Location: Colorado Springs, CO (Falcon Stadium)
Date/Time: Saturday, September 20th at 5 p.m. (MT)
Television: CBS Sports Network
Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
Head-to-Head: Boise State leads the all-time series 8-4, and have won six of the last seven match-ups.
It’s already week four of the college football season! Coming off of a forgettable showing in Logan, Utah last week, the Falcons will have to be inhospitable hosts to last years Group of Five darlings, Boise State if they want to get back
in the win column. Something that hasn’t come easy for any team. And not for the Fightin’ Falcons since 2021.
Now that we’re two games into the schedule, we now know a little more about this years Air Force team than we did in August. Emphasis on “little more”. One thing that we do know is for certain; being on the wrong end of the turnover battle by giving the ball away three times will all but guarantee an 0-2 start to Mountain West play for Troy Calhoun’s squad.
There were a lot of encouraging things that are easy to lose sight of when you lose by three scores. Unfortunately, the red flags that reared in their Conference opener versus Utah State overshadow what looked like a promising run game, and another very productive showing by Cade Harris, who is proving to be one of the nations more dynamic playmakers. He currently leads the Mountain West in all-purpose yards per game with 156 (4th nationally) as well as yards per reception 29 (3rd nationally).
Similar to Air Force, the Broncos faced teams at two completely opposite ends of the competitive spectrum so far this season. After opening the year with a drubbing at the hands of USF (Who also went on to beat Florida the following week), Boise State took out their frustration on an overmatched Easter Washington team. Air Force got to enjoy that FCS confidence builder before taking their shellacking. The season is still young, and both of these teams’ goals are still attainable. Depending on the results of this game though, some of those goals may be all but squashed for somebody.
Three things to look for:
1. Quarterback Play
I don’t know if we are any closer to figuring out who’s “the guy” for Air Force. Josh Johnson and Liam Szarka have both made big plays, and regrettable ones. Hopefully all of those forgettable moments were spent in last weeks game against the Aggies. If I had to guess, the staff is looking for consistency more than anything.
The big plays against Bucknell were nice. But it’s that consistent command and execution of this offense that’s required for the Falcons to reach their full potential. That means settling for a lot of modest gains when the read you want isn’t available. And it most certainly means not putting the ball in harms way, which happened way too often last week.
Troy Calhoun seemed to favor Szarka in those “gotta have it” tough yardage carries. Maybe there is something to that? He’s shown to be the slightly more productive ball carrier of the two. And maybe more importantly, he didn’t put the ball on the ground, unlike Johnson who fumbled twice, losing one of them. He also forced the ball into double coverage where there appeared no chance for an Air Force player to make a play on the ball when the game was still very much undecided. Johnson also had a pretty hard to watch interception of his own, but that came later in the game when risks had to be taken.
Boise State doesn’t have a quarterback dilemma on their sidelines. In fact, to the surprise of many, there was so much confidence shown in Maddux Madsen in their opener, they appeared to forget how an effective run game carried them to the College Football Playoffs last year. That may of ended up costing them against USF, but Madsen and the offense appear pretty balanced, rolling up 500 yards per game.
Quarterback play for both of these team will be worth keeping an eye on. But make no mistake, the margin for error that Szarka and/or Johnson have is essentially non-existent. Whereas Madsen can probably afford to take a few more chances.
2. Testing of the Air Force secondary, early and often
I’m not suggesting that Spencer Danielson is all of the sudden going to take a page out the late great Pirate himself, Mike Leach’s air raid playbook. But Danielson is a good coach, with an experienced quarterback and talented supporting cast. They saw what we all saw last week against Utah State. And that was an inexperienced secondary that had no answers.
These are the things that are going to happen when you play a lot of young guys in the secondary. Apart from Houston Hendrix, who is a Junior, the three deep for the Air Force secondary is nothing but Sophomores and Freshman. Depending on how you view that hybrid Spur position, that is five of their 11 positions! There were some tremendous long term payoffs in the past allowing young guys to take lumps early as they developed into standouts. These guys are taking some lumps, but let’s see their counter tactic.
That is the complete opposite of the defensive line, which is laden with experienced senior. You wouldn’t know it based on the box score, but the Falcons have a formidable front seven. If the backend of their defense can grow at an accelerated pace, the defense will be just fine. That appears a major ‘if’ right now though. They are going to have to take major strides from last week if they hope to slow the offense opposite of them this Saturday.
3. Running Back Tandems
While it’s common that a running back duo, or even committee is responsible for helping making the Air Force offense go. That was not the way the Broncos rolled in 2024. However, after last year’s historical season that featured a generational talent and Heisman snub in Ashton Jeanty, they have definitely taken more of a distribution of carries approach. And when you look at the talent they have between Sire Gaines, Dylan Rile and Malik Sherrod, it’s no wonder.
After averaging nearly eight yards per carry in relief of Jeanty last year, a lot of people thought the offense would run through Sire Gaines. And while he does have the most carries on the team, it’s actually Dylan Riley averaging a whopping 11 yards per touch that is the team’s leading rusher… By one yard. Both Riley and Gaines average 71 yards per game. While they complement one another nicely, it’s an embarrassment of riches when you get to their third guy, who is a sixth year transfer from Fresno State, Malik Sherrod. That is the definition of depth when your third leading rusher has over 2,000 yards and 17 touchdowns in their career. And that’s not even considering the 600+ kick return yards he brings to the fold.
Air Force has a stable of ball carriers of their own. While their yards are little more distributed among a larger population, they have a few guys who can also make you pay. Most notably the aforementioned Cade Harris. But it’s those two primary fullbacks that really stir the drink for the Falcons. I would expect Dylan Carson and Owen Allen to test the inside of the Bronco defensive line enough to create opportunities for Harris and Kade Frew to get to the edge.
The running game for Air Force was a little puzzling last week. Kade Frew got just one carry in the entire game. This is a guy who averages 10 yards per carry this year, and over six per carry for his career. I would expect to see a lot more of Dylan Carson this week, and certainly more of Frew.
Prediction:
Air Force is one of the few Mountain West teams that consistently plays Boise State tough. The 4-8 record isn’t anything to brag about, but sadly most teams in the Conference would love to have that win percentage against Boise. And Air Force is a respectable 2-3 versus the Broncos in Colorado Springs. Ironically, the last time they defeated Boise State was on the Smurf Turf back in 2021.
What’s more ironic is that when Troy Calhoun’s squad enjoyed a three game winning streak against the Bronco’s from 2014-2016, it was largely impacted by turnovers. Most of which the secondary was responsible for. Unfortunately, Weston Steelhammer is out of eligibility, along with his 18 career interceptions (3 of which came against Boise State). So they are going to have to see who can step up to be the next impact player in this young secondary. They have had a lot of them in the past, and despite one game, there could certainly be one on this 2025 team. But time will tell.
All of that is to say, I think the athleticism that Boise State brings to the table is going to be difficult to deal with. The running game and relentless pursuit of the Broncos defense are things that can really wear you out. The Air Force offense would have to execute flawlessly and keep Boise off of the field to have a real shot at this one, and that is a tall order. As I just mentioned, the Broncos have some guys on that defense who can really get after it.
Most people aren’t going to expect Air Force to win this game, and I am one of those people. But I am still optimistic about this team overall. So even if it is in a losing effort, we need to see the defense take strides, especially in that secondary, and that is worth building on. If they can do that, and keep off of the turnover column, they could find themselves singing second.
I haven’t seen enough to confidently say I expect that yet though, no matter how optimistic I am. I think the Falcons are going to have to wait until Hawaii comes to town the following week, to try and stack another in the win column. Speaking of stacking wins, there aren’t any that will come easy the rest of the year as the schedule is relentless from here on out. Which reinforces why no matter the result against Boise on Saturday, they need to continue getting better as a team each and every week.
Air Force loses it’s second straight. Boise State 34 – Air Force 21
