Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Network: TNT
- Location: McLane Stadium — Waco, TX
- Spread: Baylor (-2.5)
- Over/under: 59.5
- All-time series: Baylor leads, 15-14-1
- Last meeting: Baylor 20, Houston 10 — November 23, 2024
- Current streak: Baylor, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
After a long hiatus following the dissolve of the Southwest Conference, the Houston Cougars and Baylor Bears are regularly squaring off again. They meet for the third-straight year as Big 12 opponents,
with the road team winning each of the two prior matchups in low-scoring fashion.
Houston (8-3, 5-3 Big 12) needs to secure its sixth-straight road victory for a chance to appear back in the rankings. Baylor (5-6, 3-5 Big 12) must defend its home turf in order to lock up a fourth bowl bid in the last five years under Dave Aranda.
Houston Cougars outlook
Houston made two appearances in the rankings this year, and each one was short-lived. The Cougars climbed into the 20s of the AP Poll in late October but dropped turnover-riddled home game to West Virginia the following week. After working their way back in the poll a week ago, they lost a heartbreaker to TCU on a missed last-minute field goal.
The Cougars have bounced back well this year, faring 2-0 after defeats. They’ve also played exceptionally well on the road, winning all five contests away from TDECU Stadium on the year. In order to sustain that road success, Houston needs to start faster offensively. The Cougars haven’t scored a point in the first 14 minutes of action since Oct. 25, and they trailed 14-0, 10-0, and 14-0 to start their last three contests. Strong offensive starts were an identity of the team during its first five Big 12 games.
To achieve that, Houston requires more immediate production from the passing game and fewer turnovers. Houston only committed four turnovers in its first seven games but coughed up the ball nine times in its last three. They’ll rely on quarterback Conner Weigman to take care of the ball, which he did an exceptional job of through the first two-thirds of the season. Weigman varies from week to week in the passing game, peaking with two 300-yard showings on the year. But the most consistent element of his game is his mobility, rushing for 80+ yards in four his last five starts, including a career-high 114 against TCU.
Also leading the run game is senior tailback Dean Connors who just set a new personal-best with 800 yards on the season. In the month of November, Connors is only taking 10-13 carries per game as the lead back, but he’s made the most of them with 6.1 yards per carry over that stretch. He also plays an integral role in the receiving game, notching touchdowns as a pass-catcher in consecutive weeks.
The other pass catchers to take note of on this roster are wide receiver Amare Thomas and tight end Tanner Koziol. Thomas is one of three Big 12 wide receivers with at least 800 yards, and he is tied for second in the conference with nine touchdowns, as Houston’s preferred target on intermediate throws. Koziol stars as a short-yardage and goal line option, and his 58 receptions lead all FBS tight ends on the season. The passing game works best with heavy Koziol involvement, and Houston aims to increase that after he only logged two receptions in Week 13 vs. TCU.
Defensively, Houston played a remarkable game against the Horned Frogs. They let up two touchdowns on the first two possessions and then limited TCU to a lone fourth quarter field goal in the final three stanzas of action. Houston thrived on havoc plays against the Horned Frogs, decisively winning the turnover battle 4-1 thanks to a career day from cornerback Will James. James picked off two passes and jarred a ball loose on a Peanut Punch to win Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week honors.
Despite early struggles vs. TCU, the Cougars are still a potent aerial defense, ranking 48th in the FBS in passing yards per game. James, as well as defensive backs Latrell McCutchin, Wrook Brown, and Kentrell Webb lead the charge, looking to limit Sawyer Robertson and a Baylor offense capable of inflicting plenty of damage through pitch-and-catch. Houston almost fields an equivalent ranking as the 47th best run defense in the FBS, receiving boosts from defensive tackle Carlos Allen — tied for the team lead in tackles at 72 — as well as JACK outside linebacker Latreveon McCutchin — a havoc player who produced a critical 4th and 1 stop last Saturday to give Houston a shot at the end.
Houston missed that shot by shanking a 38-yard field goal, but Ethan Sanchez has otherwise excelled as the Cougars’ kicker, faring 19-of-22 before an 0-of-2 showing last week, sinking 10 kicks of 40 yards or greater.
Baylor Bears outlook
Baylor entered the season with high expectations and initially showed promise, upending SMU 48-45 on the road in Week 2. The Bears started 4-2, but everything collapsed in mid-October. After winning just one of their last five, they now face a do-or-die situation Saturday, requiring a senior day victory to clinch bowl eligibility.
The last two games took on similar form, as Baylor competed well against Utah and Arizona in the first halves, before losing the second halves by a combined score of 54-11. With poor second halves serving a significant factor, each of Baylor’s last three defeats were by greater than 20 points.
Baylor performs best when Sawyer Robertson is at his best. The quarterback hopes to extend his college career beyond senior day, and he enters ranked fourth in the FBS in passing yards at 3,372 — 129 yards away from a top-5 season in program history. Robertson has delivered three 400-yard games on the year, and nobody in the FBS is responsible for more passing touchdowns than his 30. With a bulk of reps (41.5 per game), there is greater exposure to interceptions. Limiting these miscues will be key, as Robertson tossed two picks in each of the Bears’ last two losses, totaling 11 on the year.
Robertson is equipped with a capable army of receivers, headlined by Josh Cameron. Cameron’s 66 receptions reign supreme in the Big 12, and his 817 yards rank second in the conference. Ashtyn Hawkins and Kole Wilson are among the other frequent targets in this pass-happy offense, as his tight end Michael Trigg. Trigg, one of three finalists for the John Mackey Award, starred vs. the Cougars last November with 96 yards and a touchdown. This season, he is second in the FBS in tight end receiving yards, only sitting 11 yards behind Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers.
Baylor’s rushing offense isn’t as lethal as the passing attack, but the Bears can still move the ball through Caden Knighten, Bryson Washington, and Michael Turner. The freshman Knighten is on a tear this November, generating his first two 100-yard performances of his career in his last three games, as he moves into the lead role.
Given the Bears’ ability to move the ball in a multitude of ways, why haven’t they eclipsed 30 points in their last four contests? Putting it bluntly, it’s turnovers. Baylor has 12 turnovers across its last five games, including 11 in its last four losses. The Bears have the third-most fumbles lost in the FBS on the season, and protecting the ball against a feisty Houston defense is of utmost importance to secure bowl eligibility.
Defense has been a year-long struggle for Baylor, which ranks 125th in defending the run and is averaging under a takeaway per game. The Bears surrendered over 40 points in four of their last five games, but there was a near-perfect performance sandwiched in the middle — a 30-3 stifling of UCF, where the Knights attained 225 yards and finished a combined 1-of-14 on third and fourth downs.
Key names to watch in this 3-4 Baylor defense include inside linebacker Keaton Thomas and strong safety Devyn Bobby. Thomas and Bobby are the leading tacklers on the unit with 92 and 76, respectively. Backfield pressure is what the defense desires most, currently checking in the FBS bottom 10 in both sacks and tackles for loss per game. They’ll look to defensive end Jackie Marshall to spearhead the pass rush and produce first-level stops on the ground, as Baylor looks to become the second-straight team to hold Houston under 20 points.
Prediction
The last two Houston and Baylor games were quite low-scoring, with Baylor emerging in 20-10 fashion last season and Houston walking off a 25-24 overtime victory in 2023 (was 17-17 heading into OT). Expect the Cougars’ defense to control the tone of this one, just like they did against TCU.
Turnovers should be a frequent occurrence in this game, so crisp red zone execution without miscues will be essential Saturday in Waco. Houston and Baylor offer some of the best tight end talent in the nation, so expect plenty of Tanner Koziol and Michael Trigg utilization to propel the offenses. Baylor has demonstarted more explosiveness and versatility offensively, but Houston is much more refined defensively. When the chips are on the table, the stronger defense emerges in a close one Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: Houston 24, Baylor 20
