79 plays in this game registered as .000.
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 155 Winner: Daniel Palencia received 60 of 47 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Alex Bregman +26
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +25.5
- Carson Kelly +17.5
- Shōta Imanaga +15
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Nico Hoerner -16
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -17.5
- Seiya Suzuki -20
Scoreboard Watching: As noted in the open, all four remaining Wild Card hopefuls won. With each team having six games remaining, the Cubs and Padres are tied (Cubs have the tiebreaker), the Phillies one back and the Diamondbacks three back of Philadelphia. Further, all four teams are off on Monday (as much of the NL is). The Phillies are technically in the worst spot of the three teams currently in the wild card spots, but also have all six games at home. The Diamondbacks finish with a six-game road trip, though it starts in Colorado where the Rockies will again lose 100 games and finish with the worst record in the league. The Phillies host the Brewers, who have won eight of 10 and haven’t let up yet. It should be an interesting final week.
Up Next: That off day Monday and then the Cubs will start having one eye on the playoffs the following week. Their margin is so slim, that they don’t really have any choice other than to make sure their three starters of choice are lined up to throw the three games. Of course, there is immense value in the top Wild Card, so they’ll still fight to the finish for that. But among the six likely playoff teams, there’s no real easy out. The Phillies might be the worst of the six right now today, but some would have had them in the top three a week or so ago.
The Cubs took two out of three from the Marlins (76-80) just over two weeks ago. The Marlins are putting up a fight down the stretch, but also coming up short a lot. Offensively, they are eighth in OPS, though only 23rd in homers. They are second in steals. On the Pitching side, they are 19th in strikeouts, ninth in opponent average and 14th in WHIP. So they are above average offensively and slightly above average pitching. The core of a competitive team exists.
Shōta Imanaga (11-10, 3.80) will start the opener. He’s won his last three starts. allowing four runs over 18 innings, throwing exactly six innings in each. One of those wins was against the Marlins in Miami. The deal is the same as it always is. Keep the ball in the park and he’s incredibly effective because he doesn’t really walk anyone and doesn’t allow a ton of hits. He struck out eight in his last one and the Cubs actually visited the mound during a stretch where he was rolling. I think they are watching very carefully to make sure he’s not tipping pitches and I suspect that’s been a problem of his.
30-year-old Janson Junk (6-9, 4.50) starts for the Marlins. The right hander has just 60 big league appearances and 46 starts at the age of 30. The vast majority of that work is the last two years for the Marlins, a rebuilding team. He’s been a bit worse this year. He was the opposing pitcher and got the loss in that game against Imanaga a few weeks ago. The Cubs didn’t do much with him, though: One run on three hits and a walk. Maybe the second time will be the charm. The Mets were the most recent team to see him for a second time. They put up eight runs in three innings against him. But, just before that he saw the Nationals twice in the span of eight days and the results were almost identical. His 75 pitches against the Cubs last time were the most pitches he’d made in a game since August 17. So expect about four or five innings.
The Marlin bullpen has the lowest opponent batting average allowed. So you want to get to the starter. The weakness of their pen is that they have the 12th most walks allowed. They’ve allowed close to 50 more walks than the Cub bullpen (in only nine more innings).
If the Cub offense does what it does, work consistent plate appearances, start to finish, and Imanaga keeps the ball in the park, I think the Cubs can put together a little streak here.
