In this edition we usually take a look at the offense or defense as a whole. This time we will take a look at C.J. Stroud specifically. We are going to do this in three parts. The first way is to simply take the best per game statistics that we have (since he has had his bye week) and compare that to the other quarterbacks in the league. I should pause here for a moment to lay out some ground rules. The first ground rule is that they have to have qualified with minimal playing time so both Lamar
Jackson and Baker Mayfield didn’t make the cut. Secondly, any placeholder quarterback wasn’t considered with the exception of Kirk Cousins.
That left us with the 22 quarterbacks. We are looking at yards per game, net yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. We will take Stroud’s rankings in each of these categories and come up with a composite ranking. That will be the first part of the test.
Stroud’s Numbers
Yards per game: 266.7 (6th)
Net yards per attempt: 6.8 (10th)
Completion percentage: 64.8 (12th)
Touchdown %: 4.5 (15th)
Interception %: 0.4 (2nd)
QB Rating: 100.7 (8th)
Composite Ranking: 8.83
In other words, based on these rankings and these rankings alone, we could classify Stroud as a top ten quarterback. Naturally, there are all kinds of caveats we have to look at before making a declarative statement. First, none of these numbers include running numbers which obviously will tip the scales for the Josh Allens of the world. Secondly, there are those that would question the efficacy of such rankings because talent is not equally distributed and let’s just say that coaching know how is not equally distributed.
However, ESPN published their report on the negotiations in the offseason and they would seem damning now that Stroud is almost half way into the season. So, we are looking at similarity scores through two different means. The first round is to simply take the two quarterbacks closest to Stroud in the composite rankings. I think everyone will find this one fascinating.
Similarity Score One
The two quarterbacks most similar to Stroud in composite ranking are Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. As luck should have it, those are the two quarterbacks most likely to get extensions this next offseason. So, it will be a race to the bank so to speak as the first contract is likely to inform the other two. The third quarterback on the list was Josh Allen, but since these numbers didn’t include his rushing statistics, that comparison would be pretty moot if we really tried to make it stick.
Similarity Score Two
The second way to do similarity scores is to look category by category and identify the three quarterbacks in each category that come closest to his score. Obviously, if we see the same names multiple times then we could also surmise that they are similar to Stroud. If we see Williams or Maye on the list then it strengthens the notion that those three quarterbacks are similar.
Yards Per Game: Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Bryce Young
Net Yards per attempt: Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford
Completion percentage: Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Kirk Cousins
Touchdown percentage: Aaron Rodgers, Dak Prescott, Sam Darnold
Interception percentage: Jaden Daniels, Jared Goff, Caleb Williams
Quarterback rating: Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Drake Maye
I think the names are repeated enough to give us something to go on. Kirk Cousins appears three times, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, and Caleb Williams all appear twice. The rest only appear once. So, one could credibly claim that Stroud is most similar statistically to Kirk Cousins. Since Williams is a holdover from the other list then we can add his name as an obvious second choice.
Ramifications
This is where context comes into play. The Las Vegas Raiders and Chicago Bears are two of the best offensive teams in the NFL with two gifted offensive head coaches. The fact that Stroud is in the same conversation as them is a testament to him and not necessarily meant as a shot. Certainly if one looks at the pedigree of Williams and the accomplishments (regular season) of Cousins then it is easy to see what could be possibly if Stroud were given that mythical long term contract.
Of course, the other half of that is having an offensive line and coaching staff that can take full advantage of his talents. This is where quarterback ratings become part science and part art. Where would he rank if he were not addled with Nick Caley and this offensive line? Ninth seems low in that scenario. Maybe he brushes up against the top five. He probably settles in at somewhere around sixth or seventh if he had a Ben Johnson type at offensive coordinator.
Is that worth 60 or 65 million dollars? That is obviously the 65 million dollar question. Ironically, while much has changed through his play this season, this point really hasn’t. If you are going to continue to play ball control and put training wheels on Stroud then he probably isn’t worth that money. It has nothing to do with him per se. If you were to put the same shackles on Patrick Mahomes then you’d probably reach the same conclusion. If they install an offense that takes full advantage of his abilities then he definitely is worth the money. That all comes down to DeMeco Ryans and whether he can fully admit that you aren’t a smash mouth football team. Time will tell if that ever happens.
