The Matchup: The New Jersey Devils (9-3-0) at the Anaheim Ducks (6-3-1)
The Time: 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM local)
The Broadcast: TV — MSGSN, Radio — Devils Hockey Network
Better Effort
The New Jersey Devils had most breaks
go their way last night against the Los Angeles Kings. Jacob Markstrom was excellent, keeping the Kings to one goal as the Devils took the 4-1 win. The Kings doubled their shots at 44 to 22, forcing Markstrom to earn that victory. Do the Devils want to play the same game tonight with Anaheim? I would not think so. The one thing that I do not think was really their fault that did not go their way last night was the penalties. The officials overlooked a couple obvious too many men situations for Los Angeles, contributing to some extended defensive shifts for the Devils, while New Jersey was called for four total penalties during the game. To date, the Devils are tied for the second-least power play opportunities in the league, tied with Pittsburgh at 31 and ahead of just the Columbus Blue Jackets with 26. They have had to kill 43 penalties, though, and the league average for both at the moment is 39. I am not going to be nice to referees and pretend this disparity reflects the reality of infractions on the ice.
But the Devils have to deal with it, or maybe they just don’t embellish enough to get calls in today’s NHL. Some better possession numbers might help them draw calls, too, but the lack of calls coming their way are also hurting their chances to gain and sustain possession. The Ducks are a rather average group on special teams, as they have eight goals on 40 power play opportunities and seven goals against in 33 penalty killing situations. They have scored two shorthanded goals and have allowed none. The Devils, of course, lead the league with four shorthanded goals, which brings their penalty killing differential to just -2 (tied with the Jets for best in the league) on 43 penalties. Their power play percentage is also tied with the Penguins for second in the league behind the Oilers.
The Ducks
The Anaheim Ducks have gotten very lucky at even strength this season. Per Natural Stat Trick, they have good possession numbers at a 50.60 CF%, but they are a bit worse at getting their shots on goal, with a 230-246 shot disparity through 10 games. They have only been able to outshoot teams because of their penalty differential. Still, they are also performing well above their expected goal differential at even strength of 21.76-27.13 (44.51 xGF%), with a real differential of 22-23 at five-on-five. So far, they are also 4-2-0 against Eastern Conference teams, escaping with these wins despite a 36.25 xGF% at five-on-five and a 40.42 xGF% in all situations.
The big task for today is shutting down their top lines. Cutter Gauthier (six goals, 10 points), Mason McTavish (eight points), and Bennett Sennecke (five points) have tallied the most (89:37) minutes together, rolling with a 59.90 CF% and 4-2 goal differential. However, Leo Carlsson (five goals, 15 points) and Troy Terry (five goals, 13 points) lead their team in point production, and I expect them to be on a line with Chris Kreider. That line has only broken even in goals at even strength, but they have dominated possession with a 61.02 CF% through 28:51 together. Kreider, who is returning from a bout of hand, foot, and mouth disease, is having an excellent start to his season alongside Jacob Trouba. Both have six points, though Kreider has only played six out of 10 games, as he has scored five goals already, compared to the 22 goals he had for the Rangers last season. Jacob Trouba, meanwhile, has already matched his Rangers production from last year in 14 fewer games while playing much better defense in bigger minutes. He might be getting a bit lucky with his on-ice goal differential of 11-4 with his 50.73 xGF%, but the Ducks play their best hockey with Trouba on the ice.
The Devils will likely only have to deal with one big-hitting former Metropolitan Division right-handed defenseman tonight, though. Radko Gudas, Captain of the Ducks and regular cause of Devils injuries on illegal hits, has missed three games with a lower-body injury. The coach of the Ducks said that Gudas should be out for about a week from yesterday, alongside Mikael Granlund (lower-body) and Ryan Strome (upper-body). Granlund has only missed two games so far, but he already had eight points in eight games. Meanwhile, Strome has yet to play a game this season. Those injuries should make it easier for the Devils to win their matchups in the bottom six tonight, as the Ducks are a bit of a two-line show.
Key to the Game
Tonight is the night the Devils’ fourth line needs to get going. They are going against a rather poor fourth-line center in Jansen Harkins, who throws a lot of hits but had a 10.00 CF% and 3.19 xGF% in his season debut. He should be on a line with Frank Vatrano, who is having a rotten start to the season with one point and a 28.88 xGF%. Meanwhile, the third line should not be outmatched by the Ryan Poehling-led group. The Devils are well-used to Poehling’s mediocrity, and he is on a line with an increasingly washed up Alex Killorn and a more promising young Nikita Nesterenko, who has four points in eight games. Still, Poehling’s third lines have not fared very well in terms of possession or expected goals, and running a guy like Arseny Gritsyuk loose against a poor bottom six should mean opportunities for the Devils to score. While the lines were pretty fluid last night (I saw a lot of mixtures down the stretch), I think the Devils should go with a look like this:
Noesen-Hughes-Bratt
Meier-Hischier-Brown (if available)
Cotter-Mercer-Gritsyuk
Palat-Glendening-Halonen
Unfortunately, neither of the Palat-Hischier-Gritsyuk or Meier-Hischier-Mercer lines really created any offense last night, so I think more tinkering is needed there. With Juho Lammikko not playing much towards the end of the game, I do not think he should be centering the third line again tonight. With Brian Halonen earning his way to stay in the lineup with his goal, it would be nice to see him get a game with more of an offensive focus on his line. Palat, who finds himself suddenly without a home on Jack’s line (especially with Noesen looking consistently in the right spots there last night), needs to reinvent himself and work some scoring chances in the bottom six: he should have opportunities if he plays there against Anaheim’s weak bottom six tonight.
If Brown misses a second straight game, I would just recommend sliding the right wings up a line and dressing Lammikko on the fourth. Lammikko has not shown enough (he had a 12.31 xGF% last night in 6:55 at five-on-five) to play on the third line, and he did not even win draws in the faceoff dot. In order to keep Hischier and Hughes fresh enough for the end of the game today, they will need Dawson Mercer to play center and turn in good shifts at even strength. Maybe if they need to shorten the bench in the third, Mercer can move back to wing, but they need his minutes at center right now.
The Devils will have Jake Allen (5-1-0, .906 SV%, 2.39 GAA) starting tonight, while the Ducks should have Lukas Dostal (4-3-1, .909 SV%, 2.74 GAA) in net. If Dostal gets a rare rest, Petr Mrazek (2-0-0, .831 SV%, 5.52 GAA) is Anaheim’s backup. Mrazek last played on October 23, while Dostal has played three in a row (October 25, 28, and 31). With the Ducks on a homestand, next playing Florida on Tuesday, I expect to see Dostal.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of tonight’s game? Will the Devils make any changes to their forward lines? Will Cholowski play again tonight, or is tonight a good time to use Seamus Casey? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
