Good news. Bad news.
For every series preview, there is good news and there is bad news.
The good news is that the Dutch easily qualified for the next round. Ah, wait. That is good news, but not related to this series.
Let me try again: the good news is that the Diamondbacks just had an extra day off. I don’t think there is much more good news about the Diamondbacks, but if you have some, throw it in the comments.
The bad news is that Gallen’s start has now been bumped to the first match of this series and that this series has Arizona
playing against Tampa Bay Rays, who are safely in second place in the AL East, two games behind the Yankees, and well ahead of many suitors in the AL Wild Card race, most of them below .500.
The shrug news is that the Diamondbacks have activated Max Kepler. Max might have seen his Germany lose against Ecuador and I think that is freaking funny. Germany losing is good news for Dutch people.
The Rays are at a 45-33 record, and are a bit retro with that record, because the past few season they were struggling with two sub .500 seasons after 5 consecutive play-off performances.
As usual, their current .577 W-L % is achieved with hitters that won’t ring a bell, though in their pitching corps they have turned to a more veteran lineup: their 30.8 years average of the pitchers is the highest in the entire franchise history. That isn’t really strange, because with Steven Matz (Boston) and Nick Martinez (Reds) they signed two 35-year old veterans in the off-season to boost the starting pitching. Veteran outfielders Cedric Mullins (Mets) and Jake Fraley (Atlanta) joined their batting lineup.
You’d wonder if those refreshments are really the cause for their turnaround and that probably isn’t the case. Nick Martinez might be the exception, because he has been pitching very well for the Rays, but Matz was miserable (6.28) before heading to the IL, while Fraley (90 OPS+) was as unimpressive as you might expect. Mullins’ bat is pretty much worthless as well nowadays, and he isn’t that old at all.
Combine that with 6 other pitchers on the IL (amongst them former Dodger Ryan Pepiot) and you have to guess what has happened in Tampa Bay.
Rays went 11-17 in the last month. Ouch.
Tampa Bay’s offence is top 10 in the league but with a weak American League this year, third in the AL, with only Yankees and Athletics ahead of them. Almost the entire offence is carried by just 3 men: Yandy Diaz’s 157 WRC+ (7th in the league), Junior Caminero’s 145 WRC+ (16th in the league) and Jonathan Aranda’s 130 WRC+ (31st in the league). Outfielder Jonny DeLuca and utility guy Ryan Vilade are the only other players with an OPS+ above 100.
On the pitching side, their starting rotation is 7th in the league, when looking at fWAR. Nick Martinez and Drew Rasmussen both have ERA’s below 3, while Shane McClanahan (he is finally back) and Griffin Jax are pitching in the low 3 ERA. Their bullpen is not great, but with excellent starting pitching, a good closer (who is 31-year old Bryan Baker with a 2.01 ERA and 20 saves), and a few other fine relievers, it is enough to always fight for a win.
There always is a however, though.
When the Rays beat the New York Yankees on May 22, they were 19 games over .500 and 5.5 games over the Yankees, comfortably sitting on top of the AL East and the AL in general. Since then they have gone 11-17, winning just 3 series. If you look at the Tampa Bay Rays over that timespan, well, they drop all down to spot number 21, relying entirely on those former 3 players that were mentioned.
So what is the strategy here? As long as Diaz, Caminero and Aranda’s bats can be silenced, the Diamondbacks might stand a chance. Maybe the Rays aren’t that good after all. Tampa Bay is 13-17 in Interleague matches this year.
Tampa Bay won the series with the Diamondbacks the past two seasons and own us with a solid 20-11 lifetime record. Time to change that a bit.
Matchups.
Game #1 Fri 06/26 4:10 PM MST, Zac Gallen (ARI) vs Nick Martinez (TBR).
- Zac Gallen. 16 GS, 79.2 IP, 3 W-6 L, 6.10 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.63 WHIP, 52/25 K/BB. $16,199,618.
- Nick Martinez. 15 GS, 89.0 IP, 6 W-2 L, 2.73 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 55/17 K/BB. $9,000,000.
I pity the SnakePitter who is up to recap this Friday’s game, though is it possible for Zac Gallen to pitch to an ERA worse than his current 6.10 ERA? You’d say nay, but with Gallen you have no idea anymore. Good thing for Zac is that Tampa Bay aren’t really homerun hitters, so he might take that to his advantage. Gallen has faced Tampa Bay twice in his career, winning one and losing the other.
Nick Martinez is the man taking the mound for Tampa Bay. He came of a somewhat unimpressive year in Cincinatti and settled for a 1-year contract in Florida. He has found his groove again, being one of the better pitchers in the league at the moment, according to his ERA. Martinez pitched for the Reds against the Diamondbacks last season. It was one of his better performances that season, allowing just 1 run over 6 innings, taking the win. Obviously, as a Padre reliever he has seen Arizona more than once over the past seasons. Martinez has an excellent changeup, hardly walks a batter and keeps the hard contact limited. A tough nut to crack for Arizona in this first matchup.
Game #2 Sat 06/27 3:10 PM MST, Jose Cabrera (ARI) vs TBD (TBR).
- Jose Cabrera. 1 GS, 5.0 IP, 0 W-0 L, 0.00 ERA, 2.50 FIP, 0.60 WHIP, 3/0 K/BB. $412,929.
- TBD (opener / bullpen game).
The Rays don’t have a starter filed to start Saturday’s game and since Rasmussen is scheduled for Sunday (last time he was the starter after a game Martinez started), it probably means they will go with an opener. Last time they did that was on Thursday against Kansas, and they almost no-hit the Royals. The first two pitchers used in that game are unlikely to appear here, so it will be interesting to find out who will take the mound for the Rays.
Jose Cabrera will expand on his first adventure in the major leagues. After pitching 5 scoreless against the Twins, the batting lineup in the form of the three Rayketeers will be a bigger test for the young Dominican.
Game #3 Sun 06/28 10:40 AM MST, Merrill Kelly (ARI) vs Drew Rasmussen (TBR).
- Merrill Kelly. 13 GS, 75.2 IP, 5 W-7 L, 5.71 ERA, 5.83 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB. $18,000,000.
- Drew Rasmussen. 15 GS, 86.0 IP, 6 W-4 L, 2.62 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 0.88 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB. $5,750,000.
Drew Rasmussen has been excellent for the Rays ever since joining the team in 2021. The shame is that he was injured for most of 2023 and 2024, otherwise he might have been one of the most coveted pitchers. 2025 was his first full season since 2022 and Rasmussen immediately was selected for the All Star game and got some Cy Young votes. He isn’t taking gas of the pedal in 2026 either, which is bad news for the Diamondbacks lineup. Last year though, the Diamondbacks took 4 runs in 5 innings when we met him in Phoenix, and he had to settle for a no-decision.
Kelly, well, if he keeps the runs limited to 3, maybe we stand a chance.
