The uncertainty factor is at an all-time high this season. With 62 new head coaches, a record number of players transferring, international players becoming a more significant factor, and there’s still
the incoming high school players – some of whom will make a difference, predicting the season ahead is impossible. But we do it anyway.
The Wolfpack is as tough to predict as anyone.
- New coach and staff
- 13 new players – 9 transfers, 2 international, 2 freshmen
- Only 1 player (Williams) started every game for his team last season
- Only 4 players (Williams, Copeland, Holloman, Lubin) started as much as 40% of their team’s games last season
ACC – A league in transition
Ranking: The media voted NC State 4th, behind Duke, Louisville, and UNC.
The ACC has lost some coaching giants in recent years. There are 11 programs with coaches starting their first, second, or third seasons in the ACC. This season there are four new coaches in historically key ACC programs. There are two proven college basketball coaches in the Wolfpack’s Wade and UVA’s Odom, FSU hired former Seminole player Luke Loucks from his role as an assistant with the NBA’s Kings, and Miami hired highly thought of college assistant Jai Lucas from Duke. But there are also three coaches (Kelsey – Lou, Enfield – SMU, Smith – Stan) in their second ACC season, and four more (Autrey – Syr, Shrewsberry – ND, Stoudamire – GT, Madsen – Cal) in their third. The ACC is in the process of reestablishing itself as a conference power in basketball.
National
Rankings: An #8 seed in Lunardi’s tournament bracket, AP #26 (highest number of votes received outside top 25), KenPom #38, Torvik #38
KenPom / Torvik Preseason Projections
School (top half ACC) – KenPom / Torvik
- Duke – 7 / 2
- Louisville – 14 / 11
- Clemson – 32 / 51
- UNC – 33/ 18
- NC State – 38 / 38
- SMU – 43 / 52
- WF – 49 / 67
- UVA – 59 / 33
- Both KenPom and Torvik project NC State winning against the bottom ‘half’ of the league. The difference is KP has us losing to Wake and losing only 1 game to UVA. BT has us losing 2 to UVA but beating Wake, plus losing to Kansas and UNC.
- Both are ignoring Maui games 2 & 3 since the opponents are TBD, so they are evaluating a 29-game season. Both project 19-10 regular seasons, KenPom projects an 11-7 ACC season, Torvik projects 10-8.
- KenPom, “Projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning
each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.” [KP projects 10 losses overall, but only lists 8 specific losses]
KenPom / Torvik Projected Losses
Projection (23-8 / 13-5)
After seeing the exhibition game, my optimism is high! The Wolfpack is talented at every position. The upper classmen (Williams, Lubin, Holloman, Copeland, Arceneaux) just need experience playing together in the new system, and the other four (McNeil, Able, Deng, Sagnia) just need experience. They’ll all be good.
Duke and Louisville will be excellent. I don’t think Wake and Clemson will be as good as KP predicts, but I think UVA and the Wolfpack will be better. I believe the Wolfpack will win the Maui tournament and end the regular season at 23-8, winning 10-13 in the OOC and 13-18 in the ACC.
The Wolfpack is 100% new this season and tough to predict. Much of my confidence is riding on the shoulders of Coach Wade’s ability to bring in the right players for his system and to maximize their potential.
The Red Reckoning is upon us. Let the games begin!
