The Minnesota Vikings start off the 2026 season with a rivalry game right away, and while that game is against the Green Bay Packers — more on that later — there’s no better time to get the lay of the land in the rest of the division than RIGHT NOW.
Let’s talk about the Chicago Bears. One year after finishing 5-12, the Bears almost completely flipped the script in their maiden voyage under Ben Johnson, going 11-6 and winning the NFC North before falling at Soldier Field to the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional
Round.
Were the Bears for real last year? Is a straight shot back to the top of the NFC North imminent for the Windy City Warriors?
We asked the experts from Daily Norseman in our latest edition of the roundtable:
I’m feeling distinct 2023 Vikings vibes from this Bears team, thoughts?
Brandon Warne: I guess it’s kind of weird for me to reply to this considering I also asked the question, but hear me out a bit: I don’t think any team will ever go 13-4 again with a negative point differential. But at the same time, the Bears were 11-6 with just a plus-26 point differential. By expected wins and losses, that should look more like a 9-8 team — and now one that has to play not only a difficult NFC North slate, but a first-place schedule, besides.
Here’s a list of teams who have won 11 or more games with a point differential worse than the Bears’ plus-26 last season:
- 2012 Colts (11-5, minus-30)
- 2020 Browns (11-5, minus-11)
- 2022 Vikings (13-4, minus-3)
- 2004 Falcons (11-5, plus-3)
- 2023 Eagles (11-6, plus-5)
- 2019 Seahawks (11-5, plus-7)
- 2014 Cardinals (11-5, plus-11)
- 2003 Panthers (11-5, plus-21)
That’s not many. Four of those teams finished .500 or worse the next season — the 2004 Panthers, 2005 Falcons, 2021 Browns and of course, the 2023 Vikings.
Then again, the Eagles won 14 games, the Cardinals won 13, the Seahawks 12 and the Colts 11. There’s definitely a divide — I just think I have the Bears more in the first group than the second, with added emphasis on a tough divisional schedule along with a first-place schedule, besides. The Lions played that schedule last season and ended up 9-8, which feels about right for this Bears group.
Christopher Gates: I think the Bears are a bit different from the 2022 Vikings in that the Bears only had one game last season where they really got thumped, and that came against the Lions in Week 2, after that incredibly deflating loss to the Vikings in Week 1 on Monday night. When the 2022 Vikings lost, they went out and got the crap beaten out of them and managed to finish the season with a negative point differential despite going 13-4. Now, if Caleb Williams goes down for the Bears the way that Kirk Cousins went down for the Vikings in 2023, all bets are off, because I don’t think the Tyson Bagent Experience™ would be able to push them to nearly the heights that Williams is capable of. Absent that, however, I think this Bears team is a lot better positioned than that Vikings team was.
Warren Ludford: Yeah, I suspect the Bears will fall back considerably this year. I’m guessing 7-10 record. They have a much more difficult schedule than last season and led the league in takeaways and had the fewest giveaways. Reversion to the mean could be significant.
Shawn C: Maybe, though I’d argue that injuries derailed the Vikings more than anything in 2023. If Cousins hadn’t gone down on that crappy Lambeau Field turf, I think they’d have returned to the playoffs. It just seems like the Bears have a unique ability to pull off random, magical seasons, then quickly revert to form. Think 2001, 2006, 2010, 2018, etc. I do think the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson combo is legit, so maybe this will prove more lasting. I just don’t see their absolutely ridiculous +22 turnover differential (five more than the 2nd-place Texans) being repeated.
What Bears player do you feel is the most overrated?
BW: It’s Caleb Williams for me. The Jordan Love-esque 27-7 TD-to-INT ratio belies a scattershot accuracy that I just can’t see being sustainable over another full season. Sure, he can grow and improve — look at Love and Josh Allen as examples — but I don’t think it’ll be without some growing pains at first. I’m expecting a bumpy year from Williams.
CG: Rome Odunze. I know the rule used to be that it took wide receivers coming out of college a couple of years to adjust to the NFL, but that has gone increasingly by the wayside in recent years, and while Odunze has been productive in spurts, he hasn’t really wowed anyone through his first two seasons. Maybe “overrated” isn’t the right word for Odunze, but even though the Bears’ passing offense hasn’t been as high-flying as a lot of teams in his first two years in the NFL, for a guy who was taken with a top-ten selection, I guess you’d just expect more than ~1400 yards in two years. Perhaps now that D.J. Moore has been dealt to Buffalo, those numbers will go up a bit, but people now seem to be in love with Luther Burden, so he may cut into any potential targets Odunze might get instead.
WL: Caleb Williams. He was one of the least accurate starting quarterbacks in the league last year, yet some consider him a top-10 QB.
SC: Dayo Odeyingbo, given the contract. Before the season-ending injury, he hadn’t performed up to his potential. It’s a big year for him. With the secondary losses, Odeyingbo and the defensive line will play a major role in the Bears’ success or failure this season.
How about underrated?
BW: I don’t know if it counts, but I wrote the questions so I’m going with it anyway — it’s Ben Johnson and the situation he’s set up for Williams and the offense. It feels like the perfect offensive yin to Brian Flores’ defensive yang as it pertains to building a system with personnel fits tailored to players and vice versa. Put Williams in a bubble and you can massage some of his inadequacies and inaccuracies in a way that still allows a team to win. Of course, I also think a lot of this applies to Kevin O’Connell, and while I’m still a huge fan, there have definitely been periods of transition in his tenure as well.
CG: He doesn’t get as much ink as a lot of running backs do, but D’Andre Swift has been a pretty solid back in this league for a long time. He’s been a 1,000-yard guy in two of the last three seasons and led the Bears in touchdowns last year. I know a lot of people are high on Kyle Monangai, and for good reason, but Swift is the sort of steady presence an offense needs. He’s also usually good for about 50-60 catches a year, which is something that can’t be discounted. As I said, if you make a list of the top running backs in the NFL, Swift probably isn’t one of the first names you’re going to mention, but he’s definitely somewhere in the top half, in my opinion.
WL: Colston Loveland is pretty good, probably not talked about enough.
SC: Jonah Jackson. Everything Ben Johnson wants to do depends on dominant offensive line play. Jackson was very good last year and was instrumental in the Bears’ offensive improvements. Vikings fans are well-versed in the highs and lows of the Garrett Bradbury experience, and Jackson will be needed to anchor the interior.
What do the Bears do well that worries you most as a Vikings fan?
BW: They mask their issues well. They have two solid backs and a quarterback you have to account for. What their pass-catching corps lacks in experience and, at times, durability, they make up for in electricity. The defense is hard-nosed and had a few of the splash plays like the 2022 Vikings did which spurred them to that incredible, if a bit unusual, season.
CG: They run the football. A lot. And they’re really good at it. When people think of Ben Johnson, they usually think of the sort of high-flying offense that he ran when he was the offensive coordinator with the Lions, but that offense is really built around running the football. The Bears had the #3 rush offense in the league last season in terms of yards/game, and if they can get the run game going in can feed into a lot of other things for them. The Vikings, for as good as they are defensively, have had issues stopping the run. Hopefully they’ll be better at it this season, because if they aren’t, those two games against Chicago are going to be even more difficult.
WL: They have a good offensive scheme and a great slate of skill position players.
SC: Ben Johnson’s system. Yes, talent helped in Detroit, but Johnson seems uniquely adept at exploiting holes in the 10- to 15-yard range in the middle of the field within Flores’ system. For some reason, he reads coverage disguises and shifts better than anyone else and consistently gets receivers to the vulnerable areas.
What’s your record prediction for the Bears this season?
BW: I feel like you could say 10-7 for every team in this division and not be too far off the mark. But I’m going 9-8 again due to the tough schedule and the bumps along the road I foresee the Bears having to navigate. It’s a “best of the lousiest/lousiest of the best” situation and a fourth-place finish, for my money.
CG: For as much as the experts have talked up Detroit this season, I honestly think that the Bears are going to end up winning the NFC North again this season. They’ll probably end up somewhere in the 11-6/12-5 range, and that game at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 18 is probably going to have a great deal of importance for them. I just hope it has at least some level of importance for us as well.
WL: 7-10. The Bears defense is underwhelming and the combination of a tougher schedule and a lot of turnover luck last year- and a lot of one score wins- will come back to bite them this year.
SC: I have the Bears falling back to 9-8 for the reasons above and because they’re also trading the 4th-place schedule in 2025 for a 1st-place schedule in 2026, which gives them games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Given these factors, would two fewer wins seem implausible?
