Okay, it’s a non-Braves-related question this time.
Right now, if you go to FanGraphs and sort by position player fWAR with 200 or more PAs, you get a list that maybe isn’t that surprising. Or, rather, the placement of some guys might be surprising, but anyway…
Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani — those guys are phenomenal but they were better last year. Cal Raleigh is having a legendary season but has been an All-Star-plus quality guy for years now.
Trea Turner, Corbin Carroll, Jose Ramirez,
Fernando Tatis Jr., Julio Rodriguez… you get the idea. Pete Crow-Armstrong was above-average in a partial season last year. Nick Kurtz is raking as a rookie; Junior Caminero barely had 200 PAs before this season. Dillon Dingler isn’t exactly a household name, but again, just 87 PAs in his career before 2025.
My point is that basically the entire top 30 this year is either stars, above-average players having star seasons, or a few rookie types that have burst onto the scene.
But, it also involves two (just two!) other things.
Geraldo Perdomo is currently fifth in MLB with 6.7 fWAR. Perdomo has played a full-time-ish (injury aside) role for the Diamondbacks going back to 2022. In 2022, he had 0.3 fWAR and a .269 xwOBA that he underhit. In 2023, he had 2.3 fWAR and a .275 xwOBA that he way overhit. In 2024, he had 2.0 fWAR and a .282 xwOBA that he way overhit. Perdomo looked like a nice player but not really even a building block, as he neither defended nor hit well enough to be all that exciting. Well, anyway, this year he has a .363 xwOBA (that he’s still way overhitting), and therefore one of the best performances of the season. Nor is it the product of a scorching streak alone, as he’s had a wRC+ at 125 or above in every month this year other than June.
Maikel Garcia is similar to Perdomo in that they were both 50 FV shortstop prospects. Garcia has played a full-time role in Kansas City from 2023-on. In 2023, he had 2.2 fWAR and a .319 xwOBA that he underhit. In 2024, he had 1.2 fWAR and a .300 xwOBA that he way underhit. It was unclear that Garcia was even going to be a regular, rather than a utility infielder going forward. Well, in 2025, he has 5.1 fWAR and a .349 xwOBA that he’s overhitting. It’s not quite as dramatic as Perdomo, but it’s dramatic in a vacuum.
So, who do you think is going to break a chain of a handful of average-y seasons with a big, out-of-nowhere-esque breakout in 2026?
