Hello, everyone. The NBA trade deadline is days away. That means we’re going to be covering every rumor, no matter how obscure, for the rest of the week.
Today, I want to unpack the pros and cons of the Cleveland Cavaliers hypothetically trading for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
If you’re wondering how or if this type of move is possible, I’d suggest reading Jackson’s breakdown from yesterday. To cut to the chase, here are the three deals he included:
Offer 1
- Cavs trade: Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, 2030 first-round pick swap, ‘31 first-round pick, ‘32 first-round pick swap
- Bucks trade: Antetokounmpo
Offer 2
- Cavs trade: Garland, Allen, Jaylon Tyson, ‘30 first-round pick swap, ‘32 first-round pick swap
- Bucks trade: Antetokounmpo
Offer 3
- Cavs trade: Evan Mobley, Max Strus, ‘30 first-round pick swap, ‘32 first-round pick swap
- Bucks trade: Antetokounmpo
With those offers in mind, let’s get
into the nuance of making a move this drastic.
Pro: Massive Talent
The best player in the Eastern Conference would play for Cleveland. That’s pretty straightforward.
Cavs fans know better than anyone that sometimes simply having the best player on the floor is enough to win you a game, series, or even the championship. Giannis might not be as dominant as LeBron James was, but in a wide-open Eastern Conference, one could assume that all he needs is a decent supporting cast to trample his way back to the NBA Finals.
Cleveland would have a stronger supporting cast than Milwaukee, no matter which deal they go with. Antetokounmpo’s star power would either be flanked by a combination of Mitchell and Mobley—or Mitchell, Allen, and Garland. Either way, that’s a minimum of three All-Star caliber players in the starting lineup.
The rest of the rotation would still be strong, too. The Cavs would be keeping Sam Merrill (and/or Max Strus), Keon Ellis, Dean Wade, and Dennis Schroder. I’d imagine they fight tooth and nail to keep Tyson, as well. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if Tyson was considered untouchable. He’s the type of player you don’t give up so easily.
All of this to say, Cleveland gets an MVP and bona fide superstar in Antetokounmpo. A player who is capable of elevating his performance in the playoffs and meeting all their needs for size and shot creation. You can argue that Giannis is enough to make up for the loss of Allen and Garland on his own. And, he might be better currently than Mobley ever will be.
Circling back to my first point, the Cavs wouldn’t just be getting the best player in the deal; they’d be gaining the best player in the conference. That’s historically a good sign.
Con: A few Cautionary Tales
Big swings can lead to embarrassing misses. We haven’t seen a team win a championship after making a homerun swing since the Los Angeles Lakers won with Anthony Davis in the 2020 Bubble.
Seriously, those massive “all-in” moves haven’t been paying off for anyone else.
The Oklahoma City Thunder built their championship roster from the ground up with smart drafting and small moves on the margins. The Boston Celtics did the same, tinkering with trades for Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday, but never selling the farm or letting go of the J’s.
The Denver Nuggets followed the same formula. They didn’t panic and trade Jamal Murray. Instead, they gave that group enough time to grow together, while making ancillary moves to improve the supporting cast until they finally broke through in 2023.
And then there’s the 2021 Bucks, who kept their group together despite multiple failures before winning the title over the Phoenix Suns. It wasn’t until the Bucks gave up on that core (maybe justifiably) that everything truly collapsed.
Now think of the teams that have taken big swings during this same stretch.
The Brooklyn Nets whiffed on their big three of Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Kevin Durant. The Suns would later make a similar mistake, coming up woefully short on a big three of their own.
Milwaukee, as mentioned, traded for Damian Lillard before realizing how valuable Holiday’s defense actually was. The Dallas Mavericks… well, I don’t really know what the Mavericks were thinking when they traded Luka Doncic. That one’s on them.
My point is, each of the last five champions stuck to their guns. This is true for most championship teams if you comb back through NBA history. Seismic changes rarely pay off. And, it’s even more unlikely that a massive move at the trade deadline works in your favor.
Relating this to the Cavs, they may already have the talent to win a championship. Kneecapping their future for a 31-year-old star who relies heavily on his athleticism could be a short-sighted and unnecessary move.
For example, let’s say they include Mobley and Tyson in the deal. Two young stars with loads of potential in exchange for an aging Antetokounmpo (with mounting injuries). That’s the type of move that lends itself to immense criticism a few years down the line if it doesn’t work out. A self-inflicted, franchise-altering error is something you should work hard to avoid.
Championship squads might shuffle the deck, but they don’t throw away the cards and start a brand new game. The NBA’s landscape has changed enough that being a top-heavy squad isn’t going to cut it. You need depth, continuity, and admittedly, a whole lot of luck. Cleveland would be seriously testing their luck with an overhaul at the deadline.
Conclusion:
I can’t fault anyone who wants to trade for Antetokounmpo. Hell, I wouldn’t exactly be complaining if #34 was wearing a Cavs jersey. It’s not hard to get excited about a player of his caliber joining the roster.
The packages required for Antetokounmpo aren’t unreasonable. But they are loaded with the potential to backfire. Mobley looks like he’ll be a DPOY, All-NBA candidate for the next 10 years. Garland has been one of the league’s best floor generals when healthy. Allen just put up 40 points and 17 rebounds in 30 minutes. Does Cleveland need to give up one (or multiple) of those players for a star who could be a short-term rental (either due to health or free agency)?
It takes guts to win a championship. While I highlighted the dangers of putting all your chips in the middle, it’s still true that every title team took risks. The question is whether or not you believe the Cavs need to take that risk at this point in their timeline.
