Reunited and it feels… nostalgic.
This week, we had the pleasure of connecting with MacGregor Wells, the Deputy Manager for Gang Green Nation, to give us some insight into who these New York Jets are through two weeks. We learned how Jets fans are still very much in a “wait and see” moment with this football team, what Geno Smith needs to do in order to be successful during his second stint in Gotham, and what to make of these suffocating performances from the defense—and much more.
1. The New York
Jets are off to about as good of a start as they could have anticipated. Led by Aaron Glenn, this defense ranks third in DVOA–first in run defense and sixth in pass defense. For all the mockery they faced at last year’s trade deadline, the Jets look like they’re a team on the rise.
But after losing last week to the Green Bay Packers, with the questions surrounding Glenn’s game-management decisions, does it still feel like it appears to be from the outside looking in at this team?
I think for the most part we’re in wait and see mode at this point in the season.The Jets defense has played well, but they have benefitted from the schedule, which started with a very bad Titans offense the Jets manhandled. Then we had a sloppy game in the rain against a Packers team with what looks like a bad offensive line dealing with multiple injuries. You can only play the teams on the schedule, and so far the Jets defense has done well, but I think the jury’s out on what this will look like against the better offenses in the NFL. The Jets secondary is of particular concern. I think over the course of the season we will see the Jets secondary get exploited.
On offense the Jets have a good offensive line and some pretty good weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, but so far that side of the ball remains a work in progress. They did well against a bad Titans team but struggled against the Packers. Are the Jets on the rise? I suppose, but coming off one of the worst teams I have ever seen last year, on the rise is expected; it would be difficult to be worse.
2. Geno Smith’s triumphant return to the team that drafted him 13 years ago is one helluva winding circle back to where it all started. Glenn moved on from Tanner Engstrand in January and hired veteran offensive mind Frank Reich to be the team’s third offensive coordinator in as many years. Smith’s lone season in Las Vegas was disastrous, finishing with a league-high 17 interceptions.
It’s interesting to see Smith completing over 70% of his passes, sixth in completion percentage over expected, and 16th in EPA/dropback. How has Geno gotten off to such a sound start, what role has Reich served in that turnaround, and how optimistic are you in Smith playing the kind of football he needs to play when the other side of the ball is playing the way they are?
Smith has always been an accurate quarterback with a strong arm. The issues with him haven’t been with his arm talent. The issues have always been his decision making and his ability to process what’s in front of him in a timely manner. He has always been prone to turnovers. While he has avoided turnovers thus far this year, I doubt he has changed this part of his game so late in his career. Ultimately if you don’t ask too much of Smith he can competently execute the offense. Give him enough time and he will deliver the ball accurately. The Jets have a pretty good offensive line so there should be a good number of games when Smith has plenty of time and he’ll competently execute the offense. However, there will be games when the offensive line allows pressure on Smith. Then he and the Jets offense will struggle. Sacks and turnovers will follow. Ask him to carry the team and Smith will likely implode.
3. New York’s stifling start on defense has a lot to do with their top draft pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, David Bailey. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, “Bailey has generated 11 pressures (23.4% pressure rate) and two sacks on 47 pass rushes, the third-most pressures by a rookie edge rusher through Week 2 in the Next Gen Stats era, trailing only Nick Bosa and Josh Hines-Allen (12 each in 2019).” His incredible athleticism is making all the difference right now, also according to Next Gen Stats: “Bailey is averaging a 0.75 second get-off time, the seventh-fastest among 92 edge rushers with at least 40 pass rushes. His 11 pressures are more than the rest of the Jets’ edge rushers combined (10).”
With numbers like this Bailey has to be popping off the screen. Where is he primarily lining up on defense, what sort of versatility has he shown, and did the Jets just get the steal of last year’s draft?
Bailey is primarily lining up on the edge. He is playing with his hand in the dirt at times and as a stand up pass rusher at other times. The Jets will occasionally drop him into coverage. I’m not sure that’s a great idea, other than as a rare gimmick to try to confuse the offense. Did the Jets get the steal of the draft? Oh, I don’t know. Two things here. First, I don’t think we can draw much in the way of conclusions based on two games. Second, Bailey was the #2 pick. At that slot it’s pretty difficult to be the steal of the draft. Great things are expected from #2 overall picks. To be the steal of the draft he’d have to outperform already sky high expectations. I like what I’ve seen for the most part from Bailey, but I would hesitate to already call him the steal of the draft.
4. The Jets’ defense has put up some incredibly eye-popping performances through two weeks. They held both the Titans and the Packers to less than 200 total yards in back-to-back weeks, and they’re tied for the fourth-best mark in EPA per play allowed (-0.25) and sack rate (8.5%).
Which players, outside of Bailey, have been key to New York’s impressive defensive play to start the season? Have you noticed any new wrinkles to the defense, or any new emphases placed on this side of the ball?
The Jets defense has played well so far, though, as discussed above, the schedule has probably had something to do with this. I would say the players who have stood out so far other than Bailey would be edge Kingsley Enagbare, who has surprised me with his stout overall play, defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat, who has done great work against the run, safety Dane Belton, who has been a sure tackler and fundamentally sound at his position, and second year cornerback Azareye’h Thomas, who has been sticky in coverage despite his speed limitations. The Jets are finding success by shutting down the run with strong defensive line play early, then putting pressure on the quarterback when he has to pass. This isn’t some revolutionary scheme, just sound fundamental defensive football so far. We’ll see how that holds up against better offenses. The secondary still appears to me to be vulnerable against better offenses.
5. The Jets opened as 7.5-point underdogs heading into Week 3 against a Lions team still licking their wounds after taking a beating the entire world saw courtesy of Josh Allen and Co. Since then the line has moved to the Lions being a 6.5-point favorite over at FanDuel Sportsbook.
What’s one thing you want to see, what’s one thing you need to see, and one thing you’re sure you’ll see happen at Ford Field this Sunday?
One thing I want to see: the Jets getting first round pick Kenyon Sadiq more involved in the offense. They spent the 16th pick in the first round on a tight end. They need to get more production out of him.
One thing I need to see: Breece Hall running more effectively. The Jets gave Hall a big bucks contract extension, presumably to be the bell cow back. Thus far this season his performance has been underwhelming to say the least. It’s just two games, but I need to see a lot more from Hall going forward.
One thing I’m sure I’ll see: Amon Ra St. Brown torching the Jets secondary. Let’s be real here, the Jets don’t have anyone who can stick with St. Brown. The only way this doesn’t happen is if Jared Goff is so harried by the Jets pass rush he has no time to get the ball to St. Brown. I don’t think that will happen.
