Now that the Super Bowl has come and gone, the league will quickly shift its focus from the season that was to the offseason ahead. For many teams, this is an opportunity to get better. From free agency in March to the draft in late April, all 32 teams will undergo their biggest changes in a short period.
Over the last three offseasons, the Chicago Bears have been one of the busiest teams. Between having four top-10 draft picks during that time and holding some of the league’s highest cap space totals,
the organization and its fans are no strangers to the drama of the NFL offseason. For the first time in what feels like forever, Chicago will be heading into the offseason not needing to be one of the league’s headliners. Instead of focusing on building a roster from scratch, they get to build on an 11-win season in which they won their first playoff game in 15 seasons.
This might be unfamiliar territory for the Bears and their fans, but there’s still plenty of the offseason chaos for each to embrace. Before the bullets start flying and the premature confetti floats from the sky, we need to take a deeper dive into the team’s current cap situation. Unlike in previous offseasons, the team’s cap space, at least on the surface, is tight. Don’t fret, though. This is the life of a perennial contender, and for a team like the Bears, the extent of their cap manipulation has only just begun.
On The Surface
As of writing this, the NFL has not set the official cap number for 2026, but it has given NFL teams a small range in which the final number is expected to fall. The NFL’s range of $301.2 million to $305.7 million represents a jump of $22 million to $26.5 million. Unlike past offseasons, the Bears will take any additional bump they can get while they set their offseason plans.
For this exercise, we’ll use Over The Cap for all things salary cap-related. They’re good about taking the middle part of each range, which they’ve set at $303.5 million. As of now, the Bears would be $5.3 million over the cap, which doesn’t include their draft class (projected at $4.193 million against the cap), practice squad ($3.5 million), getting to 53 players (usually an extra $1-1.5 million), and in-season costs ($4-4.5 million).
For the sake of using some “conservative” numbers, we’ll estimate that between their draft class and all in-season costs entailed above, they’ll need an additional $13.693 million, which would bring them to $18.993 million over the cap before any moves are made. Now, before anyone freaks out and wants the franchise folded, it’s worth mentioning that there are currently 11 teams projected to be over the cap, including all four teams in the NFC North. Assuming a similar cost to the Bears’ draft class and in-season expenditures, close to half the league would eventually project to be over the cap when all is said and done. That’s a long way of saying that the Bears are in a normal spot, especially for a playoff contender.
It’s worth noting that the roster is currently at 55 players, meaning any additional player signed will account for only a portion of their cap hit in 2026. For example, if the Bears re-signed Kevin Byard and his cap hit for 2026 was set to be $6 million, he would take the spot of Luke Elkin (or anyone else making $885,000), meaning Byard’s true cost to their cap space would be $5.15 million and not the entire $6 million. The same concept applies to the draft class, which is why their projected seven-player class would show up as $10.387 million, when in reality those seven players would only account for the $4.193 million figure shown above. That, of course, is assuming that all seven players made the final roster.
In short, because of the Rule of 51, the Bears are currently four players over the minimum, meaning any player signed (or re-signed) will count only toward the minimum for the player they are replacing. With cuts or trades, the outgoing player’s spot would be taken by the next player closest to the Top 51 of salaries.
Methods To Clear Additional Space
General manager Ryan Poles and his front office are heading into offseason number five together, which almost feels impossible to believe. Yet, here we are.
In Poles’ five offseasons (so far), we’ve seen plenty of cuts and trades, but only one restructure. By the numbers and their expected needs, his philosophy must shift heading into March and beyond. The good news is that this is a normal operation for most teams. Some Bears fans might have PTSD when it comes to Ryan Pace’s poor cap management, which is completely understandable. On top of swinging big on a trade for Khalil Mack, Pace’s insistence on continually kicking the can down the road on veteran players wasn’t smart business. With that being said, those decisions are always going to look worse when you miss on the quarterback position.
Assuming that Caleb Williams’ development continues and he lives up to his draft status, the focus should be less on kicking the can down the road to fully take advantage of using additional cap resources, and more on what (or who) they are spending it on. Before we dive into the restructure aspect of this approach, let’s take a look at some cut (and trade) candidates.
WR DJ Moore $16.5 million savings (Pre-June 1st trade)
LB Tremaine Edmunds $15 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
TE Cole Kmet $8.4 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
RB D’Andre Swift $7.47 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
DE Montez Sweat $6.915 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)/ $11 million savings (Post-June 1st release)
CB Jaylon Johnson $6.5 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)/ $15.5 million savings (Post-June 1st release)
QB Tyson Bagent $3.75 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
CB Tyrique Stevenson $3.65 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
K Cairo Santos $2.64 million savings (Pre-June 1st release)
Please be aware that not all of these players are true candidates for release or trade. This list is simply to give everyone a better idea of what they are working with for traditional releases and/or trades. Most importantly, there’s not a ton of flexibility that can come from big-money cuts, and that’s the most important aspect to take from this.
Players like Grady Jarrett, Dayo Odeyingbo, and T.J. Edwards would all save a combined $5.175 million if released with a Post-June 1st designation. Which means that unless they really want to move on from one or more of them, they are locked into a roster spot for 2026, no matter how much (or how little) they produce.
In theory, the Bears could release Edmunds ($15 million) and trade Moore ($31 million) and have enough money to play with to make a few smaller moves in free agency, plus pay for all the unseen expenses that come with managing cap space for an entire season. Even for as possible as both of those moves are, they won’t be enough on their own to fund the offseason they’ll need. Which brings us to the next step in cap savings: restructures.
When looking at restructures, there are two distinct approaches.
The first of which is a “simple” restructure, which takes a player’s base salary for the year and converts all but the veteran minimum (based on service time) into a signing bonus. That signing bonus is then prorated as a dead cap charge over a three- or four-year period (depending on the contract). This function lowers the cap hit in the current year while raising it in the remaining years, due to the dead money from prorated bonuses being factored in. For those looking for specific examples, take a look at Jaylon Johnson’s restructure just before the start of last season. These do not require the players’ consent and are far more common, especially for teams in the Bears’ situation.
The second would be a maximum restructure, which would require the player to sign off and would be considered more of a renegotiation. In most cases, a maximum restructure would add void years to the end of the contract, thereby lowering cap hits throughout the life of the deal. While the Bears are getting close to needing to use void years to keep cap hits lower in the short term, I don’t expect them to execute any maximum restructures in the foreseeable future.
For Poles and the Bears, I would expect a few simple restructures from higher-dollar contracts to be a primary way to clear space for the upcoming offseason. The key here is to be careful about who they choose to do these with. Players like Jarrett, Ogbongbemiga, and Edwards would be risky, especially if there is any thought of cutting them next season. To maximize savings on those players, they would likely also be forced to add void years, which is a whole different animal in and of itself.
Here are a few players who could be restructured, along with the savings they would yield in 2026. Similar to the release/trade list, this is not who I believe will be restructured; these are simply their big money-saving options.
WR D.J. Moore $16.826 million saved ($5.8 million dead added from 2027 through 2029)
DE Montez Sweat $9.85 million saved ($9.85 million dead added to 2027)
LG Joe Thuney $7.6 million saved ($8.6 million dead added to 2027)
DE Dayo Odeyingbo $7.393 million saved ($7.393 million dead added to 2027)
CB Jaylon Johnson $6.968 million saved ($7.393 million dead added to 2027)
RG Jonah Jackson $6.883 million saved ($6.393 million dead added to 2027)
DT Grady Jarrett $6.638 million saved ($6.85 million dead added to 2027)
NCB Kyler Gordon $6.05 million saved ($3.195 million dead from 2027 through 2028)
OC Drew Dalman $5.01 million saved ($5.393 million dead added to 2027)
TE Cole Kmet $4.393 million saved ($3.393 million dead added to 2027)
LB T.J. Edwards $3.6 million saved ($3.6 million dead added to 2027)
As seen above, only two players on this list have contracts that run beyond 2027: Moore and Gordon. As a result, their savings would increase, and their dead cap would be lower (on average). The biggest issue with doing restructures with only two years left on a contract is that any savings in 2027 through a release would take a big ding due to the proration lasting two seasons instead of three or four.
Players like Odeyinbo, Jarrett, and Edwards make virtually zero sense to restructure. In many ways, deciding to restructure aging (or unproductive, high-priced veterans) is simply robbing Peter to pay Paul over the course of one year. Maybe the team would have enough faith that Odeyingbo could bounce back in Year 2, but that would be a risky gamble. Restructuring any of these three would mean a combined $17.843 less in savings on releases in 2027, compared with simply leaving their contracts alone.
It goes without saying that any restructuring executed this offseason would, in turn, take a portion of their projected space in 2027 and beyond (depending on the contract). Instead of doing restructures, certain players could simply be extended and have their contracts re-worked. For players like Sweat, Johnson, Jackson, Dalman, and Kmet, that route could make more sense. In fact, I would almost bet on Kmet getting a short-term extension to lower his cap hits and up his guarantees.
While the avenue to save close to $85.919 million would come from all simple restructures, it’s easy to see why a more realistic savings figure would be in the $50- $60 million range. Now that we’ve covered some of the impacts these moves would have on their bottom line in 2027, let’s take a deeper dive into next year’s outlook.
Looking Ahead To 2027
Before the start of free agency or the results of April’s draft, the Bears sit at 28 players under contract for 2027. With a projected cap number of $327 million, Chicago would be sitting at $69.646 million in available space for next offseason. It’s worth bearing in mind that the figure does not account for a likely fifth-year option for Darnell Wright that will cost them $20.497 million in cap space.
Assuming they execute a few extensions and restructures this offseason, you can safely assume that somewhere around $35 million, if not slightly more, will be taken off the top of next offseason’s cap space figure. There are certain ways Poles can (and likely will) get creative to save additional space, but this would be a more reasonable assumption when looking ahead to 2027 and what space they might have.
Now, some good news. Without any restructuring (or extensions to account for), the Bears will have much more flexibility when it comes to cutting aging and/or unproductive veterans. Here’s a list of players who could give the team notable savings by a Pre-June 1st release.
DE Montez Sweat $21 million in potential savings ($11.15 million if restructured)
WR D.J. Moore $20.5 million in potential savings ($14.7 million if restructured)
LG Joe Thuney $16.5 million in potential savings ($7.9 million if restructured)
CB Jaylon Johnson $16 million in potential savings ($8.607 million if restructured)
DE Dayo Odeyingbo $15 million in potential savings ($7.607 million if restructured)
RG Jonah Jackson $13.5 million in potential savings ($7.107 million if restructured)
DT Grady Jarrett $12.75 million in potential savings ($5.9 million if restructured)
C Drew Dalman $12 million in potential savings ($6.607 million if restructured)
TE Cole Kmet $10 million in potential savings ($6.607 million if restructured)
LB T.J. Edwards $8.5 million in potential savings ($4.9 million if restructured)
NCB Kyler Gordon $8.3 million in potential savings ($5.105 million if restructured)
Going back to 2026 and their restructuring options, it’s easy to see who makes the most sense. Part of that will be a gamble for Poles and this coaching staff to project who they believe will continue to ascend heading into 2027, but veterans like Jarrett, Edwards, and Odeyingbo make little sense to restructure, unless they have a strong feeling these players will be around for the following year.
On the plus side, with some of these potential releases, it will be easy for the Bears to pick up an easy $36.25 million in savings with the releases of Odeyingbo, Jarrett, and Edwards. Without projecting any restructures for 2027 and beyond, being able to bank $36.25 million is a nice card to have under any general manager’s sleeve. In total, the team’s outlook for 2027 and beyond looks much looser, but some of that will depend on how they handle the next few months. No matter how the offseason plays out, the team’s flexibility will open up again next offseason, which should give some fans a sigh of relief.
