One of the more interesting things around baseball in 2025 is the disconnect between how the Yankees are viewed by the professional analyst class and the more general population. The former sees them as more or less
a perpetual motion machine, churning out quality teams year after year even as they don’t spend what they did 20 years ago. Gen pop is much more fixated on the 16 years without a World Series win, from the organization that ran an ad ahead of Y2K promising to do better than a quarter of the century’s rings.
To wit, the 2026 ZiPS projections peg the Yankees to be pretty darn good, with a median outcome coming somewhere between 85-90 wins. Any added upside, maybe a full season of someone like Cam Schlittler or another ten-win Aaron Judge season, pushes them over that top number, while the very real downside of injury and a lack of relative depth presents a threat of a .500-ish team.
The offense of course will go as far as Aaron Judge will carry them, and indeed the fact the two-time reigning MVP is tabbed for a 50th percentile outcome 7.6 fWAR season, which would make him the fourth-best player in baseball in 2025, is a modern baseball miracle in itself. The flaw that ZiPS sees is in the lack of production from the former top prospects — Anthony Volpe and Jasson Domínguez were supposed to be reliable members of the lineup, maybe not hitting 3-4 but everyday, representative hitters and neither inspire much confidence at the plate. It was the right idea to keep the former Martian on the bench during that stretch run in September, as Trent Grisham and Cody Bellinger really were the best pieces to help the team win.
The big need the Yankees have, at least based on one projection system, is a lack of three-to-four win players. That’s the level where you’re a little better than average, and while you’re not a superstar you add those upside wins that push a team above 90. Cody Bellinger is on the market, and Carlos Rodón will miss the start of the year. As a whole, the team boasted eight such players in 2025, and are pegged for just four in 2026. The good news is this means that while I’d like Kyle Tucker, the Yankees can actually focus more on shoring up the floor than the ceiling, since the raw talent of Judge and Cole alongside the potential of Ben Rice and Cam Schlittler help with that side of the equation.
To wit, this is kind of in line with the reporting that Bellinger is the Yankees’ top target on the free agent market. Maybe he busts out another five-win season, but based on all the data we have from 2025 we should be confident in a few more seasons at that three-to-four level, shoring up the lineup behind Aaron Judge and adding positional versatility at a cost that won’t be the $400-odd million Tucker is looking for.
The catastrophic downside risk is an i***** to ***** ***** of course, but setbacks in rehab among 3/5ths of what we’d hope the starting rotation would be present the second-largest. The free agent pitching market is a little thin, and frankly the example Szymborski gives in Zac Gallen makes me quite terrified indeed. Therefore, it’s probably best to look to the trade world, where MacKenzie Gore or the Marlins’ top two arms could help offset some of that downside risk.
