Football is the greatest sport on earth. As we sit here in July, we go through our days monotonously running errands, handling responsibilities, and day dreaming about September. The only way to scratch our football itch is hypotheticals and speculation. So, let’s do just that. What is both the best and worst case scenario for the New Orleans Saints in 2026? Realistically, what can we expect from this Saints team if everything clicks, or if nothing does at all?
The best case scenario for this team
obviously starts with Tyler Shough. The soon-to-be 27 year old Quarterback is entering his second NFL season. Shough looked borderline incredible in his nine starts as a rookie. Many fans are expecting him to be the Saints new franchise Quarterback. Now that Shough will have a full offseason of being the unrivaled starter under his belt, it is very realistic to expect further development from him. If he does come out on fire, the Saints will be poised to make a run for the NFC South crown with arguably the best quarterback in the division.
This is especially true when you factor how much better the offensive situation became around him. A major reason for why Shough’s play in 2025 was so impressive was the lack of offensive fire power he had around him. This certainly included the offensive line which struggled mightily last season. This offseason, the Saints added veteran Guard David Edwards in free agency. Center Erik McCoy will also be coming back from injury. You combine these two interior players with the Saints young tackle duo, Fuaga and Banks, and it’s very easy to foresee a world where this is one of the better units in the NFL providing Shough much needed protection
Accompanying Shough in the backfield will be the running back tandem of Travis Ettiene and Alvin Kamara. Ettiene was the biggest name the Saints brought in this offseason and eclipsed 1000 rushing yards in three of his four seasons in Jacksonville. Kamara will be entering his 10th season with the black and gold. Saints fans may recall the “Boom & Zoom” era with Kamara and Mark Ingram in the late 2010s. Although I wouldn’t necessarily say that the best scenario for the 2026 duo would be to reach those heights, I do believe that the Saints rushing attack can provide great balance to the offense. A luxury that was not present in 2025 as the Saints finished at 28th in total rushing offense.
The passing attack easily has the highest upside. Chris Olave is coming off a career high 1163 yards and 9 touchdowns in 2025 and displayed a great connection with Shough. The Saints also selected Arizona State Receiver Jordan Tyson with the 8th overall pick in the 2026 draft. When he played, Tyson was a super star at the collegiate level. He possesses elite ball skills, route running, and run after catch ability. In my opinion, there is a world where both receivers each surpass 1000 receiving yards in 2026. This is a feat that the Saints haven’t accomplished in a decade, the last time being the 2016-17 season with Brandin Cooks and a rookie Micheal Thomas. Although there are other capable pass catchers on this team, such as Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele, the best case scenario for this offense would necessitate both Olave and Tyson becoming an elite receiver duo. It can certainly happen.
In six seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore produced four top 10 offenses. He achieved this on three different teams with three different quarterbacks (Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts). Moore has proven that he can adapt his offense to different play styles and find offensive production in a variety of ways. This is the final nail in the coffin for why I believe that the ceiling for this offense is to be near or at the top of the league. If all of the stars align, the Saints will enjoy a hungry Tyler Shough who takes a jump individually while simultaneously being surrounded by talented blockers, pass catchers, and ball carriers. This will all be within a system that is run by one of the best young playcallers in the NFL. The sky truly is the limit.
The 2025 Saints defense, no doubt, had some bumps in the road early on. However in the latter half of the season, the unit started to play some great football. Safety Jonas Sanker and Cornerback Quincy Riley both had very promising rookie campaigns in the secondary. Both players will play pivotal roles in 2026, especially with the departure of Alontae Taylor. The secondary also includes third year Cornerback Kool Aid McKinstry, who I believe is nearing a massive crossroads for his career trajectory. His first two seasons have been a mix of up and down moments. This third year could have a crucial effect on his long term NFL and Saints future. I believe that he most likely understands this. It is critical that all three of these players take a jump in order for this defense to reach its full potential. The secondary does have a fair share of veterans however, notable improvement from these three young guys could propel this secondary into one of the premier position groups on the squad.
I shouldn’t have to explain how big of a loss it is to lose Demario Davis. His replacement at linebacker will be Kaden Ellis, who is returning to New Orleans after spending the last three seasons behind enemy lines with that team in Atlanta. Ellis has been highly consistent and productive, starting all 17 games and accumulating over 100 total tackles for each of the past three years. I view Ellis as a known commodity, however the key for this linebacking corpse to max out their potential will be second year player Danny Stutsman. The Saints spent the 112th overall pick on Stutsman in the 2025 draft. He didn’t log a single start as a rookie but, at the time of his selection, many people viewed him as a steal in the fourth round. The 6-foot-3, 233-pound linebacker was an absolute problem at Oklahoma. If Stutsman can emerge as any semblance of that player in the NFL, the Saints will have a much easier time adjusting to the post-Demario Davis era.
Moving to the defensive line, it is impossible to not start with Defensive End Chase Young. Young is coming off his first career 10 sack season. He began to look like an absolute game wrecker in the second half of the year as Brandon Staley’s defense gained momentum as a whole. Young was selected with the second overall pick back in 2020 to the Washington Commanders. He was one of the most hyped up prospects in recent memory, finishing as a 2019 Heisman finalist (which is absurd to do as a defensive player). His time in D.C. was a bit underwhelming when you consider the expectations that were bestowed upon him. Nonetheless, the raw talent is still undeniably elite and he seems to have begun piecing his NFL game together in New Orleans. If he builds on what he did in 2025, he has a chance to become the superstar that many expected him to be out of Ohio State. Due to this possibility, there is massive upside for this pass rush. Every single defense to ever exist in the history of football objectively gets better when you plop an elite tier pass rusher on it. This scenario would give the Saints an elite player at a top three most important position in the sport. Outside of Young, I would also keep an eye on 2025 third rounder Vernon Broughton. Broughton missed virtually his entire rookie season due to a hip injury in 2025. However, he was a force with the Texas Longhorns and the Saints staff clearly liked him enough to draft him. The best case scenario for the defensive line would be for both of these players to make a name for themselves in 2026, especially Young.
In totality, this defense has a realistic shot at finishing as a top 10 to 15 unit. This would be more than good enough to win a weak NFC South, if the offense also hits their ceiling. Brandon Staley’s squad was in a state of constant ascension in his first year. Now that they have continuity going into year two, it is not unreasonable for fans to expect them to pick up where they left off and continue to grow. Just like the offense, the heights of their success hinge on the young talent. If they step into their increased roles nicely, this defense can be very complementary to a high powered offense.
Now let’s halt the sunshine pumping and get pessimistic. What is the disaster outcome for this team? Just like the best case scenario, the worst case scenario also starts with Tyler Shough. There is a phrase in the NFL known as the “Sophomore Slump.” The concept of a promising rookie player regressing in his second year. Recently, NFL fans saw this phenomenon with Texans Quarterback CJ Stroud. This begs a question that, frankly, I hate to ask: What if Shough’s early success in 2025 was a flash in the pan? What if all of this attention gets to his head? He is human, after all. NFL defenses will be ready for him now. There is a big difference in expectation between a rookie quarterback coming in as a backup on a 1-7 team versus being the week one starter that everyone is counting on. Shough will face a new level of individual pressure this season. Imagine if the Saints get to the end of 2026, miss the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, and Shough’s play is disappointing. Now, what kind of situation would they be facing? The Saints would be left with a 28 year old Quarterback going into year three who has an uncertain future. Would they have to consider exploring other options? That seems wild to even think about right now however, crazier things have happened. We’ve only seen this guy start nine NFL games. Although I wouldn’t predict this, I also wouldn’t be jaw droppingly shocked either. These would not be the best vibes. Things can get very sticky.
It behooves me to also bring up Jordan Tyson’s injury history. The receiver missed a third of his collegiate games due to a variety of injuries including knee, collarbone, and hip problems. The best ability is availability. We know Tyson can be a star when he’s on the field but, will he be on the field? This is impossible to predict but certainly worth monitoring. It is also especially relevant when you take into account the injury histories of Chris Olave and Erik McCoy. These are two key players for the Saints offense who have missed significant amounts of time over the past few seasons. The best case scenario for this squad included all three of these guys playing pivotal roles at a high level. If they’re unable to do that for whatever reason, things will look a lot different.
While the offense has the highest ceiling and lowest floor, I believe this defense is the polar opposite. I feel confident that this defense can be formidable at worst. Even if the young secondary players that I mentioned stay stagnant or regress, they will be surrounded by veterans such as Justin Reid, Julian Blackmon, Jordan Howden, and Martin Emerson. Although that may be enough to avoid complete catastrophe in 2026, that situation would open the door for some uncomfortable conversations regarding the team’s future on the backend of the defense.
As reliable of a linebacker as Kaden Ellis is, he’s not Demario Davis. Even at 36 years old, Davis started all 17 games for the Saints in 2025 and played at an elite level. I don’t believe that there is any circumstance where Ellis is a liability at that position, but there could be a significant drop off if he is asked to fill the production void by himself. The Saints need players like Pete Werner, Danny Stutsman, and Isaiah Stalbird to step up to the plate. If none of those guys are anywhere to be found, it could be time for a bit of a reality check. I worry that Demario Davis may have spoiled the Saints when it comes to Linebacker play. The defensive line has a high floor. Even if Chase Young doesn’t break out as a top edge rusher and Vernon Broughton is a total nonfactor, the Saints still have Cameron Jordan, Bryan Bresee, Carl Granderson, and Davon Godchaux. At worst, the pass rush can provide pressure by committee as opposed to one star player.
I really don’t foresee this defense being bad. The worst scenario is below average. The most concerning part of this timeline would be the questions that emerge regarding the future. If these young players don’t pan out the way the Saints anticipated, the team may be looking at a complete defensive overhaul in 2027.
The Saints schedule starts off with an immediate trial by fire, back-to-back road games against the Lions and Ravens. The schedule also includes a “home game” in Paris, France along with a tough three game stretch at the end of November with another set of back-to-back road games in cold weather cities of Chicago and Cincinnati, followed by the Green Bay Packers at home. The worst case scenario for this team would be to start off 0-2 and immediately feel some heat from the outside. This can also be flipped on its head, of course. If we get a statement road win early, then it could be off to the races for Shough and the boys. The Saints did start off 0-2 in that iconic 2017 season before rattling off eight straight wins. In 2026, there is an opportunity for the Saints to get hot in similar fashion with relatively weak competition until Week 11. As important as the roster and coaching is, scheduling dynamics will also play a huge factor in the successes and failures of this team. If the team digs themself in a hole or falls upon treacherous times, it is going to be interesting to see how the young coach and quarterback duo handles it.
Overall, I think the 2026 Saints will look a lot closer to the version that we talked about in the beginning. Maybe, I’m biased. Maybe, I’m just getting my hopes up. Or maybe Tyler Shough is just that good! The franchise is in a much better spot than they were 365 days ago. When the biggest concern is potential injuries or good players just randomly regressing, that usually means you’re doing alright. At the end of the day though, the Saints did finish 6-11 and haven’t made the playoffs since Covid-19 was still going around. This is all just speculation as I monotonously run errands, handle responsibilities, and day dream about September.
