As a long-time Keider Montero enthusiast, I might have a little bias here, but there’s a pretty good argument that the Detroit Tigers are better off with him in their starting rotation. The 26-year-old Venezuelan has been with the Tigers for a decade, and we’ve watched him grow up in the system. Montero possesses those two most defining yet elusive traits of a major league starting pitcher. He’s durable and he throws a ton of strikes.
At the end of the season press conference, Scott Harris emphasized
that improving the Tigers bullpen was going to have to come from within, particularly via an “overflow” of starting pitching. That’s a concept that brings to mind the phrase “famous last words.” There also isn’t much choice but to strive for it, as many of the top bullpens around the game feature converted starters and various reclamation projects. It has to be at least part of the Tigers solution.
If the Tigers are serious about this, there really has to be a surplus of starting pitching. Right now, they have Framber Valdez, Jackson Jobe, Troy Melton, River Ryan, Reese Olson, Keider Montero, and, I expect Drew Anderson’s club option will be picked up. They have myriad other options to spot start, and possibly some help coming from the farm system as the year progresses. That’s pretty good. There are numerous talented but unproven pitchers in that mix, but Olson’s status is a big wild card and it’s not exactly an overwhelming group with arms to spare either.
If the Tigers are expecting to significantly upgrade a bullpen that was too often a disaster when it mattered most this offseason, they’re going to have to develop more options in the rotation, rather than just pursuing pure relievers. Then they may actually be able to count on some kind of surplus.
The basic case for converting Montero is that he had a 29.2 percent K-rate in relief, vs. a 15.6 percent K-rate as a starting pitcher. When he’s free to air out his fastball, he averages an extra tick and can sit 95-97 mph. His breaking stuff and change all play up as a result. As a starter, the unimpressive whiff rates on his slider, knuckle curve, and split-change mean there are more balls in play against him than a true frontline starter allows. The knuckle curve in particular is a bit baffling as on paper it’s a really nasty pitch with high spin and a lot of depth. He just hasn’t been able to make it a consistent weapon yet. The change is good when it’s right, but it’s just as inconsistent as the curve. While he’s done a nice job limiting hard contact, that’s a hard road to follow year after year. Eventually that much contact is going to bite you. As a reliever he should be able to punch out more hitters while continuing to pound the zone and get weak contact as well.
The case for keeping him in a starting role is even stronger, however. Montero’s best traits as a pitcher are his durability and strike throwing. He’s a little more efficient than the average starter these days, averaging 5.5 innings per start. The Tigers have other guys, like Troy Melton and River Ryan, who have more spectacular stuff when they’re going 100 percent. Neither has proven to be particularly durable, and that’s an understatement in Ryan’s case. Melton doesn’t strike out many more hitters than Montero does, either. Ryan has a better track record in that regard, but it still hasn’t been tested much at the major league level. Montero’s most outstanding quality is also the one that can only be taken advantage of in a starting role.
Take a look at Montero’s innings totals over the last six seasons, going back to his age 21 season. No injury history. Just consistent work and improvement.
2022: 103.2 innings
2023: 127.1 innings
2024: 146.2 innings
2025: 133.1 innings
2026: 159.0 innings
Overall, Montero posted a 3.48 ERA with a 3.98 FIP in 2026 and was worth 2.5 fWAR, and those good marks continue his three year trend of improvement, despite the fact that he’s never been a priority and has bounced back and forth between roles. He holds a total 3.81 ERA across 53 major league starts against a 5.00 ERA in 63 innings of relief work. Starting just seems to suit him better, and he does a nice job doing the extra things a starter needs to do well, like holding runners and fielding his position.
As talented as both Ryan and Melton are, one of them has barely pitched in three years, and the other threw 114.1 excellent innings but had elbow trouble in spring camp and forearm tightness and fatigue late in the season. Neither of them is necessarily going to be equipped to throw a full slate of starts next year. If Melton is really healthy, sure you want him to start. He doesn’t strike out many more batters in a starting role than Montero does, but it was his rookie season and he’s obviously got the talent and pitch mix to be a really good starting pitcher. Still, his 4.09 FIP is probably a better measure of where he’s at right now than his 2.75 ERA on the year.
The Tigers probably won’t make any pronouncements on the subject this offseason, and may well wait to decide on all this until the end of spring camp. For now, I hope they really have this question on the brain. Pitchers injuries often make the decisions in the end, but planning on Montero starting opens up some fresh options for a bullpen that seems unlikely to see a top arm added in trade or free agency this offseason.
Melton and Ryan may eventually both be starters, but right now their durability is in question, especially in Ryan’s case. Finally entrusting Montero to the job he’s best suited for on a full-time basis, and moving one of Ryan or Melton to the pen, or both if the Tigers add another short term starter, feels like the best way to use them all to their best advantage. Either could be converted back to starting later in the year if more relief options emerge, but in the meantime the Tigers would limit their innings totals to a degree.
The Tigers badly need some bigger, nastier arms in their bullpen. Using Montero to his strengths also adds at least one high velo arm with nasty breaking stuff to a relief corps that really needs the help if the Tigers are going to avoid wasting another season.
