Much has been made of the Los Angeles Rams earning the title of preseason Super Bowl favorites. While the distinguishment is meaningless until LA proves its credentials on the field, this is an acknowledgement of an impressive offseason on the heels of a NFC Championship berth.
Winning the Super Bowl is the apple of everyone’s eye.
The New England Patriots proved this in 2007 when they won 18-straight games (including playoffs) before falling short to the New York Giants in the championship. History
remembers the 1972 Miami Dolphins much more kindly. The Patriots are left as a footnote of NFL history.
But could the Rams somehow thread the needle and both claim the title of “world champions” and finish perfect in the regular season?
First, let’s take a look at how likely it is that Los Angeles could finish the regular season perfect:
| Rank | Team | 17-0 Probability | Approx. Odds | Model Projected Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriots | 0.0652% | 1 in 1,533 | 11.2 |
| 2 | Seahawks | 0.0414% | 1 in 2,418 | 10.9 |
| 3 | Rams | 0.0252% | 1 in 3,967 | 10.6 |
| 4 | Jaguars | 0.0126% | 1 in 7,968 | 10.1 |
| 5 | Bills | 0.0118% | 1 in 8,475 | 10.2 |
So there’s definitely a chance. The odds are one in 3,967.
The implied probability that the Rams both finish undefeated and win the Super Bowl are roughly one in 24,000.
Why are Patriots, Seahawks ahead of Rams?
The acquisition of Myles Garrett strengthened LA’s championship resume, as will the potential return of Aaron Donald. The Super Bowl odds shifted in the Rams’ favor after the Garrett trade and could move again if Donald makes things official.
But while the championship odds acknowledge the Rams’ aggressive changes, the season win totals did not move much. They largely have stayed the same over the course of the entire offseason.
I would maybe even conclude that the Rams’ project win total is too low and that the implied probability of going undefeated should be higher.
What would undefeated mean to you?
This is probably the Rams’ best chance to go undefeated in a lifetime. It’s rare for both the reigning MVP, Matthew Stafford, and DPOY, Garrett, to play on the same roster.
How meaningful would a 17-0 record feel to you? Is it more memorable in Rams history than another championship?
Let’s hash it out in the comments below.
