The Guardians find themselves in a virtual tie for the American League Central lead. What has to happen from this point on for 2026 to be a successful season for Cleveland?
As has been widely noted, the Guardians have the easiest schedule remaining in MLB. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .467. In comparison, the Tigers’ remaining opponents have a .489 winning percentage, the Twins .491 and the White Sox .493. So, while this should give the Guardians an advantage, it IS
important to note that the rest of their Central foes don’t exactly have a schedule full of juggernauts, either. The White Sox do have to play an additional two games that the Guardians have already played, which should help some with maintaining player freshness. And, of course, Cleveland should get Jose Ramirez and Angel Martinez back sometime in early August.
You can call me spoiled if you like, but simply winning an AL Central title would only give the Guardians a passing grade on the season, a D-means-degree kind of situation (it would actually be a D+ to C+ grade kind of season). However, an AL Central title and a playoff series win would make it a success (B- to B grade); two playoff series wins a wild success, and a pennant or World Series title a joy beyond all measure, of course. What will the Guardians need in order to achieve some kind of grade in this B+ to A+ territory? Let’s talk about that below:
Young Hitters Show Significant Growth from Adjustments:
The Guardians have the 2nd lowest payroll in MLB. It is clear that Paul Dolan and David Blitzer did not decide to open the “Pete Alonzo Door” to fixing the 28th ranked offense from 2025. No, they have decided to bet ona group of young and developing hitters. So far, there have been two rousing successes in that bunch – Brayan Rocchio and Chase DeLauter. Both Rocchio and DeLauter need to continue their strong performances, of course, but in order for this offense to become a legitimate playoff threat, the Guardians will need significant contributions from Kyle Manzardo, Travis Bazzana, and Angel Martinez, and/or an unexpected breakout from Kahlil Watson, Petey Halpin, Cooper Ingle or Juan Brito.
Bazzana is going through rookie adjustments and I expect him to figure things out soon as he has done at every level of his career so far. Martinez has a 103 wRC+ against RHP this year which is very exciting because he has yet to hit LHP this season, despite being a 120 wRC+ against lefties in his career. If Angel can just take a FEW more walks, as he did in the minors, his insane contact and pulled-fly ball abilities should enable him to be a decent corner outfielder. I am rooting for him. Manzardo is the most difficult of the bunch; he must force pitchers to come inside on him by driving some opposite field and center line drives and taking some more walks. He is only 25. He CAN still live into the promise he flashed last season. But it needs to start happening shortly after the break.
Watson is also going through it right now, but I like his confidence and demeanor. I wouldn’t bet against him figuring out how to get back to that strong week of performances he put up in June. Brito and Ingle both have to fix their skillet gloves, but I do think both will eventually hit in the majors. May they both play a lot of outfield in Columbus; Brito as a potential Fry replacement and Ingle as an Angel backup, if neither are trades. Every now and then, Halpin makes me dream about him being a league average hitter and thus a 5-win centerfielder because the glove is that good. But, it is not meant to be, I fear. His calling card, thus, will remain pinch-running and defensive replacement.
Starting Pitchers Stay Healthy:
The Guardians starting rotation has been a steady force of reliable production in 2026, and the most valuable unit this season so far. This is especially good news as the depth behind the five top starters is shaky at best. Cleveland will need their rotation to stay healthy for the second half. One injury would probably be sustainable with 5th starter-like performances from either Logan Allen or Austin Peterson. Two… and you’d better hope Ben Lively comes back to life or the Guardians acquire a heck of a backup plan at the upcoming trade deadline.
The Team Adds at Least One Significant Bullpen Arm and the Current Arms Stay Reasonably Healthy:
The Guardians bullpen has three arms in the inner circle of trust: Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Colin Holderman.
It has three arms attempting to enter or re-enter the circle of trust: Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Franco Aleman.
It has a couple arms who have been sketchy but whose track record and metrics indicate they are probably ok: Sean Armstrong and Matt Festa
It has one arms who has 6th inning value and shoild not be entrusted with season-altering moments: Codi Heuer.
One would assume that when Herrin is back from his elbow bruise he will replace Heuer and when the time is right Daniel Espino will return to replace Matt Festa or Sean Armstrong if either falter further. So, the question is whether or not the team can make one upgrade to take the bullpen to the next level AND insure against the possibility that Sabrowski does not find his old groove and/or Tim Herrin continues to walk 9 batters per 9 innings. I would love a Brooks Raley-type addition as discussed here, but I know that every team in MLB will want to add a reliever, preferably a lefty, by August 3rd. Just know I support expending some real prospect capital in helping this bullpen become even more lockdown than it has been and I think it will be needed.
Jose Ramirez Returns at At Least 75% of His Old Self:
Man, do I miss watching Jose Ramirez play baseball. He should be back somewhere near MLB’s trade deadline, but, it’s important to note that it generally takes hitters a little time to regain their power after hamate surgery. I never count Jose’s recovery abilities out, but I think we should prepare for a bit more of a high-contact/on-base version of Jose. It will be important for him to not chase pitches and make sure he takes his walks, a need which may be helped by having DeLauter moved behind him in the order. But, the team is gonna need Jose to be close to 120 wRC+ bat to make a playoff run. Perhaps he can work his way back to a close fascimile of his usual production by the time the playoffs come through the reps he gets during the season.
The Team Gets One Legitimate Breakout from Either Angel Genao or Ralphy Velazquez OR Makes a Splashy Trade for a Middle-of-the-Order Hitter:
I realize that everyone would like the Guardians to trade their prospects for a legitimate lineup threat, but I don’t really see that kind of player available this year. Heliot Ramos, outfielder for the San Francisco Giants, is about as close as you can get, and that production is about his career 135 wRC+ against LHP more than his overall bat. I’m also not at all sure he will be made available and positive that, if he is, he will require an overpay from any acquiring team given the dearth of right-handed hitters in the offing. Spencer Steer of the Reds is another interesting option, and it is important to note that the Guardians do have some recent chemistry with both the Reds’ and the Giants’ respective front offices. However, I do not expect the Guardians to make a move for a big-time hitter. A move for an improvement over David Fry is about as far as I can see them going, and I think that is still very unlikely.
I do think there is outside potential for the Guardians to receive a real boost from one or two of their best hitting prospects remaining in Columbus in either Angel Genao or Ralphy Velazquez, but that should be viewed as more of a “lightning strike” situation. If one of them goes on an absolute tear and proves ready to bring their skillset to bear on major league pitching, hallelujah. But, for now, I’d look for both to get their first real shots either in September or in spring Training (lockout permitting). Remember that Ralphy does not yet have to be added to the 40-man so if the Guardians do not add him, he can continue to do things like minor-league spring Training and even Clippers games next year should major league games be missed.
David Fry and or Rhys Hoskins are a 120 wRC+ Hitter Again Against Lefties:
Do not look at Fry’s xwOBA but he has put up a 117 wRC+ against LHP and I suspect he is better than the 86 wRC+ he has managed vs LHP. As a player who can fill in for right or left fielders, he still has value… for now. Until he falls apart or until a better option is acquired.
Hoskins is quite frustrating to watch, but I am not sure the Guardians will find a better RH slugging option given how scarce those are. He has spent almost a year forgetting that he can hit LHP now, but I suspect that is small sample size and he will figure out how to get back to more like a 120 wRC+ against them at some point. If it’s this year, that would be great because he has a 110 wRC+ vs RHP. I would start Rhys everyday leading up to the deadline to see if he can figure this out (and because his career numbers as a pinch-hitter are awful).
The Kwan Resurgence Stays Real
Kwan has a 92 wRC+ since June 1st. If he can be a league average hitter, his excellent defense in left or center makes him a 3-4 win type of player. He has looked so much more like his normal self lately that it’s impossible not to hope.
Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey Continue To Be Not Hopeless at the Plate
Hedges has a 116 wRC+! 116! And Bailey has been solidly in the 80’s wRC+ since his first couple weeks with the team. If they can both be somewhere in that 80 range for the second half and keep the pitching staff on track, that would be huge for this team’s chances. Who knows if Bo Naylor will be dealt but he is, for now, great depth to have in Columbus.
As soon as Jose and Angel are back, I would like to see a lineup something like this:
- Bazzana 2B
- Rocchio SS
- Jose 3B
- DeLauter LF
- Hoskins DH
- Manzardo 1B
- Martinez RF
- Bailey/Hedges C
- Kwan CF
Bench: Arias, Schneemann, and Fry. I would keep Halpin over Arias or Schneemann, myself, but I doubt the team will agree. I suspect Watson goes back down to process what he has learned when Martinez is healthy.
I think this team is well-positioned to be… in position for great things if some good things continue to be good and some bad things that have been better get back to being better. Would I prefer to know that the Orioles just gave us Pete Alonso for no good reason? Why, yes. Yes, I would. However, we know how this team is run and we know what we need to hope for in order for an October to remember to dawn on the shores of Lake Erie this season.
