There are no secrets in a conference tournament, not one like the Big East Tournament. The perfect symmetry of the double round robin comes home to roost as the countdown to the selection show turns from days to hours. Not only has every team put 20 games of film into the historical record, but every team has seen every other team twice. Every action, every counter, every play call and wrinkle the bench goes to when they absolutely have to have a bucket or stop has been analyzed and pored over from every possible
angle by the time single elimination begins.
And believe me when I say that this is single elimination play for Xavier. There are no seed lines, no resume talks, no idle afternoons of fraught bubble watching this year. The assignment is simple: win out. Xavier’s next loss – number 18 on this inarguably bad season – will put this iteration of the team to rest for good. The only tomorrow is the one they earn.
UConn could hardly be in a more diametrically opposed position. They will make the NCAA Tournament. They will be a protected seed. They went through the non-conference slate like a buzz saw, with their only loss being by four points to a powerhouse Arizona squad. They rolled the Big East, deprived of a share of the title – and sliding into this game against Xavier – only by dint of an inexplicable loss to the same Marquette squad that X just sent packing. They beat Xavier twice by an aggregate 55 points in two regular season meetings, with the most recent being the keg at Cintas in which the Muskies were never competitive.
Team Fingerprint
If you were to go down the list of things Xavier does poorly, it would also accurately describe things UConn does well. Xavier struggles to score inside the arc, UConn has the 9th best 2 point defense in the country. Xavier struggles to defend inside the arc, the Huskies shoot 57% from there. Xavier gets a lot of shots blocked, UConn blocks a lot of shots. Xavier is bad on the defensive glass, UConn is good on the offensive glass. Before we paint UConn as some creature invented in a lab just to defeat this version of Xavier, which would honestly be a waste of resources, the reason UConn comes into this one at 27-4 and hoping things break right for them this week to get back up onto the 1 line in the NCAA Tournament, is that they do most of the things Xavier does well better than Xavier does them, too.
The Huskies want to play at a slow pace and they do a much better job of enforcing that than Xavier does at speeding things up. Where Xavier hangs their hat offensively, being able to move the ball and generate assists on 62.8% of their shots (13th best in the country), UConn hangs an even larger hat, generating assists on 65.3% of their shots. In essence, where these teams are similar, UConn tends to be better, save for ball security and free throw shooting, and where these teams differ, UConn has shown the ability to impose their style and will against not only Xavier but almost everyone they’ve played including projected top 4 seeds Florida, Illinois, and Kansas.
Players
UConn is led by a trio of First Team All-Conference selections in Tarris Reed, Silas Demary, and Alex Karaban. Reed is the monster in the middle at both ends for the Huskies, averaging 13.8/8.3/2.3 in conference play with an eye popping .635 EFG% and both rebounding rates in the top 6 coupled with the top block rate in the conference. Demary is the table setter, topping the conference in assists per game at 7.4, nearly 2 assists better than his closest competition. He is also liable to pick pockets on defense, earning him a spot on the Big East All-Defensive Team, and shot 47% from deep in Big East play, the best rate among qualified players. Karaban ended up 4th in the conference in minutes played and stands out as the only player in the top 8 who attempted single digit field goals per game. He remains the consummate team-first, jack of all trades that he has been throughout his career. He gets on the glass a decent amount, he shoots well, he doesn’t turn the ball over, and he chips in with his share of blocks on defense. Representing UConn on the Second Team is guard Solo Ball, who took a step back this season in terms of shooting efficiency and all around scoring, due somewhat to a smaller load of minutes, but remains a potent scoring threat. Braylon Mullins copped a spot on the Big East All-Freshman team and was second in the conference in three point attempts, cashing out 37.6% of his 7 attempts per game. While he is not just a catch and shoot threat, he shoots 55% from inside the arc, that is how he is used mostly. UConn gets between 12.2 and 13.6 from all 5 starters in conference play, so while they get a lot of minutes from the bench, the scoring load does not fall to the reserves too often. Jayden Ross is a long and versatile wing who is usually first off the bench and does a little bit of everything while not needing his number called much on offense. Jaylin Stewart fits a similar profile, although he shoots more frequently and is better from deep, while not offering quite the same impact on defense. Eric Reibe is a 7’1” freshman who is going to be a big problem for the rest of the Big East in the future as he hones his game around his already excellent rebounding and interior scoring. Malachi Smith backs up Demary off the bench and shoots the three well, but has struggled inside the arc and at the line.
Three Keys
- Win the freebie battle at the line– UConn sent opponents to the line at the 67th highest rate in the country this season. If they are able to control the tempo as they normally do, Xavier has to be able to get some easy points since going against a set defense really isn’t their thing. Xavier played Marquette about even overall at the line last night, but hit 10 of 11 when it really mattered to put them over the edge. In the two regular season meeting, Xavier got 18 more free throws than UConn, but converted under 70% in both games. Tonight, they need to make those count to have a chance.
- Win the freebie battle in possession– While UConn isn’t as profligate with the ball as DePaul or Providence, they ranked 7th in the conference in offensive turnover rate. That is the one area where Xavier is markedly better, but did not establish any meaningful advantage in the regular season matchups. In their losses to St. John’s and Marquette, UConn posted turnover rates above 20%. Xavier’s defense has hit that number once since conference play started, in the loss at Marquette, but for them to pull this off they need to at least get close to it.
- Don’t lose touch early– Both regular season matchups were done and dusted by the 10 minute mark of the first half. In Hartford UConn had already gone on runs of 13-2 and 16-2 by that point and in Cincinnati they got it all out of the way in one go with a 27-4 spurt. This one is an extremely tall task, but Xavier can do themselves a favor by getting to the second media timeout with reason to believe.
