That didn’t take long. In order to get into the NLDS, the Los Angeles Dodgers had to first get past the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card round. But to call the Reds a speed bump in the Dodgers’ path is
an insult to speed bumps. Instead, the Dodgers barely worked up a sweat in dismissing the Reds in two games.
So now, in order to get to the NLCS, the Phillies will have to get past a Dodgers team that won the World Series last year, is loaded with talent, and including those aforementioned Wild Card games, has won seven straight games. Sounds easy, right?
Well, nobody said that winning the World Series was going to be easy. As tough as it might be to believe, bad teams like the Rockies, Nationals, and (snickers) Mets didn’t make it into the playoffs. If you want to win a championship, you’re going to have to go through a good team or three, and it always seemed likely that they’d face the Dodgers at some point.
That point is now, so its time to get to know the Phillies’ NLDS opponent a little better.
How did they get here?
The Dodgers won the NL West with 93 wins. That would be considered a great season for most franchises, but its LA’s lowest win total (excluding the shortened 2020 season) since 2018. As mentioned, being forced to play in the Wild Card round didn’t prove much of a problem as they easily won both games.
The season series
The Phillies and Dodgers first meeting of the season came in April. The defending champs opened the season 8-0 and there was some hype that they might challenge the single season wins records (They didn’t). The undefeated record was ended thanks to Jesus Luzardo’s seven shutout innings in the series opener. The Dodgers rebounded to win the second game, but a rally against the Los Angeles bullpen (this would become a theme for them) allowed the Phillies to prevail in the series finale.
The teams didn’t see each other again until mid-September. With the Phillies on the verge of clinching a playoff bye, they took the first game in ten innings, and then a ninth inning home run by Rafael Marchan powered them to victory in the second.
The Phillies were shut out by Blake Snell in the finale, but that was enough to give them a 4-2 advantage for the season.
The playoff history
These teams are no stranger to each other in the postseason, having met five previous times.
- In 1977, the Phillies won the first game of the NLCS, but the Dodgers came back to win the next three.
- They met again in the 1978 NLCS, with the Dodgers once again winning three games to one.
- In 1983, the Wheeze Kids got their revenge thanks to two gems by Steve Carlton and outstanding hitting performances by Mike Schmidt and Gary Matthews, taking the NLCS three games to one.
- In 2008, Cole Hamels pitched two gems, and Matt Stairs sent one deep into the night as the Phillies captured the National League pennant en route to a World Series title.
- The following year’s NLCS isn’t as well remembered, but the Phillies offense pummeled Dodgers pitching throughout a 4-1 series win.
What are they good at?
Most pundits consider the Dodgers’ roster to be the most talent-laden in the majors. They led the National League in runs scored, thanks in part to a league leading 244 home runs. The lineup is full of threats like Shohei Ohtani (more on him later), Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Will Smith.
Their rotation is similarly strong with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Ohtani, and Blake Snell. It’s a far cry from past seasons when they had to sometimes piece together bullpen games for a few games in every playoff series.
But speaking of that bullpen…
Do they have any weaknesses?
If the Dodgers have a vulnerability, it’s their relief corps. Dodgers’ relievers had the fifth highest ERA in the NL and blew 25 saves. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies mounted multiple comebacks against the Dodgers’ bullpen when they played and that was not a unique situation.
The bullpen didn’t hurt them against the Reds because the offense kept the games from being close, and their starters went deep into games. But it seems like at some point, the Dodgers will need their relievers to come through in a tight, late game situation.
They may try to work around some of the problem by liberally using their starters in relief. They also think they might have found a new relief ace in Rori Sasaki. The Japanese import missed most of the season with a shoulder injury but has been dominant since his return. But its a small sample size, and history is littered with young relief aces who looked dominant right until they’re asked to protect a one run lead in a playoff game.
As for the Phillies’ bullpen
The Phillies don’t have the most settled relief situation either. Jhoan Duran is great when he’s locating his pitches, but if he’s not, all that velocity results in hard contact. Matt Strahm pitched well in the second half, but he was inconsistent for most of the season, and had a rough time of it in last year’s NLDs. And we’ll are what happens if David Robertson is forced to pitch on back-to-back days.
After that, I have no faith in Orion Kerkering. He’s had several opportunities to make himself a trusted late inning reliever, and he simply hasn’t done it. If the Phillies need a right handed relieved in a key spot I would consider using Aaron Nola over Kerkering.
No place like home
Having home field advantage in the series feels like a huge edge for the Phillies, as the Dodgers are just 2-7 at Citizens Bank Park over the last three seasons. And for the season, both of these teams were dominating at home, but merely a game over .500 on the road.
But merely getting to play three of the games at home is no guarantee of victory. While the Phillies have done very well at CBP overall this season, the aborted playoff runs of the last two years show that they are far from unbeatable there. And there’s tremendous pressure for them to win the first two games, as they don’t want the Dodgers to be able to close things out in Los Angeles.
The Big O
It is very difficult to argue that Shohei Ohtani isn’t the best player in baseball. Not only does he perennially lead the league in most offensive categories, but he’s also returned to pitching at a high level. The only time the Phillies have faced him as a pitcher was last month when he threw five no hit innings. But they’ve done well against Ohtani the batter.
He’s got a career OPS of .783 against the Phillies, which sounds pretty good, until you compare it to his numbers against everyone else. And it feels like most of his hits against them come in situations when the game hasn’t been close, while the Phillies have had the advantage in key spots.
Maybe that success has mostly been a fluke, and regression is coming the Phillies’ way. Maybe he was just setting up the Phillies to suffer a godlike run in this series. But if you’re planning on beating the Dodgers in a series, shutting down the best player in the game is a good place to start.
X-Men character of the series
Sunfire
Like Ohtani, Shiro Yoshido once left Japan to ply his trade in America. He had clashed with the X-Men before, but when Professor Xavier needed to form a new team in Giants sized X-Men, Sunfire was one of his recruits.
It makes sense why Xavier sought to have Sunfire on his team. He absorbs solar radiation and can use it to fly and shoot deadly beams of fire. However, he proved to be not much of a team player and after clashing with his new teammates, he promptly quit. He does pop up every now and then as sometimes friend/sometimes foe.
Not so top heavy anymore
For much of the season, the Phillies’ offense has gone the way Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper have gone. If at least two of those guys were hitting well, the entire lineup would hit well, and the Phillies would score a lot of runs. But if they weren’t, it seemed to have a trickle down effect on the rest of the team, and there were a lot of at bats where the names further down in the lineup appeared to be pressing.
That seemed to change toward the end of the season. The outfield has performed much better since the acquisition of Harrison Bader and the institution of platoons in the corners. And both Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott hit well down the stretch, giving the lineup more depth.
If the Phillies are going to win this series, they likely will need their biggest stars to do well. But the last couple of months have given me some hope that if the stars do have an off game, other players in the lineup might be able to pick up the slack.
Prediction
I really have no idea who will win. The Dodgers are talent laden and playing well. But they under achieved for most of the year, and aside from last year, the franchise has generally disappointed in the playoffs. And as mentioned, the bullpen feels like a blown save or two waiting to happen.
Meanwhile, the Phillies’ lineup has been more balanced this season, and they’ve got the starting pitching capable of slowing down the Dodgers’ offense. But would anyone truly be surprised if the offense starts slow and players begun to press? Or if we get another year of relievers coming up small?
But this is a Phillies site, so I can’t pick against the home team. My hope is that the Phillies’ recent success over the Dodgers carries over, and home field advantage is enough to give them the edge.
Phillies in five.
