These observations — where I look at Real Madrid’s history, its players on loan, Castilla, tactical tidbits, and other relevant thoughts — are now a regular thing. All previous editions can be found
here.I’ve been keeping a running diary of the past few days around the team heading into Sunday’s Clasico. I’ve compared this to running diaries I kept from last season, as well as one from earlier this season. I’m happy — almost cautiously — to report that the team’s morale has been the best it has been in a long
time — for well over a year, at least.
I mentioned this in studio on the Sporty TV set this week, that “the energy in the team is very very positive right now.” One of the panelists said, “so, isn’t it always?”.
No. The atmosphere in trainings this year compared to last year is night and day.
Jose Mourinho deserves a lot of credit for this. This current version of Mourinho is closer to the one we had hoped for: he’s started to make big decisions and has formed a brotherhood. We were worried we wouldn’t get the correct version of Mourinho, and for a couple months, we didn’t — but now we’ve got him. I think he ultimately may have played his cards right, even though it was a painful process: Give people a chance, give it two months, prove to everyone that the old ways don’t work, and now that it’s proven, get to work before it’s too late.
If you ask me right now, Barcelona are clear favourites, and there is good reason for that. But I will say I have more hope now than I did one week ago.
But just to make it clear I’m not getting carried away, I’ve laid out as many reasons to be worried as I have for reasons to be hopeful.
Below are two reasons to have hope for Clasico, as well as two reasons to be concerned.
Also, is the importance of this game overblown? Absolutely not. If Barcelona win, La Liga is done. There is no statistical precedence for coming back from a nine-point deficit. Win, and you have a real chance with Barcelona’s scheduling getting more difficult next month. At the very least, you have to avoid a loss.
Reason for hope: Mourinho has flipped a page
In the last two-and-a-half games, we haven’t seen Fede Valverde in midfield once. Instead, he’s been unchained to the right where he’s taking souls as a two-way force.
Mourinho has also gradually decreased Vinicius’s influence, little-by-little, game-to-game. On the flip-side, Yan Diomande’s influence continues to grow — and any chance there was Vinicius would start this game has been taken away by default due to suspension.
That all opens up room for Mbappe, Diomande, Güler, Bellingham, and Valverde to all play together, with the final two spots going to two of Bernardo, Camavinga, Tchouameni. It looks like Mourinho might land on Tchouameni-Camavinga, which concerns me (more later), but it’s not the worst possible outcome given Güler and Bellingham will drop / tuck narrow on defense to help cut off space and escape pressure.
Reason for concern: Physical and mental pressure
As we’ve already established, losing this game would be catastrophic. That on its own puts massive pressure on the team. Courtois’s potential absence further compounds the test because he alone is capable of keeping you in this game.
There’s also the fact that you are going up against at team who will press you relentlessly, which is both a physical and mental test.
It’s physical for obvious reasons; it’s mental because the more you turn the ball over, the more you lose momentum and allow Barcelona and its fans to take a stranglehold on this game and dominate it both tactically and psychologically.
This is where there will be a lot of onus on both Tchouameni and Camavinga to step up and raise their level. The ball will often land at their feet if they win possession, and it will be their first touch or pass out of pressure that will dictate whether or not Real Madrid can put together a transition attack.
Mourinho will have to find the balance between digging into his nature of valuing defense over control, vs losing all momentum. Barcelona will not be as forgiving as Roma to let you back into the game if you make second half changes because you invited too much pressure in the first half.
I don’t think that means Mourinho will have to press, but it does mean surprising Barcelona by pressing in certain moments, like on goal-kicks and / or strategic waves of counter-pressing. Barcelona don’t like the discomfort of facing a man-to-man high press (Xabi Alonso’s blue print in the first half of last season’s Clasico, or PSG this past week).
Of course, Real Madrid are not PSG, who have had an organized pressing system for years, but, perhaps surprisingly, Real Madrid cause the most turnovers in La Liga (66), per Opta. Of those 66, 33 have resulted in chances, and only two resulted in goals.
Be. Clinical.
Reason for hope: In form attackers vs Barcelona’s high line
Barcelona don’t have their full strength defense available. Hansi Flick may go for Xavi Espart and Cancelo as his wing backs, or shift Cancelo to the right and put Alejandro on the left. Eric Garcia and Jules Koundé are both out.
Either way, there will be room to exploit.
Taking advantage of Barcelona’s high line is often easier said than done. Their scheme hoodwinks you into thinking you have space to exploit — but their counter-press is so good, and if all else fails, Joan Martinez is very good at sweeping up breaks.
Still, there is no excuse not to generate enough chances to win this game when you have Mbappe, Diomande, Bellingham, Güler, and Valverde surging in attack.
The recipe to beat Barcelona is always there: A pass down the wing (Diomande), while the striker (Mbappe), makes the third-man run centrally to receive a pass.
Being clinic is vital. Chances will come.
Reason for concern: wing match-ups
It’s easy to isolate this to ‘Marc Cucurella vs Lamine Yamal’, but match-ups go beyond that. Yes, Cucurella vs Lamine is concerning because of Cucurella’s form this season, but there needs to be recognition that this is not just a one-vs-one battle. Against Atletico, Cucurella was virtually alone vs both Simeone and Kang-in Lee. This is where Diomande and Tchouameni need to provide better coverage.
Even when they do, Barcelona are so fluid off the the ball and Lamine is such a great creator that he can find the open man. This is why playing Barcelona can be so challenging. Everyone needs to hit their defensive assignments, in sync, over and over again.
Of course, on the opposite side, Valverde will need to get the better of Anthony Gordon.
Güler and Bellingham won’t win the possession battle, but they can with the transition battle.
If those battles are won and Diomande and Mbappe can be clinical in attack, there’s no reason Real Madrid can’t win this game despite no one believing they can.
