Despite a dramatic midseason battle for first, the NL East was fairly clear cut for most of last season.
At the end of May, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets were tied in a dead-heat, and the Miami Marlins, Atlanta Braves, and Washington Nationals had all started a downward trend out of contention. By the end of July, the Phillies’ and Mets’ fortunes began to split. The teams were within a half game of each other on August 1st, but the Phillies pulled away and never looked back, finishing
in first place, 12 games ahead of the Mets.
Ultimately, the NL East yielded only one playoff team in 2025. The Braves hobbled out of the gate, plagued by injuries. The Mets imploded down the stretch, despite a stacked roster. But betting odds predict a brighter future for those two teams and the reigning division champs. Following the two-team race to the division crown for most of last season, things in the NL East could look a lot closer in 2026, with the potential for three teams to push for the postseason.
Atlanta Braves
2025 Record: 76-86 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 89.1 wins
Key Additions: Walt Weiss (Manager), Robert Suarez, Mike Yastrzemski, Ha-Seong Kim
Key Departures: Marcell Ozuna, Alek Manoah
The Braves were as consistent as it gets in divisional dominance and playoff berths, so last year was a rough break from the norm.
Coming into 2025, Atlanta was riding a seven-year postseason streak, winning the NL East in six of those seasons. Unfortunately, they were doomed by a challenging start that they couldn’t quite shake. They lost their first seven games to begin the year and were plagued by injuries and absences throughout: Ronald Acuña Jr. started his year on the IL; Jurickson Profar was suspended for the first 80 games; and a bulk of the rotation (Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenback, and Spencer Strider) was limited throughout the season.
The team’s focus for 2026 will be to get healthy and back on track. They’ll also have a new skipper at the helm looking to right the ship as Brian Snitker, the team’s manager for the last 10 seasons, was replaced by long-time bench coach (and Rockies’ legend) Walt Weiss. Weiss is hoping for fireworks from a “gauntlet” of a lineup, banking on Acuña Jr. and a slew of others to return to form offensively.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, breaking news this week forecasts another lineup hurdle. Profar will yet again be suspended for violating the league’s PED policy, this time for a full 162 games plus bans from the World Baseball Classic and the postseason.
The Braves will hope to avoid another avalanche of bad news. If they can weather the loss of Profar and ongoing injuries to the pitching core, they may have enough talent to make a run at the division.
Miami Marlins
2025 Record: 79-83 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 73.9 wins
Key Additions: Christopher Morel, Esteury Ruiz, Chris Paddack
Key Departures: Edward Cabrera, Eric Wagaman
Although Miami posted a losing season in 2025, it in many ways was a win. Last year was about carving out a path to the future holistically. The team lost GM Kim Ng at the end of the 2023 season and parted ways with manager Skip Schumaker after 2024. In all of the chaos, they went 62-100 in the 2024 campaign, so 2025’s 79 wins were a marked improvement.
That being said, there is little optimism that the Marlins will make a similar jump or seriously compete this season.
The Fish didn’t make a big splash in the offseason, sticking with a handful of lateral moves. With that, they retain a roster very similar to last year’s and are one of just four teams with zero players on ESPN’s Top 100 list. They were right around or under the league average in a number of key batting and pitching stats, so the lack of an influx of talent doesn’t inspire confidence in a win increase. Rather, they will rely on youth and upside, building towards long-term stability.
New York Mets
2025 Record: 83-79 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 89.0 wins
Key Additions: Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco
Key Departures: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Starling Marte, Cedric Mullins
There’s a new look in Queens as the Mets have retooled while still maintaining high expectations.
The Mets pushed all of their chips in (figuratively and financially) when signing Juan Soto for $765 million over 15 years heading into 2025. Soto is a top-5, MVP-caliber player, so pairing him with a core of Alonso, Nimmo, and Lindor should have been a recipe for success.
Things were going well in the Big Apple… until they weren’t.
Despite rocketing out to 45 wins and a 5.5 game lead on the division, things fell apart as the season went on. New York would finish 13 games behind Philadelphia in the division, while losing out to the Cincinnati Reds for a Wild Card spot.
The Mets will look to find a path into the postseason with a brand new core. In addition to retooling their roster, they’ve revamped their coaching staff with a slew of changes in key positions. Fortunately, it’s a talent-out, talent-in situation, and the team shouldn’t lose much steam despite a sporting different look. The addition of a number of big names should allow the team to pick up where they left off and try their hand at competing for the NL pennant.
Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Record: 96-66 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 85.6 wins
Key Additions: Adolis Garcia, Brad Keller
Key Departures: Nick Castellanos, Harrison Bader, Walker Buehler
As the reigning division champs, the Phillies’ offseason was less defined by sweeping change and more by consistency. They feel they have what it takes to strike while their window of contention is firmly open.
Despite losing a good bat (and questionable clubhouse presence) in Castellanos, they re-signed both Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto to run things back with the same cast of characters that locked up the 2-seed in the last playoff field
Schwarber will lead the way in batting after leading the NL in homers and RBI. The Fighting Phils finished second in the league in hits, third in batting average, fourth in OPS. They weren’t too shabby on the mound either, finishing top-10 in ERA, top-3 in saves, and first overall in FIP.
A well-balanced attack on both sides of the ball with little roster turnover should position Philadelphia at the top of both the East and the league.
Washington Nationals
2025 Record: 66-96 | PECOTA 2026 Projection: 66.2 wins
Key Additions: Miles Mikolas, Harry Ford
Key Departures: MacKenzie Gore, Paul DeJong, Josh Bell
The Nats flirted with a 100-loss season in a year full of growing pains. But growing pains are to be expected with a youth movement and the Nats are fully leaning further into that this year, starting at the top. In the offseason, Washington hired 31-year-old Anirudh Kilambi as the new GM and 33-year-old Blake Butera as manager.
One of their primary roster acquisitions was 23-year-old catcher Harry Ford, adding a highly-touted prospect to the pipeline.
Continuing the trend throughout the roster, the team sent 2025 Opening Day starter MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers for prospects with the idea that young guns will get the bulk of starts in the year ahead, learning on the job. The pitching rotation is in desperate need of development, posting the league’s second highest ERA last year. They have a handful of pitchers climbing the ranks, but many of these prospects aren’t expected to join the big leagues until 2027, at the earliest.
For now, Washington will embrace “wait and see” mode.
Who do you think will win the NL East this year? Do you think the NL East will send multiple teams to the postseason? Let us know!
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