Just two weeks ago, the Milwaukee Brewers were crowned World Series champions for the very first time, after a win in five games over the Tampa Bay Rays to cap off a dominant 2026. But now comes the hard part.
With another thrilling baseball season wrapped up, MLB and its team owners will shift their focus to turning fans against the players, as they push to institute a salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement. The current agreement is set to expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1.
Players
remain opposed to a cap, while owners cite “competitive balance” as its main purpose. I guess now would be a good time to mention that three of the final four teams in the 2026 playoffs ranked in the bottom half of the league in payroll and play in small markets: the Brewers (No. 19 TV market), Rays (No. 28) and Cleveland Guardians (No. 30). The fourth team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, had the second-highest payroll behind only the New York Mets.
These playoffs weren’t the best backdrop for the owners’ argument, because payroll hardly factored into the story of this season. The Mets, with their $346.7 million payroll, finished dead last in the NL East, with the third-worst record in the National League. The Toronto Blue Jays went from World Series runner-up to missing the playoffs despite having baseball’s fifth-highest payroll. Hell, even the White Sox, with their $103 million payroll (No. 24), were just a couple of runs away from the ALCS.
That’s not to say money doesn’t solve some (or many) problems. The Dodgers scooped up Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline and were chasing a three-peat before being swept by the eventual champion Brewers. And seven of the teams with the top 10 payrolls qualified for the playoffs.
So what does all of this mean for MLB and the 2027 season?
The short answer is: Who knows? If the sides don’t reach a new agreement before the current one expires, owners could lock out players as soon as December 2. During a lockout team employees, including executives and coaches, would generally be prohibited from communicating with players on 40-man rosters. If MLB follows its approach from the last lockout, player photos would also disappear from league and team websites.
In other words, be prepared for the return of our favorite blank player image:
With less than a month until a potential lockout, baseball’s general managers are meeting this week, from November 10-12. MLB owners will meet the following week, from November 17-19. Time is running short for the sides to reach an agreement before the current deal expires, but a lockout isn’t official until owners initiate one.
Where do both sides stand?
The centerpiece of MLB’s proposal is a salary floor and cap for all clubs, which owners argue would improve competitive balance across the league. The MLB Players Association strongly opposes a cap, and instead wants to overhaul the existing revenue-sharing system to address financial disparities between small- and large-market teams and encourage clubs to prioritize winning over profit.
MLB has made great strides in growing the game over the last few seasons, so fans are rightfully upset at the thought of a baseball season going down the drain. Many are sick of seeing big-market teams like the Dodgers, Mets and New York Yankees spend seemingly unlimited amounts of money to sign the league’s best players. Meanwhile, small-market teams keep playing Moneyball, and others seem stuck in a never-ending rebuild loop (cough, Colorado Rockies, cough). I get it: A salary cap seems like it would solve a lot of problems. And sure, it boils down to billionaires fighting millionaires. But let’s not forget what it takes for a player to actually make it to the majors, while owners seemingly print money without breaking a sweat.
Initial MLBPA proposal
Back in May, the MLBPA shared itsinitial proposal to begin CBA negotiations, which the owners ultimately rejected. In their proposal, the players focused on maintaining their rights as employees of the league to ensure fair treatment from MLB clubs, provide more opportunities for players to reach The Show, increase minimum salaries, and develop ways to penalize teams that aren’t trying to win.
Beyond those financial issues, MLB’s Mark Feinsand reported in mid-July that owners had presented an expanded proposal to overhaul the domestic draft and introduce an international draft. The Players Association blasted the framework, opposing cuts to the domestic draft and players’ signing bonuses and calling it “flat-out bad for baseball.”
As in its initial proposal on revenue sharing and competitive balance, the union continues to push measures to help lower-revenue clubs in smaller markets compete, including larger bonus pools for teams that qualify for the playoffs. Both sides appear to agree on the need to curb corruption in international scouting, often involving underage players. That said, MLB wants to slash eight rounds from the domestic draft while capping signing bonuses.
Initial proposal from MLB owners
MLB’s original CBA proposal in May also made competitive balance its central argument, with the owners proposing a salary floor and cap for team payrolls. Another thing that the owners love to cite is how much “fans overwhelmingly support” instituting a floor and a cap to MLB players’ salaries, to which I say, “Speak for yourself.” As Feinsand reported in his article about MLB’s proposal, the league itself admits that MLB revenue has increased by 247% since 2003. On the other hand, payroll has increased, but not nearly as much (149%).
MLB’s salary cap, floor and revenue sharing overview
- Salary cap ($245.3 million) and floor ($171.2 million)
- 12 clubs would be forced to increase their payroll, and eight would need to reduce it to comply in 2027.
- The existing Competitive Balance Tax would still apply to teams that don’t meet the necessary requirements, and the proposed cap is only $1.3 million more than the current $244 million tax threshold.
- 50-50 revenue split each year between clubs and players
- MLB suggests hiring an independent accountant to verify financials, using a similar system to the NBA, NFL and NHL.
- Sharing media revenue and addressing blackouts
- Revenue would be centralized from all local media and distributed equally among all 30 teams.
- Players would receive 50% of any increase in media revenue under this proposal.
One of the league’s main arguments is that MLB is the only one of the four major North American men’s professional sports leagues without a salary cap. I can agree that there should be a way to actually force teams to spend money on their players, rather than crying poor every year while raking in millions regardless of what the product on the field looks like. I also agree that revenue sharing needs to be improved regarding TV deals and the spending gap between wealthier teams and low-revenue teams.
What I don’t see the need for is a salary cap. As the league has noted, baseball has been growing over the last several years, so threatening to cancel an entire season to hoard a little more money feels unnecessary at best.
While the salary cap and floor are the headliners, the owners also proposed changes to the reserve system (free agency, minimum salaries and arbitration pools), international and domestic player drafts, international player development and the season structureand playoff format. There’s a lot to these proposals, so here’s a breakdown:
Reserve system
The reserve system generally gives teams control over players until they accumulate six years of MLB service time. Players can then become free agents unless they are already under contract.
- Earlier access to free agency — proposed by MLBPA, accepted by MLB.
- Reduce period of club control to five years from six for players 30 and older.
- Increase the league minimum salary from $780,000 to $1 million for players with two or more years of service time.
- Players with less than two years of service time will receive a $900,000 minimum salary, with a $100,000 bonus from the updated pre-arbitration bonus pool.
- 30% increase in pre-arbitration bonus pool, up to $65 million from $50 million.
- Provides a $100,000 automatic bonus for players who complete a full year of service in their first two years in the league.
- Elimination of the Qualifying Offers system — proposed by MLBPA, accepted by MLB.
- Deferred payments will not be permitted in any new contracts.
- Current contracts would be unaffected, so Bobby Bonilla Day is still safe for another nine years.
- Maintain the status quo of the salary arbitration system, but be open to creating a new framework if the MLBPA desires.
- New “Cornerstone Player” system applied to free-agent signings to help MLB teams retain their superstar players, including maximum contract lengths and salaries.
- Free agent contracts can cover a maximum of five seasons for MLB free agents, or six seasons if being re-signed by their existing team.
- The maximum free-agent salary if signed from another team is 15% of the salary cap, or 16% if re-signed by their existing team.
- Note: This rule does not include players who are still under reserve, meaning younger players can still sign long-term deals, though there are still maximums for salary guarantees based on years of service.
Domestic amateur draft
- Signing eligibility:
- Players must be 20 years old by September 1 of their draft year, and at least two years removed from high school.
- Players can be drafted without being an active collegiate player (i.e., Independent League players) and would be eligible to be drafted one year earlier than in the current system.
- Separate Domestic and International drafts:
- Equal signing-bonus pools for both drafts starting at $200 million.
- 12-round draft with unlimited signings of undrafted players.
- Limitations to trading draft picks include the inability for teams to:
- Trade future picks beyond the upcoming year (i.e., 2028 draft selections can’t be traded until the 2027 draft is completed).
- Trade away first-round picks in back-to-back drafts.
- Acquire more than three additional selections in the first three rounds of a draft outside of their originally assigned selections.
- Mandatory draft combine medical evaluations.
- Reduce draft lottery selections each year from six to four.
- No club would be able to receive a lottery pick in three straight years.
- Competitive Balance picks eliminated.
International player development
- Increase age of signing eligibility to at least 18 years old by September 1 of their draft year.
- Encourages students to stay in school while pursuing a baseball career, and decreases pressure on teenagers, which subsequently reduces the incentive of PED use in children.
- Expand the Amateur Scouting League to create more playing opportunities for players of all talent levels, including working with governments to implement programs in players’ hometowns, ultimately giving players more chances to continue developing if they are not signed in their first year of eligibility.
- Includes meals, housing, education, and a stipend for all players participating.
- Implementation of an International Draft to reduce competition among players in the current system.
- Same 12-round process and $200 million bonus pool as the proposed Domestic Draft above.
- Player protections and regulations to maintain fairness and safety for international players.
Season structure and playoff format
- 154-game regular season:
- Scheduled off day every week (usually Monday or Thursday), with a national game being aired on Mondays, beginning in 2029.
- Postseason changes:
- Higher-seeded Clubs in the Wild Card and Division Series select their opponents, beginning in 2027.
- 3-seed selects Wild Card opponent (5 or 6-seed).
- 1-seed would select which Wild Card winner to play in the Division Series.
- Expansion to best-of-seven Division Series (up from five), beginning in 2029.
- Off days to be added before non-guaranteed games (after game four).
- Fewer daytime game slots, with the season ending a week sooner.
- Higher-seeded Clubs in the Wild Card and Division Series select their opponents, beginning in 2027.
Where do the negotiations stand now?
With a salary cap still a nonstarter for the MLBPA, MLB proposed last week to punt its cap-and-floor system to 2028, as reported by CBS Sports. The league says the delay would ease the transition, but players have repeatedly made clear that they oppose a cap, regardless of when it takes effect.
The 1994 dispute over a salary cap helped trigger a strike that wiped out the rest of the regular season and the entire postseason. This time around, owners continue to insist on a cap.
Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Shaikin outlined what could happen if negotiations reach an impasse. If the sides reach a valid impasse after bargaining in good faith, owners could attempt to impose terms from their proposal without the union’s agreement. But the MLBPA’s opposition to a salary cap alone wouldn’t establish bad faith, and the union could challenge the owners’ actions or respond with a strike. There’s precedent for a legal fight: During the 1994-95 strike, owners unilaterally changed employment terms, prompting the National Labor Relations Board to seek an injunction. In 1995, a federal judge ordered owners to restore the previous terms, helping bring the strike to an end.
Negotiations haven’t reached an impasse, and there’s still time to reach a deal. The best outcome would be for both sides to keep bargaining and reach an agreement, but we know how much the owners like to line their pockets.
If you’ve made it this far, bless your soul. The CBA is a beast, and at some point, I understand the sentiment: “Just let me know when they reach a deal.” We’ll continue to provide updates as they come. For now, we can hope MLB comes to its senses — though I’m not holding my breath.
