The Pirates are having a pretty good year. They sit on the fringes of the wild card race, and are second in MLB in runs scored. That’s good! They have also allowed the eighth-most runs in MLB… despite having one of the best pitchers on the planet, Paul Skenes, who is having what, for him, is a mediocre year.
For more on the Pirates, here’s Austin Bechtold, a writer for our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout
.Following a disappointing series loss to the New York Yankees that concluded with another
bullpen meltdown, the Pittsburgh Pirates return home to begin a stretch of games that could define their aggressiveness at the trade deadline.
The Pirates are 53-50 and entered Thursday just a half-game back of the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final wild card in the National League.
Arizona comes to PNC Park on Monday, but first a three-game weekend series against the Cubs sets the table for Yinzerpalooza Weekend.
Pittsburgh is 4.5 games back of Chicago, which holds the top wild card in the NL, but the Bucs took two of three from the Cubs at Wrigley Field in mid-April, nearly sweeping the series before the bullpen gave the lead up (a sign of what was to come), and split a four-game set in mid-May.
The teams haven’t played each other in two months and have both been defined by their offense during that stretch.
A year after finishing bottom five in nearly every offensive category, the Pirates are first in hits per game (9.1), tied for first in batting average (.261), second in on-base percentage (.339), second in runs scored (5.3), third in slugging (.424), and third in OPS (.763).
Shockingly, the Pirates have hit more home runs (132) than the Cubs (128) after totaling only 117 last season, dead last in baseball.
The Pirates have won 27 games at PNC Park in 2026 (27-24), while the Cubs have the same win total away from Wrigley Field (27-23).
The Bucs are 17-12 against the NL Central in 2026 after only winning 19 games against the four teams last season (19-33).
On paper, the Pirates have the upper hand with the starting pitching matchups, including two All-Stars.
Jared Jones will oppose Matthew Boyd on Friday night. Paul Skenes takes the hill on Saturday against Shōta Imanaga, a lefty who has notoriously dominated the Pirates. Braxton Ashcraft will go to the mound in the finale against former Pirate Jameson Taillon.
The Pirates have been bad against left-handed starting pitchers and are tied for the third-fewest wins against southpaws.
Don Kelly’s lefty-heavy lineup is 9-20 against left-handed starters, tied with the Marlins (9-16) and just better than the Royals (8-21) and Mets (7-20) for the poorest performances in all of baseball.
It’s something the Pirates must improve upon moving forward if they’re going to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
The bullpen remains a mess and hasn’t been positively addressed all year, longing for the trading deadline on August 3 to fix all the problems.
A losing streak could change the Pirates’ level of aggressiveness a week and a half from now, benefiting the rest of the division.
Pittsburgh is battling Arizona, Miami, Washington, and St. Louis for the final wild card, but does have a chance to chase down Chicago for a bigger prize.
The Pirates’ top three starters are pitching, and it’s pivotal that the Bucs win the series to gain ground on the Cubs and continue their success in the NL Central.
Fun facts
The Cubs split four games at Pittsburgh on May 25-28, losing twice before ending a 10-game tailspin, then beating Paul Skenes to earn a split.
Since 2021, the Cubs are 29-13 at PNC Park, for a winning percentage of .690. That is 95 points higher than their .595 (25-17) at Wrigley Field vs. the Pirates during the same span.
The Cubs are .597 (58-39-1) at Pittsburgh since 2015 and .561 (119-93-1) at PNC since it opened in 2001, their second-best at any current NL park behind .569 (33-25) at Citi Field in New York vs. the Mets.
Since the rivalry began in 1887, the Cubs have lost more games at Pittsburgh, 714, than anywhere else. St. Louis is second, with 677.
They also have won more games on the road vs. the Pirates than against any other team. Two wins in the next three days will make Pittsburgh the first city where the Cubs have won 600 times. Philadelphia is second, with 579.
(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
Probable pitching matchups
Friday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (6-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 3.68 FIP) vs. Jared Jones, RHP (2-1, 4.05 ERA, 1.100 WHIP, 3.23 FIP)
Saturday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (6-8, 3.91 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 4.50 FIP) vs. Paul Skenes, RHP (9-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 2.81 FIP)
Sunday: Jameson Taillon, RHP (2-5, 5.38 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 6.39 FIP) vs. Braxton Ashcraft, RHP (9-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 3.53 FIP)
Times & TV channels
Friday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Saturday: 5:40 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Sunday: 12:35 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network
Prediction
The Cubs, as noted, have not done all that well against the Pirates so far this year, winning just three of the seven games. And the Bucs swept the Brewers at PNC Park just before the All-Star break.
The Cubs really do need to set the tone by winning two of three. And so that is what I’m going to say they will do.
Up next
The Cubs head to St. Louis for a four-game series against the Cardinals that begins Monday evening.
