We took a look at available center fielders earlier in the week and it is now time to take a look at available left fielders. This time we will only look at free agent left fielders because there really are no good internal options and the trade market is vast and hard to predict. That being said, we really have two groups of players we can look at. We have players that have been regular players and therefore are likely to be a little more pricey than their platoon counterparts.
As per usual, we will
take a look at their career slash statistics, isolated power, isolated patience, real offensive value, and bases per out. Real offensive value is a hybrid stat I invented to encompass both batting average and the majority of secondary average (isolated power + isolated patience) averaged together. It can be interpreted as a comparable stat to batting average. Bases per out simply takes total bases, stolen bases, walks, and hit by pitches and divides that sum by the total number of outs that player accrues. Below we will look at a table that will show what the Astros collectively did in left field last season and what the overall league average is in each of those categories.
Keep in mind that Yordan Alvarez played some games in left field, so his awesome numbers are driving the overall Astros left field numbers up some. That would account for the superior isolated power and patience. Obviously, none of the Astros left fielders brought any speed to the table, so they fell behind in bases per out as compared to the big league average. So, the charge is the same as in center field. Find at least a league average hitter in addition to Alvarez.
Big Ticket Free Agents
Let’s start with the elephant in the room. There is no way in hell that George Springer is producing these numbers in 2027. He had a 99 OPS+ last season. He got off to a slow start and came on in the end, but he isn’t coming close to these numbers. Could he be a league average bat in left field? Of course he could. However, going that direction would say many things about the Astros and the direction they are going. Getting the band back together would certainly feel good, but it probably wouldn’t add many wins.
There is a universe where the Astros could afford any of these guys. The Astros are sitting at 238 million according to Spotrac.com, but they could conceivably deal Jeremy Pena, Christian Walker, and Josh Hader to free up room for them to spend in other areas. Jim Crane could also loosen some purse strings if the new collective bargaining agreement allows. Just because you can afford something doesn’t mean that you should buy it.
Spotrac estimates Arozorena’s market value at five years and 127 million. That would eat up most of the available budget on one guy. Is he really that much better than the other three? Happ sits at just under 20 million per season according to Spotrac, Ward sits at about 17.5 million a season, and Springer sits at ten million respectively. Is the extra 7.5-17.5 million a season really getting you that much more? That of course spills us into the second tier of free agents that could be classified as platoon bats.
Available Platoon Bats
By sheer definition, these are all players with some warts. Signing them becomes a large part in choosing which warts you are willing to live with. Laureano comes with a ton of volatility. He had an 83 OPS+ last season, but he seems to alternate great and bad seasons every year. If you are signing a one year contract then you are simply gambling that it will be one of the good seasons.
Conforto is likely a little like Springer in that this career average contains his early seasons when he was an all-star level player. Still, he was very good last season in a part-time role. He also has some defensive limitations that make playing him regularly problematic. Still, he might give you the best production of the group and his production would rival some of the guys above for an average of nine million a year according to Spotrac.
Austin Hays really doesn’t do a whole lot for me, but Grichuk is a guy that is intriguing for a number of reasons. He has played every outfield spot in his career and his power is tantalizing. I hate his hitting profile (low OBP skills) but we aren’t looking for Al Simmons here. We want a league average big league outfielder and he has been that for the better part of a decade. Spotrac thinks he is due about nine million a season just like Conforto.
Final Thoughts
While I think every fan would love to see the Arozorena’s and Happ’s of the world, I just don’t see that as horribly realistic. If you estimate that you could free up 35-40 million through trades and increased spending, spending 20 million or more on one position just doesn’t make financial sense. It would make more sense to spend around ten million in left, maybe something similar on a starter, and then the rest on bench players and/or relief arms. That would seem to point the finger squarely at someone like Springer, Conforto, or Grichuk.
The fan in me would love to see Springer back, but the analyst would hate it. Conforto and Grichuk have more left in the tank and would give you the best opportunity to improve on the Nelson Velasquez’s, Lamont Wade’s, and Taylor Trammel’s of the world. Incremental improvement is the name of the game. Gain a game or two in center and left field each and then hope you gain the rest on the mound.
