The Bryce Elder saga continues. At least it’s a happier one than in years past… though what about the MLB-best Braves isn’t, at this point?
Elder got things started on the right foot this year with an altered pitch mix and augmented slider, with three good outings in his first four tries. His collective line in that span (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) was 19/68/84. He then kinda-sorta regressed back to what he was before this season — not awful or anything, but this was the downside of the mechanical inconsistency
that’s plagued him for two-and-a-half seasons now. In his next three outings, his line was 79/88/111, with his proverbial bacon getting saved by a low HR/FB rate. His last two starts, though, have been the positive end of being inconsistent: 38/78/76, with no HR/FB bacon-saving needed.
In those most recent two outings, Elder morphed into more of a three-true-outcomes guy; his combined strikeout and walk tally in each went into double digits, the first times that’s happened this season, and something that only happened twice last season. Elder is no longer a groundball guy, not really, as his grounder rate has dipped below league average at this point. That’s not surprising given that his four-seamer has actually jumped ahead of his sinker in usage at this point. Meanwhile, his slider’s now-exaggerated downward break has made it a more effective swing-and-miss pitch while shaving off some of the “just rolled over it” contact he used to get.
All in all, Elder’s line on the season is 44/78/92, which is certainly better than his career 101/103/100 line, but you can see that HR/FB is having a much bigger impact on his season than his improvements in and of themselves. He leads the Braves’ staff in fWAR (1.3, to Chris Sale’s 1.2). Among the 147 starters with the most innings in MLB this season, his fWAR ranks 20th, his ERA- ranks eighth, his FIP- ranks 29th, and his xFIP- ranks 50th. Quite a turnaround from his past performance in many ways.
The Atlanta attack in the midst of a brief lull, having scored just seven runs in their last three games, and things won’t necessarily get easier for them as they’ll face Payton Tolle today. (The lull is largely just an artifact of Matt Olson having three hits, all singles, and no walks in his last four games, and Ozzie Albies reaching base just five times in his past nine games, with no extra-base hits, and two of those five instances coming in the same game.) The 50th overall pick in the 2024th MLB draft, Tolle had an okay debut season marred by some terribly poor fortune (142/150/92) across three starts and four relief appearances, and then started 2026 dominating Triple-A hitters before getting the call-up. Since then, he’s dominated major league hitters too, with a 65/67/77 line in four outings. He was dominant in his season debut (11/1 K/BB ratio) but the Red Sox somehow lost the game; he then had a not-so-good outing in Toronto, bushwhacked the Tigers in Detroit, and then had an okay start against the Rays. Basically, he’s got the potential to dominate, but it’s not a fait accompli or anything.
Tolle is an odd duck pitch-wise, as he’s broadly four-seamer, sinker, cutter, curve, in that order. He throws hard (96 mph), gets basically best-in-class extension, and has enough fastball command that he hasn’t needed to sweat much else. His three fastballs (including his cutter) all vary enough in shape and velocity that his hard curve is largely an afterthought… and really, his four-seamer is scary enough that he might do okay by just throwing it and not much else. Hope the Braves bring their hitting shoes and their fastball timing to the park tonight!
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Saturday, May 16, 7:15 p.m. EDT
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision, Gray TV
Streaming: MLB.tv — it’s a free weekend, even if you don’t subscribe (though of course you’ll need to be out-of-market to benefit)
Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan
