The talk is over, and the Virginia Cavaliers have arrived in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for their first-round matchup against the 14-seeded Wright State Raiders on Friday afternoon at 1:50 PM. The ‘Hoos are -4000 odds to win and are favored by 17.5 points according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Make of that what you will…
Virginia will be looking to take home its first NCAA Tournament win since its memorable run in 2019, and Wright State eyes just its second
tournament victory in school history, its first being in the First Four against Bryant in 2022.
Wright State has been a 14 seed in the big dance twice in its school’s history, suffering 79-58 and 73-47 losses to Pittsburgh in 2007 and 3-seed Tennessee in 2018, respectively. Virginia, on the other hand, has never been a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, but is no stranger to dangerous double-digit seeds, as their last three defeats in this tournament have been to double-digit seeds.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, right? Try telling that to a Virginia fan, I dare you. However, this time out for Virginia, it very well may be the case. A whole new regime, a different style of basketball, and a roster with no affiliation with the past results. This roster is filled with veterans who are hungry to win, and a coaching staff that knows exactly how to do it.
Wright State is no cupcake, but they also aren’t the stereotypical Cinderella team in the way they don’t rely solely on threes to get the job done. They emphasize getting to the rim and are very effective inside the three-point line. Virginia will certaintly have to play solid basketball to advance on Friday. Here are three keys to victory for the Cavaliers.
1. Defend the paint
Virginia is the best team in the nation in blocks per game and is also up there among the best in overall interior defense. With Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Gruenloh averaging 5.2 of the team’s 6.5 per game, those two have to be on top of their game with defending the paint throughout the tournament if the Cavaliers want to make a run, and that starts against Wright State.
Over 75% of the Raiders’ field goals come from inside the arc; they are a lot like Miami (FL) in the way they can shoot the three ball (the Raiders are shooting at a 36.1% clip), but their bread and butter is dominating inside. They prefer their scoring to happen near the rim. Virginia’s priority No. 1 must be to hinder that and force them into shots they aren’t used to taking.
2. Dominate the interior
From the opening tip, Virginia has to make its intentions clear, and one of those intentions should be to play an inside-out style of basketball. Virginia’s guards will be able to beat their man off the dribble, Thijs De Ridder will be able to pick and choose what type of shot he wants around the rim, and the pair of Gruenloh and Onyenso will have a clear advantage in the post. Once they establish their will in the paint, the shots around the perimeter will be there, and it’s barbecue chicken from there.
3. Be warriors on the glass
With the size difference in this one, second-chance points should be a foreign concept to Wright State in this one, and the opposite should be true for Virginia. Crash the glass and hunt for the basketball off the rim. Virginia is one of the top rebounding teams in this tournament, and if they can make that their identity throughout their life in the 2026 bid dance, they are poised for a deep run.
