The Thunder are one of the hardest teams in the league to bet on this year because both things can be true at once.
They are probably the best team in basketball.
They also got worse.
Oklahoma City went 64-18 last season after winning 68 games the year before, and they did it despite Jalen Williams playing only 33 games. Their defense was still elite, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won another MVP, Chet Holmgren remained one of the league’s best two-way bigs, and even with major injuries, they were still two wins
away from another Finals appearance.
Now the question is whether losing real depth finally brings them back in line with the rest of the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Over/Under 61.5 wins
Over: -125
Under: +100
To win NBA Championship: +250
To win Western Conference: +130
To win Northwest Division: -650
Last season: 64-18, first in the West, lost in the Western Conference Finals
Key additions: Aday Mara, Otega Oweh, Bennett Stirtz
Key losses: Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Branden Carlson
The case for the over
I think the first thing you have to remember with Oklahoma City is just how ridiculous they were last year.
They won 64 games with Jalen Williams essentially missing most of the season. That alone shows how high this team’s floor is.
If Williams gives them anything close to a healthy year, that could offset a lot of what they lost this offseason. Shai is still one of the best players in basketball. Chet is still one of the league’s best defensive bigs. Isaiah Hartenstein is back. Ajay Mitchell took a real step. The core that made this team elite is still here.
That is why I cannot look at 61.5 and immediately call it too high.
Yes, losing Lu Dort hurts a lot. I think people are underselling that. He was by far their best perimeter defender and one of the most important tone-setters on the roster. He also shot around 35 percent from three last season, so Oklahoma City isn’t only losing defense. They are losing someone who could stay on the floor offensively too. Joe and Wiggins were also real rotation players who provided shooting, defense, and depth.
But this team has been so deep and so well-built that losing role players may not be enough to knock them down that far.
Mara is also an interesting addition. At 7-foot-3, he gives them another massive frontcourt body behind Chet and Hartenstein, and Oklahoma City does not need him to be anything close to great right away. Oweh and Stirtz need to give them playable regular-season minutes and keep the rotation afloat.
The injury part is real, especially with Chet. He’s already missed significant time in his career, and Williams played just 33 games last year. But if Oklahoma City gets even average health, this is still the kind of team that can win 62 games without it feeling wild.
They already proved that last year.
