The more things change, the more they stay the same, as we arrive at a new season for the Dallas Cowboys with the opponent being the New York Giants for the fifth time since 2015 in week one. Both teams have enough new faces on the field, and perhaps more importantly on the sidelines, to bring some freshness to this rivalry, but when really boiling down to the players we think will decide the Sunday Night Football opener’s winner, they are players established within this rivalry.
Last year before
each Cowboys game, we took a shot at predicting Dallas’ best path to victory against that specific opponent, and also the biggest challenge that opponent presented to the Cowboys’ chances of winning. It is time to dust off these predictions yet again, starting with a Giants team looking to make it back-to-back wins in consecutive games from MetLife Stadium against the Cowboys – who have owned the season-opening part of this rivalry with an 11-1 record.
The Dallas Cowboys will beat the New York Giants if…
Jake Ferguson is involved in the passing attack
Another reason we started this off by saying the more things change, the more they stay the same, is because of Jake Ferguson and his projection coming into week one. It is a familiar position where Ferguson is a clear TE1, all of the hype about other tight ends on the depth chart has faded from training camp until now. Within yet another offense where the Cowboys are loaded at wide receiver, it still feels like the real measure of how dangerous their pass offense can be is how consistently Ferguson is a factor here.
Ferguson had his second highest volume of targets, second highest number of receptions, and second most yards of the season in last year’s week two win against the Giants. The Giants defense has been weak at linebacker for as long as anyone can remember, something new head coach John Harbaugh is looking to change along with the overall attitude towards defense in New York. Tremaine Edmunds is their big new free agency acquisition at this spot, after spending 2025 with the Chicago Bears.
For all of the “second best” stats listed above for Ferguson, the first place stats for targets, receptions, and yards came against this Bears defense one week later. Ferguson’s 13 catches on 14 targets were both actually career highs that afternoon too. Edmunds did have two fourth quarter interceptions and led the team in tackles with 15, but neither interception was on a pass intended for Ferguson, and one of them should have been caught by George Pickens.
Even if the Giants like their matchup of Edmunds against Ferguson for this reason, this could be an opportunity for Brian Schottenheimer to put the experience of the Cowboys offense to the test and move personnel around. Doing so to get Ferguson matched up against the likes of Abdul Carter, Kayvon Thibodeaux, or rookie Arvell Reese, all three of whom are much better pass rushers than coverage players, would create an even bigger advantage for Dak Prescott and the road team’s aerial attack.
Speaking of pass rush, there is another massive reason that putting the spotlight on Ferguson for this game is all-important. The Cowboys come into this game with concerns at both tackle spots, something the Giants will surely be looking to take advantage of, along with a backup starting at left guard with T.J. Bass. How much the Cowboys have had to use Ferguson as an extra blocker, or at minimum to chip and release into the pattern, to protect their tackles before has had a direct impact on how many big plays in the pass game Ferguson can make.
If Ferguson is getting loose against a Giants secondary expected to have their hands full with the Cowboys receivers, it will mean the tackle duo of Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele is holding up well, only adding to the reasons to believe in Dallas as week one winners here. An upright Prescott with a plethora of targets to get the ball to has owned the Giants for years on end, and with the Cowboys starting this season with back to back divisional games, the expectation needs to be more of the same right out of the gate on Sunday night.
The Dallas Cowboys will lose to the New York Giants if…
Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo win in the RPO game
New Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker has already called Sunday night the “graduation” for his defense that’s been taking his master’s program on learning the new scheme all offseason. Playing against a Giants offense now in the hands of Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator with year two of Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo at QB and RB is surely harder than just walking down an aisle to receive a diploma when it comes to graduation ceremonies.
The preseason is far from a definitive way to evaluate how teams are going to perform in any way, shape, or form, but if there’s one thing the Cowboys defense should be out to show they can do early based on something they struggled with in exhibitions, it’s set a hard edge for the defense. They’ll have to worry about this in the traditional sense from the Giants run game, with not just Cam Skattebo but Tyrone Tracy, Devin Singletary, and new face Najee Harris. The Cowboys will also be dealing with a mobile quarterback in Dart that can attack the edges of a defense, especially in the RPO game when teamed up with Skattebo.
The Giants will have added motivation to play this game on the edge offensively, with the Cowboys taking their completely revamped group of interior defensive tackles out of bubble wrap for week one. With Week 18 of last season being mostly a wash when it comes to significance in the history of Cowboys-Giants, Dart’s first true start of meaning against the rival Cowboys will come against a defense with Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, and Otito Ogbonnia at the point of attack. Limiting the impact these defenders Dallas has a lot of trust in by moving the pocket consistently and using Dart’s legs could be a big part of the game plan for Big Blue on offense.
Nagy’s offense as a whole is built on creating misdirection and havoc, looking to put defenders in binds and free up receivers with this confusion to the defense. Obviously this is another area the Cowboys defense struggled in mightily last year, and also have reason to believe their communication issues will be fixed in a new system, but it won’t be easy if Nagy is having a great night dialing up plays for the home team.
Look for players like Rashan Gary, DeMarvion Overshown, Dee Winters, Jaishawn Barham, and even Von Miller or Donovan Ezeiruaku to be the ones trying to set the edge and contain Dart or Skattebo for the Cowboys defense. Gary, Winters, and Miller will be making their team debuts, Overshown will be in his first game handling the green dot responsibilities, and Miller plus Ezeiruaku are pass rush specialists the Giants can mitigate by making them the read defenders in option game.
The Giants come into this game with a feeling of being able to play loose on both sides of the ball, something that applied to both matchups against the Cowboys last year. The week two meeting between these teams went to overtime where the Cowboys eventually won, despite the Giants having a lead in the final minute of regulation. The Week 18 season-ending game saw Dart and company beat the Cowboys for the first time in ten tries.
The Cowboys need to be ready to match this new energy the Giants are starting the 2026 season with, and having a defensive answer to one of the biggest question their fans have about this side of the ball against an offense with upside to exploit any weakness on the perimeter would be one of the best ways to do it. Doing so successfully would put this game comfortably in the lap of Prescott, where Dallas can take their chances on number four and his cast of weapons being better than the level Dart, Skattebo, and the Giants receivers are at against Parker’s defense.
