Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, August 28 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ACC Network
- Location: Carter-Finley Stadium — Raleigh, NC
- Spread: NC State (-11.5)
- Over/under: 60.5
- All-time series: NC State leads, 19-14
- Last meeting: East Carolina 26, NC State 21 — December 28, 2024 (Military Bowl)
- Current streak: East Carolina, 1 (2024)
Setting the scene
Whether the fanbases want to admit it or not, this matchup fits all the definitions of a rivalry. And to add more intrigue, it’s a rivalry with bad blood.
There has been no shortage of drama when viewing on-the-field and off-the-field theatrics between these two in-state but out-of-conference opponents. The teams already met quite frequently in non-conference play, with East Carolina owning the early 2010s and NC State taking over in the late 2010s. But no meeting held more weight and memorability
than the 2024 Military Bowl.
East Carolina appeared on the verge of squandering a two-touchdown lead in Annapolis. But a fateful and unexpected 3rd and 10 play-call changed everything. The Pirates fed longtime Rahjai Harris on an inside zone. From there, it was an all-out sprint to destiny. Harris flew down the sideline and cut upfield to dodge an NC State defender, completing an 86-yard dash to hand ECU a 26-21 advantage. From there, Dontavius Nash finished the work, sealing the Military Bowl with an interception.
The game was over, but the fight wasn’t. As the Pirates entered victory formation, the teams engaged in a late-shoving match, resulting in five NC State ejections and three ECU ejections.
Eight months later, the Wolfpack are plotting revenge and the Pirates aim to double down on the Military Bowl result, in what is certain to be a chippy, emotional Thursday night showdown.
East Carolina Pirates outlook
The Rolling Stones once used the lyric, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss,” and perhaps that’s the best way to describe East Carolina’s coaching situation. Blake Harrell is technically a first-year head coach, but he enters year one already equipped with a 5-1 coaching record in purple and gold. ECU fired former head coach Mike Houston after seven games last year and Harrell took over as interim. That 5-1 stint, including the Military Bowl win, secured the former defensive coordinator a promotion in Greenville, and now he’s eager to sustain his success now that the interim tag is scrapped.
Harrell’s first full season in East Carolina should be characterized by a potent offense. ECU returns quarterback Katin Houser, who took over the starting role in the middle of 2024 to help turn a 3-4 start into an 8-5 finish. The former Michigan State starter showcased elite arm talent with the Pirates, firing for 300+ yards twice and delivering 5+ touchdowns twice — reaching 2,006 yards and 18 touchdowns through the air despite only seven starts. Although not the defining feature of his game, Houser also offered some mobility in the Military Bowl with a career-high 84 rushing yards and two touchdowns, proving a degree of versatility.
But what Houser and the Pirates must eradicate are turnovers. East Carolina threw an FBS-high 23 interceptions in 2024 (nobody else had more than 17) and Houser was responsible for 11, so ball security could maximize an already-great offense. ECU ranked 24th nationally in yards per game last season in spite of a concerning interception total, and that ranking could amplify if mistakes are improved upon.
The Pirates lose star tailback Rahjai Harris, but the run game should remain potent. The team landed not one, not two, but three running backs on the Doak Walker Award preseason watchlist so Marlon Gunn Jr., London Montgomery, and Houston transfer Parker Jenkins could form an effective rotation in this opener before the Pirates settle on the hot hand. All three have rushed for 340+ in a season and boast ample experience, providing strong run support to Houser and Co.
ECU’s skill position depth extends to the wide receiver position where the Smiths — Anthony Smith and Yannick Smith — are the names to watch. Anthony is a bona fide deep threat, averaging 20.2 yards per reception last year — the best average in the FBS for receivers with at least 38 receptions. He ranked first on the team with 799 and likely remains Houser’s top option again in 2025. Meanwhile, Yannick could step into a No. 2 role after logging 434 yards (fourth on the roster) on 25 receptions last year. The group also added several transfers looking to expand their impact, including Jaquaize Pettaway (Oklahoma), Tyler Johnson (Penn State), and Payton Mangrum (South Carolina).
The Pirates haven’t been known for their defense much lately, finishing 79th or below every year since 2016, except for 2023. Last year’s unit ranked 100th in yards allowed per game, struggling rather equally against the run and pass. Still, there were elements the defense could hang its hat on such as 22 takeaways (tied for 27th in FBS) and a red zone defense which only allowed points on 74.5% of possessions (13th in FBS).
ECU could utilize more quarterback pressure and the Pirates will rely on returning edge rushers Ryheem Craig and J.D. Lampley, as well as Sam Houston transfer Kendrick DuJour, to spearhead the pass rush. No player attained more than 4.0 sacks last year, and that will be one of the focal points of the defense, as Josh Aldridge slides into Harrell’s former role as defensive coordinator.
Despite the lack of sacks, ECU still finished 14th nationally in tackles for loss per game. That effort was primarily linebacker-led, but the Pirates are replacing some of their top-end talent in Zakye Barker (86 tackles, 12 TFL) and Michael Edwards III (75 tackles, 9 TFL), thrusting incumbents backups like Dameon Wilson and DJ Johnson Jr. into larger roles.
The secondary loses a day two NFL Draft selection in Shavon Revel, although Revel missed the majority of 2024 due to an ACL tear anyway. Still, this might be the most established group on ECU’s defense. Ja’Marley Riddle is team’s returning leader in tackles from the safety spot and he tied for the team-lead with three picks last fall. Former starting safety Teagan Wilk also rejoins the purple and gold as a boomerang transfer from Houston, totaling 34 games and 13 starts as a Pirate from 2020-23. But the newcomer to watch in the defensive backfield is cornerback Jordy Lowery. An FCS All-American at Western Carolina, Jordy Lowery brings his ballhawking talents to Greenville after intercepting six passes and breaking up another eight in 2024.
NC State Wolfpack outlook
Only five current FBS coaches have been with their programs than Dave Doeren. The NC State head coach enters year 13 at the helm, but year 12 featured quite a rarity in his tenure. For the third time overall and first time since 2019, Doeren’s Wolfpack finished below .500. NC State was less than two minutes away from victory over East Carolina at the Military Bowl, and what better way is there to avenge the heartbreaking defeat than in Week 1 of the following season.
Where NC State struggled in the Military Bowl — and throughout all of the 2024 season — was starting slow. The Wolfpack were a -58 in first quarters last year, failing to score a touchdown in the opening frame eight times. However, the offense should gain plenty more confidence in 2025 with CJ Bailey shedding true freshman status as he returns for his second year as a starter. Bailey is roughly 20 pounds heavier entering his sophomore season, coming off a campaign that featured 2,413 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on a 64.9 completion percentage. Although taking a litany of sacks — including as many as six in one game — limited his rushing numbers, Bailey also provides solid mobility, peaking at 83 rushing yards and three touchdowns in a thriller vs. Georgia Tech last November.
The quarterback remains surrounded with similar skill position talent, retaining his top rusher and top two receivers. Hollywood Smothers returns to the backfield after producing 571 yards and six touchdowns on a 6.4 average. Wolfpack faithful would have liked to see him receive more touches, and that wish will likely be granted in 2025 considering the lack of veteran depth behind him. However, freshmen such as Jayden Scott (redshirt) and Deandre Desinor (true) could be newer faces in the mix as NC State’s new No. 2 option.
The only NC State receiver to eclipse 500 yards in 2024 was tight end Justin Joly, who gained 661 yards on 43 catches. The All-ACC snub returns to the lineup and could present a matchup issue for linebackers and safeties alike with his 6’3”, 251 frame fueled by strength and pure athleticism. NC State’s leading wide receiver Noah Rogers also returns to the fold after logging 478 yards in his first season after transferring from Ohio State. The 2024 receptions leader KC Concepcion will be a difficult replacement, and one of the Wolfpack’s greatest question marks revolves around their receiver depth. Wesley Grimes and Terrell Anderson are among the incumbent players hoping this is a non-issue as they work with Bailey for the second-straight year.
One uncharacteristic feature about the 2024 Wolfpack compared to other Doeren-era teams was the offense was stronger than the defense. After three consecutive years of exhibiting top 25 scoring defenses, NC State fell to 103rd in the category last year with recurring struggles against both the air and ground.
The 2025 Wolfpack need to restock after returning just one of their top six tacklers. Fortunately that returning presence is leading tackler Sean Brown. The versatile outside linebacker registered 96 tackles and nine tackles for loss while playing a significant hand in the turnover battle with three fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles. Brown should act as the primary run-stopper against ECU’s rotating backfield after recording 10+ tackles four times a year ago.
NC State’s defensive strength should be this linebacking corps led by Brown and supported by Caden Fordham (48 tackles, 4 TFL) and a litany of experienced transfers. Among those newcomers are Tra Thomas (Temple), Kenny Soares Jr. (Northwestern), and Cian Slone (Utah State), who all produced 20+ tackles in each of the last two seasons. Slone is a much-needed cog to spark the pass rush after the departure of All-ACC defensive end Davin Vann. The outside linebacker totaled 7.5 sacks and five QB hurries in 2024 at Utah State, and he’ll join forces with defensive end Travali Price (3.5 sacks, 9 TFL) in effort to take down Houser.
The most important position group for NC State in this opener is the secondary, pitted against a top 30 passing attack from 2024. The team returns just two interceptions of production from 2024, both belonging to cornerback Devon Marshall, who ranked second on the unit in pass breakups with seven. Seasoned transfer talent such as American Conference corners Brian Nelson II (North Texas) and Jamel Johnson (Temple) help reload the group. Another key addition is former Georgia State safety JJ Johnson, a two-year starter that brings 107 career tackles to the table.
Prediction
It’s time for the next installment of a rivalry, transpiring just eight months after its most iconic matchup.
Emotions will be high. Sure, the coaches are doing everything in their power this week to prevent players from post-play shoving matches and silly unsportsmanlike conduct fouls, but this game will be susceptible to such moments.
Given this game’s status as an opener, expect a somewhat slow start from both offenses with missed throws and turnovers taking center stage in the first half. The offenses will eventually enter a groove, and from there, this is likely a back-and-forth matchup with several lead changes, similar to the last two meetings between the programs. The key determinant in this victory will be NC State’s linebacking corps, winning matchups against East Carolina’s offensive line to stall the run game and pressure the quarterback. Still, it will come down to a game-winning field goal, and NC State exacts revenge in walk-off fashion.
Prediction: NC State 23, East Carolina 21
