The Cleveland Guardians could be called one of the more interesting teams in the American League. They won the AL Central last year (barely) and came into 2026 with a rotation that looks deeper on paper than it did then, even without any major additions. Their record so far (10-8) reflects a team that’s been solid at home and an even .500 on the road. They’ve just lost four of six including a 13-1 spanking by Atlanta on Sunday, and a two-to-one series loss to St. Louis.
The offense is built around
the usual suspects, plus a few new ones, too. José Ramírez is José Ramírez — he needs no introduction at this point, having put together nine seasons with an OPS over .800, which is simply one of the great sustained runs of production in franchise history. Outfielder Steven Kwan is in the middle of a down start to the season, but he’s been one of the best contact hitters in the game. Outfielder Angel Martinez (currently hitting .314) has been one of the pleasant surprises of the early season and has been eating into playing time for others. Rookie outfielder Chase DeLauter is hitting everything in sight (.273/.349/.618/.967).
This is considered a Top Ten offense for now, but several hitters are ice cold. Longtime Philly Rhys Hoskins has had a bumpy start to his Guardians career: he’s hitting .209 in 13 games. Ditto Brayan Rocchio, who has an OPS below .700. Utility man David Fry, who plays first and some outfield, is adding negative value right now, and Bo Naylor, samesies, given a .143 average in 12 games.
Below the top few spots, this is a lineup that doesn’t have a lot of household names, but is disciplined, makes contact, and does not beat itself.
The Cleveland rotation, meanwhile, is usually a strength, but with one exception it’s currently floundering a bit. Let’s turn to those matchups.
Game 1: Thursday, 6:10 pm, MASN
RHP Shane Baz (0-1, 4.50 ERA, 14 SO) vs. LHP Parker Messick (2-0, 0.51 ERA, 16 SO)
Baz has had an up-and-down start to life in Baltimore, allowing at least three earned runs in two of his first three outings and yet to complete six innings in any of them, giving him a 4.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP through 16 innings. The stuff remains impressive — his fastball is sitting around 97 mph and he’s been leaning more heavily on his knuckle-curve, which generated a nearly 30% whiff rate in his early work. The command has been the issue, and it has been the issue with him in the past.
On the other side of this matchup, however, is arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball right now. The 25-year-old lefty Parker Messick has an 0.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 16:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and in just three starts he’s already accumulated more WAR (1.3) than he did in his entire 2025 campaign. His most recent start came against Atlanta’s formidable offense, where he held the Braves scoreless through 6.2 innings, allowing just four hits and two walks. His changeup is special, his command is exceptional, and he is not afraid of the moment.
Game 2: Friday, 6:10 pm, MASN
RHP Chris Bassitt (0-2, 9.00 ERA, 5 SO) vs. RHP Tanner Bibee (0-2, 6.38 ERA, 18 SO)
This one looks more like a game the Orioles can win, at least on paper, because both starters are in poor form. Bassitt comes in at 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and just 5 strikeouts. He was acquired as a professional innings-eater who keeps the team in games, and that has not been what he’s delivered so far. His five-year track record of reliability gives reason to believe he’ll find his footing, but we’re not seeing it at present. In his last start, the veteran right reports being able to better land his offspeed pitches, a welcome development.
Bibee is in similarly rough shape. He entered Sunday’s start against Atlanta with a manageable 3.29 ERA, but then allowed eight runs on 11 hits over 4.2 innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 6.38 and his WHIP to 1.64 across 18.1 innings this season. Bibee was the Guardians’ Opening Day starter and is their best arm on paper — he was excellent in 2025 — so there’s every reason to think he’ll bounce back. Whether that bounce-back comes in Baltimore’s first visit to Cleveland is the question.
Game 3: Saturday, 6:10 pm, MASN
RHP Dean Kremer (0-0, 3.60 ERA, 9 SO) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (2-1, 2.38 ERA, 29 SO)
Kremer comes in at 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and 9 strikeouts, having just been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk in time to slot back into the rotation. I will say I feel good to have him back. His recent Norfolk stints showed him getting sharper, and while proving extremely homer-prone (3 HR allowed in five IP) he looked more like himself in his most recent outing against the Diamondbacks. Now he draws Gavin Williams, who has been among the most effective pitchers in the American League so far.
Williams, the Guardians’ No. 1, has a 2.38 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 29:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 22.2 innings across four starts, with three earned runs over his last three outings after a rocky first game. He is big, throws hard, and has command of multiple pitches. This is a tough test for a lineup that will need to grind out some runs if the Orioles are to steal this game.
So how do you handicap this Birds’ team’s odds? This is a tougher matchup than the White Sox, but it’s not yet clear what the Guardians are. The Orioles head to Progressive Field facing a team with two starters who are struggling, one who is historically dominant, and one who is simply very good. A 2-1 series would be a fine outcome. Three wins would be a genuine statement.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win against the Guardians this weekend?
