We’ve all been there before. We’ve sat and watched as a Braves player hits a ball directly on the screws only for it to go straight into a defender’s glove. There’s also the infamous cases of deep fly balls that all look destined for the seats upon contact only for the outfielder to either scamper under it to make the catch or it just dies at the warning track thanks to the divine intervention of nature.
If you’re like me, you also make a beeline for Baseball Savant just to see whether or not the eye
test matches up with the sabermetrics. If you’re also like me, this is when you either see a low xBA and shrug your shoulders or you see a high one and proceed to attempt to rip out your hair. Either way, I also feel like the best way to get over a bad situation is to take a look at the situation, see what you could’ve done differently and adjust for the future. So with all of that out of the way, it’s time to take a look at what Statcast’s xBA metric felt were the 10 biggest robberies of hits that the Atlanta Braves were forced to suffer through in 2025.
No. 10 – Nick Allen, May 9 at Pirates, .914 xBA
It sure just seems like a routine fly ball to center (and to be fair, that’s what all these robberies will look like in the box score where it ultimately counts) but as the Pirates’ commentary crew pointed out, Oneil Cruz “made it look easy” by getting a very good job on a ball that was hit absolutely on the nose by Nick Allen. It was just that type of season at the plate for Nick Allen, y’all.
No. 9 – Nick Allen, April 26 at Diamondbacks, .917 xBA
Again, it was just that type of year at the plate for Nick Allen. The story here is the same as it was for his first entry on this list, except this time he hit it to right field instead of center field and it was Corbin Carroll doing the robbery this time. Oof.
No. 8 – Sean Murphy, May 30 vs. Red Sox, .923 xBA
This is the stuff of nightmares. It passes the eye test as Sean Murphy certainly got all of this one and hit it absolutely on the button. If this had happened in seven other ballparks, the Braves would’ve gone up 2-0 on the Red Sox at that point. Instead, Ceddane Rafaela was able to grab it at the fence and this was another frustrating moment in a season full of them for the Braves.
No. 7 – Ozzie Albies, May 24 vs. Padres, .924 xBA
This is probably the first one that really doesn’t pass the eye test. Maybe it was because Jake Cronenworth was perfectly positioned to simply snag the ball out of the air in order to rob Ozzie of a bloop single? Either way, it doesn’t have the “wow” factor or the factor of simply appreciating a great play from the defender. This is one of those plays that seems like it’s a ho-hum soft line out instead of highway robbery. The xBA metric sure held this one in high regard, though.
No. 6 – Michael Harris II, May 29 at Phillies, .931 xBA
Johan Rojas ended up making this look like just a simple running catch instead of something that arguably should’ve been a dinger. Money Mike hit this one 404 feet and it would’ve been a home run in nine ballparks. Instead, Harris hit it to what is just about the deepest part of the ballpark and that gave Rojas just enough time to get under it and make the catch. The Braves needed every home run they could get this past season so it was a bummer to see this one get snatched away — especially against a divisional rival. With that being said, Money Mike has made a habit out of robbing the Phillies in their own ballpark so turnabout is fair play, I suppose.
No. 5 – Marcell Ozuna, June 4 vs. Diamondbacks, .934 xBA
Another case where the defender appears to be more-or-less in the right place at the right time. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. only had to take a few quick steps to turn what would’ve surely been extra bases for Marcell Ozuna into another U-turn towards the dugout. Blah.
No. 4 – Ozzie Albies, May 14 vs. Nationals, .937 xBA
More soft contact from Ozzie Albies on his second entry in this list but at least this one seems a bit easier to imagine being a hit. There’s a universe where James Wood can’t immediately track down the ball and it rolls to the fence for a big hit. Instead of pondering the multiverse, all we can do is just discuss how this one just turned into a harmless out.
No. 3 – Ronald Acuña Jr., September 3 at Cubs, .966 xBA
Hoo boy, Cade Horton got away with one here. Usually if you leave a ball that tantalizing in the middle of the zone for Ronald Acuña Jr. to hit, it’s going to get sent into the next zip code. Instead, Acuña just missed it and you can tell that he knew he didn’t get all of it because while he got his full follow-through on the swing, he started busting it out of the batter’s box instead of going into his home run trot. Willi Castro still had to bust it, himself, in order to get to this ball and at also doesn’t help matters that this would’ve been a dinger in at least two ballparks.
No. 2 – Jurickson Profar, August 23 vs. Mets, .969 xBA
I regret to inform you that Jeff McNeil made a fantastic play in order to rob Jurickson Profar of a base hit. The only thing amusing about this clip is the Cow statue making a cameo appearance on the Mets SNY feed. I hope y’all sleep well with the thought of that cow’s eyes boring deep into your soul.
No. 1 – Nacho Alvarez Jr., July 23 vs. Giants, .989 xBA
A .989 xBA indicates that this more-than-likely should’ve ended up in being a bloop single for poor Nacho Alvarez Jr. Instead, the batted ball stayed up just long enough for Heliot Ramos to make a spectacular diving catch in order to complete the robbery. It passes the sabermetric test. It definitely passes the eye test. This was highway robbery no matter how you slice it.
BONUS – Lucky Dog Award: Michael Harris II, August 17 at Guardians, .003 xBA
It seems like as badly as things were going for Michael Harris II in the first half of the season, that’s how well things went for Money Mike in the second half. This was just another example of how everything was turning up Money Mike as the season progressed. This should’ve been a routine infield pop up but instead, the entire Cleveland infield was left mystified and blinded by the sun as Michael Harris II ended up collecting the most unlikely hit of the 2025 season for the Atlanta Braves.
So, for those of y’all who were braves enough to join me down this this tragic memory lane, can any of y’all think of any other examples of egregiously bad luck for the Braves? Let us know!
