The Toronto Raptors and the Miami Heat are separated by differences in culture, philosophy, and to the chagrin of Canadian basketball enthusiasts, the temperature in December.
However, even with the disparity, there are clear plot points indicating that both teams have charted similar courses ahead of their matchup on Tuesday.
After a mixed bag of results out of the gate, the Raptors and Heat discovered their rhythm around the back-end of the first leg of the season-long NBA race. Toronto surged to 14-5
on the heels of a nine-game winning streak, while Miami won six consecutive games to catapult to 13-6.
One month later and both organizations are in the midst of a downward spiral. In their last ten contests, the Raptors (3-7) and Heat (2-8) have played uninspiring basketball and continue to gravitate back towards .500.
Ahead of tip-off – which is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. EST on Sportsnet – both teams need a win to initiate a reset inside the locker room before the holidays.
Along the thread that links both teams’ respective journeys is a collection of injuries to key rotational players.
After undergoing surgery for his left ankle and foot in September, Tyler Herro returned to the Heat on Nov. 24. But an unrelated toe injury placed the scorer back on the bench. With Herro only appearing in six games this season, the Heat are leaning on math to hide their deficiencies. Miami leads the league in pace (number of possessions per 48 minutes) and is second in shot attempts.
The Heat run into trouble when opposing defences limit their fast break opportunities or take away early offensive progressions.
For the Raptors, it begins and ends with wing RJ Barrett and centre Jakob Poeltl.
Since Barrett went down with a knee injury on Nov. 23, the Raptors are 5-7. While Barrett doesn’t grade as the strongest defender or three-point shooter, his presence is sorely missed, particularly on the offensive end. The Raptors failed to score at least 100 points in five of their 12 games without Barrett. They crossed the century mark in each of the 17 contests Barrett suited up for.
The Raptors have seen an increase in zone usage from their opponents in the last few weeks. And it’s almost a certainty that Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra, who never needs a push to go into zone, will deploy a coverage daring the Raptors to shoot.
With the spinning carousel of Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, and Ja’Kobe Walter showing no signs of stopping, Raptors head coach Darko Rajakovic has often turned to Jamal Shead. But despite Shead’s defensive grit and evolving playmaking skillset, the sophomore point guard doesn’t provide enough at this point in his career to offset the overall defensive mismatch that comes with playing alongside Immanuel Quickley.
Though Barrett may be close to returning, the outlook for Poeltl remains murky.
The two likeliest scenarios are that Poeltl continues to be an unreliable resource for the rest of the season or that the big man finally gets completely shut down. Both are grim results with season-sabotaging potential.
Regardless of what ultimately transpires, the Raptors cannot survive in this environment. The last time Toronto grappled with what it means to play without a true centre, the front office traded a first-round pick for Poeltl. Until another acquisition occurs, the Raptors must lean on what they have in-house to stay afloat.
Unfortunately for the Raptors, the Heat thrive on the glass. Miami is the seventh-best rebounding team in the NBA, particularly due to Bam Adebayo’s consistency and the emergence of Kel’el Ware. The second-year big man finished with 28 points and 19 rebounds against the New York Knicks on Dec. 21. In his last three games, Ware is averaging 24.6 points and 15 rebounds.
Sandro Mamukelashvili quickly etched his name in Raptors’ lore as one of the greatest free agent signings in franchise history, but the dynamic stretch four can only do so much to make up for the interior presence Poeltl provides.
At some point, the coaching staff could consider utilizing rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, particularly as the centre on the court and flanked by as many defenders as possible. For example, the Raptors have played a lineup featuring Murray-Boyles, Agbaji, Barnes, Shead and Brandon Ingram a total of only eight minutes this year. Despite the small sample size, the data points to a hidden gear the Raptors might have due to the favourable offensive and defensive ratings, which could be something that keeps the Raptors in the race until they sort out their big man issues.
