Davante Adams posted the lowest completion percentage of his 12-year NFL career in 2025, at 52.6%. What caused that?
Some of the problem was he and Matthew Stafford not completely gelling, but, most notable to me, it was simply Adams not completing the catch. At 33 years old, was Father Time tapping him on the shoulder? According to a study by Dwain McFarland, it could be the case.
“To appropriately understand the magnitude of age in the WR performance equation, I decided to divide production at each
age (20 to 40) by their prime production. Prime production equals the average fantasy points per game for a player’s best three-year stretch in their career, and player ages were rounded based on their age on Week 1 for each season.
After compiling that data across every season where a WR had at least 200 routes from 2011 to 2023, we get a clear picture of when WRs are at their peak and when they begin to decline. For the sake of simplicity, buckets were created for age groups based on performance.“
However, looking at the drop off in catch percentage, I wondered if that particular statistic could be explained by something else. Age doesn’t necessarily hamper a player’s ability to catch the ball, does it?
Was it scheme?
I found a clip of every single pass thrown to Adams and watched it a couple of times. Davante Adams ran a highly diversified route tree with the Los Angeles Rams in 2025, excelling in vertical routes, deep comebacks, and red-zone slants, but he looked very uncomfortable on crossing patterns when the ball was thrown while he was running between the hash marks. He was fine, however, running a curl, finding a spot, and sitting there. I think I found out why.
During the second play in this clip of Adams in the Houston game, Stafford hits Adams on a crossing pattern at the left hashmark. When he’s down on his knees, Henry To’o To’o drops his shoulder and hits Adams in the head with a brutal shot. If it were a college game, I suspect To’o To’o would have been tossed for targeting. His trepidation in the middle of the field after this hit is understandable.
Understanding the physics of a head-on collision like this takes years of study, but to put it simply in sports involving contact, the force in a head-on collision is roughly equal to the sum of the speeds of the two players. If Adams was traveling at 19 mph and To’o To’o at 17 mph, the force Adams would have felt would be like running into a brick wall at 36 mph. Being tackled from behind or from the side creates a fraction of that force.
Over the course of the season, as I watched, it was the same on virtually every pass. Curl routes, over the shoulder, end zone fades, and anything along the sidelines, he looked confident. Across the middle, with the possibility of a collision, and he often looked like he had T. Rex arms. The ball would hit his fingertips and fall to the ground incomplete.
Or was it age?
I also went and watched clips from his good years with Aaron Rodgers. It was absolutely magical the way Rodgers could float the ball into not even a window but a keyhole, and Adams would wait until the very last possible moment to raise his hands to the ball and make the catch. One can only hope that Adams and Stafford reach that comfort zone. With their first year together under their belts, I can see that happening.
It also became pretty apparent, watching Adams from four and five years ago and comparing him to today, that he’s either a step slower, or the defensive backs are a bit faster. In those Green Bay clips, he was constantly beating guys with speed. Another possible sign of him aging are the two hamstring injuries. One with the Jets in 2024 and, of course, the one last season. Studies have determined that the most consistent non‐modifiable factors for hamstring strains are age and the history of a prior hamstring injury.
So is it age? Or is it scheme? It’s undeniable he’s slower, but he still finds ways to get open and can make ridiculous catches. Maybe Sean McVay just needs to keep him out of those uncomfortable situations to get the production numbers back up.
