The minute both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves were diagnosed with their respective grade-two muscle injuries, the Lakers immediately became the team every other Western Conference playoff entrant wanted to face.
JJ Redick said as much at the end of the regular season and no amount of medical treatment – whether here or in Spain – Luka and Austin receive is going to change that.
The Lakers opening as huge underdogs to the Rockets in their first round series, then, is no surprise. Houston may not be
the powerhouse, inner-circle contending team many thought they could be before the season started, but they’re a very good outfit with an established identity, a superstar shot-maker and enough young and athletic talent across their roster to push even a fully healthy Lakers team.
That this Lakers team is nowhere near fully healthy makes the pre-series odds understandable. But just because we can make sense of Houston’s position doesn’t make the outcome already determined. It would be a steep hill to climb, but winning isn’t out of the question. The path is just narrower than what JJ Redick and his players would like.
But as Redick said himself, this season’s Lakers have been pretty good at finding the path needed for the different iterations of their roster this season. So, with that, here are four things the Lakers need to go their way for them to not only hang tough with Houston, but to beat them outright.
1. Win the turnover battle
Redick has made a point of emphasizing the Lakers’ need to take care of the ball and limit their own turnovers. This makes sense considering Houston is one of the better teams in the league at generating more shots than their opponents, so keeping their own miscues to a minimum could help the Lakers to bridge that gap in good old field goals attempted.
But beyond limiting their own turnovers, the Lakers need to force the Rockets into mistakes of their own.
Without a traditional point guard in their starting lineup and only Reed Shepherd as a primary ball handler in their main rotation, Houston can be susceptible to pressure at the point of attack when the heat is turned up. Further, collectively, their rotation wings and off-ball players are more limited when it comes to the sort of ball skills that often serve as the connecting element between their best shot creators and those off ball finishers — particularly when defenses execute their rotations well and force the Rockets into making quick and accurate reads.
If the Lakers can simultaneously pressure the ball to force the action away from Houston’s best shot creators — i.e. Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün — and then execute their rotations with pace and accuracy, they can hopefully force players like Tari Eason, Josh Okogie, Jabari Smith Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate into making quick reads and plays on the move. And while these players aren’t just going to cough the ball up, they can be forced into making the wrong play, which can help the Lakers turn defense into offense.
And even before the ball is moved onto the role players, the Lakers must test the playmaking and ball security of Houston’s best players. Both Durant and Şengün can outright give the ball away when playing in a crowd and the Lakers would be wise to throw multiple looks — and defenders — at both to force them into making the right reads over and over again. Because if they can’t, or if their consistency or shot-making falters even just a little, the Lakers can tilt the game in their favor.
2. Make substantially more threes than Houston
By any metric, the Lakers aren’t much better of a 3-point shooting team than the Rockets, if at all. For the season, the Lakers and Rockets ranked 22nd and 25th in made threes per game, respectively, while Houston had the slight edge — 36.4% to 35.9% — on 3-point field goal percentage.
Considering the Lakers are now without Luka and Austin, it feels like a stretch to ask the Lakers to even keep pace from behind the arc, much less outdo them, but that’s exactly what needs to happen. Houston is going to win in other margin areas — namely on the backboards and, particularly, in second chance points. The Lakers, then, are going to need to win a part of the game where it’s known Houston is unlikely to thrive.
Which means finding a way to can more baskets from deep.
Getting there won’t be easy without the collective volume and off-the-dribble shot creation Dončić and Reaves normally provide. But if LeBron can continue his uptick on both attempts and accuracy, and the Lakers can find ways to better involve both Rui and Kennard to also up their volume, the team has a chance to make up some of what’s been lost.
Further, and maybe more important, they’ll need at least one of Marcus Smart or Jake LaRavia to get into a rhythm from deep if not for the entire series, then at least for a game or two. Both have shown they’re capable of knocking down shots this season, but both players’ jumpers are also erratic enough that it’s impossible to rely on them coming through in this way.
That said, if one or both can catch a heater at any point during the series, it would go a long way towards the Lakers outpacing Houston in a meaningful enough way that it could turn a game (or more) in their direction.
3. Don’t get bludgeoned on the backboards
Let’s be real — the Lakers aren’t going to win the rebounding battle against the Rockets. Houston is a better rebounding team on both sides of the ball to such a degree that it’s just too big an ask for the Lakers to be better than them at this specific thing over the course of the series.
That said, they need to try to keep it close.
If Houston is allowed to crash the offensive glass with impunity and create second and third chances on possessions, the Lakers simply will not be able to keep pace on shot attempts and they’ll lose. The Lakers don’t have enough offensive talent to make up for a major discrepancy in simple shots on goal, so they simply have to find a way to ensure the Rockets don’t overwhelm them here.
Considering the Lakers are likely going to need to gamble on defense by trapping, being more aggressive at the point of attack, and even playing some zone, it won’t be easy to find a body and box out. Houston will certainly get some chances to have crashers, from the corners and from above the break, run free at the rim, but the Lakers must do their best to limit this as much as they can by finding a Rocket, being physical, hitting first and finishing plays.
There are no shortcuts or magic elixirs here. There’s a reason Redick said much of the team’s first practice in preparation for this series was spent on rebounding drills, and their next practice highlighted the number of crashers the Rockets have in their rotation.
The Lakers need to be mentally prepared for how relentlessly Houston will attack the glass and physically ready to respond to the challenge of boxing out and chasing down the ball.
If they can do it well enough to just keep the margins close, they’ll set themselves up well to survive and advance. If they don’t, well, all they need to do is listen to their head coach to know the outcome.
4. Win at role player roulette
If the Lakers are to win this series, it’s a given that LeBron will need to be amazing. Nearly as important, I think, will be Deandre Ayton having a certain amount of success in his direct matchup with Şengün. Ayton doesn’t need to match Şengün stat for stat, but I think if he’s 80-90% as productive as him, it will tilt the series.
That said, even if you were to guarantee me that LeBron and Ayton would essentially cancel out Durant and Şengün, I would tell you that the Lakers will still need at least one, and probably two, role players to pop every game and outshine their Rockets counterparts.
It doesn’t need to be the same player(s) every game — though I’d argue Rui and Kennard are the most ideal candidates because of their shooting — but someone needs to outpace their expected production in a meaningful way to help lift the team overall.
Again, if I could nominate someone, it would be Rui and/or Kennard simply because their value as shooters add a much-needed dimension to the Lakers’ overall offensive attack. But if LaRavia could have a repeat performance of his “who is number 12?” game vs. the Wolves or if Smart could have one of those nights where he makes half a dozen threes, it could single-handedly swing a game, and at the same time, the series as a whole.
To be clear, these sorts of contributions don’t have to be limited to shot making. An especially disruptive night from Jarred Vanderbilt, where he’s getting deflections, forcing turnovers, and hitting the glass hard, can be particularly impactful. Similarly, if Jaxson Hayes can race the floor, create easy baskets in transition and hold up on the glass on both ends, he too can tug-o-war the rope more in the Lakers’ direction.
But, the role players, as a group, have to find a way to make a push over the course of the series with one or two of them bursting through with a standout performance that can uplift the team in a way that wasn’t necessarily expected.
To be clear, the Lakers can win a game without one or more of these things happening. A brilliant LeBron performance, a particularly sloppy or disengaged Rockets showing, or a combined hot shooting night from a Lakers team that just has it going that night can power a victory in any single game.
But, if the Lakers want to advance to the second round, I do believe they will need to hit on most of these over the course of the series.
This is why they’re underdogs. It’s a tall task, for sure. But, the path does exist. The Lakers just need to find a way to it.
You can follow Darius on BlueSky at @forumbluegold and find more of his Lakers coverage on the Laker Film Room Podcast.
