An oddity began last November when the Cardinals chose to carry an almost unheard of five catchers on the 40-man roster. At the time, Pedro Pages, Ivan Herrera, Jimmy Crooks, Yahel Pozo and Leo Bernal occupied those spots. While five was pretty unusual, some explanation could be found due to the uncertainty of Ivan Herrera, who would undergo off-season elbow surgery and was mired in a deep throwing slump. Still, 12.5% of the roster being dedicated to catching seemed to create pinch points in other
areas. How would this resolve? Many advocated for clearing up this apparent roster logjam.
As spring turned to summer, concerns about Herrera’s health dissipated, but the view on his throwing remained a tempest. In spite of the varied opinions, it had become apparent that the Cardinals see Herrera as a legit option at C (to the chagrin of many who looked at the CS rate), catching him regularly on the short end of a 60:40 rotation. Further evolution has led to an additional split, where Jimmy Crooks has taken the primary catching duties with Pedro Pages on the shortest end of a now three catcher rotation. Herrera’s slice is largely unchanged, although he isn’t bolted to the same two pitchers anymore. Meanwhile, Pozo was DFA’ed when roster needs elsewhere became acute, and picked up by Baltimore (who now, interestingly, carry 3 catchers). Perhaps the Cardinals have discovered the new market inefficiency.
Yet even four catchers on the 40-man seems an unusual allocation, particular over a longer period of time. Even more pressing, another one young catcher (if you haven’t heard) by the name of Rainel Rodriguez has played well enough at A+ and then AA that his name enters almost any catching conversation, even though his name does not yet appear on the 40-man roster. He is quite precocious. This isn’t article about Rainel, but if it was, I would be regaling you with statistical accomplishments he has achieved already that compare quite favorably to some of the league’s top hitters over the last generation.
All this leads many pundits and fans to comment that this situation needs resolution. Many expected Pages to be moved at the trade deadline. To think a bit asynchronously, does 4 catchers on the 40-man roster really require resolution? Granted it is unconventional, but does it really require some management intervention? If so, when?
Complicating any future plan is the difficulty in evaluating each of the individual players and more so, figuring out who might be the best fit on a roster that in and of itself is undergoing more churn. For instance, it seems the club preferred Pages defense, but his offense really doesn’t fit well on this weak-hitting roster. If the club had more good hitters, he would be a better fit.
Some look at Crooks as a better blend of offense and possibly even superior defense, but in his second go at MLB really has done little to impress. Some underlying metrics do support the notion of his blend, but how long might it take to emerge?
Bernal, unseen in the MLB, is a mystery, with widely varying views of both his offense and defense. Some evaluators believe Crooks far superior defensively, others with the opposite point of view. Which is it? And how do they tell? As we’ve seen, catching at the MLB level is different than Memphis or elsewhere in the minor league circuit.
Ivan Herrera’s offensive chops are now well established. He is clearly the best hitter of the current group, although Rainel seems destined to challenge that. Ivan’s offense is prolific enough that Oli works very hard to get his bat in the line-up each and every day. His offense is enough that some might argue he is an everyday bat if not an everyday catcher, and this leads to some advocating for a position change.
Rainel seems a bit of a mystery defensively, but it is becoming very clear that his bat has the chance to be very special. Special enough that the arguments around Herrera are extended to RainRod even more emphatically. Many will say a bat like that needs to be in the line-up every day and not subjected to the rigors of MLB catching. I have no good argument for that point of view. Unless he is Pudge Rodriguez or Yadi Molina defensively, they say, catching is not where his greatest value is to be found.
How does all this unfold? Straight up, I don’t know. But based on conversations I’ve had and actions I’ve observed, I’m developing a framework for how it could unfold.
Many people expected Pages to be moved at the deadline and, absent that, to be moved this winter. Possible, but I’m not so sure on the timing. Some believe that this off-season, the Cardinals need to choose a path and that RainRod is going to be the ultimate victor in this positional competition. The goal for them becomes to “sell high” and get prospect returns from some of the others. Again, I’m not so sure. Let’s be clear, I’d suspect if the right deal came along, they’d probably take it. But I’m beginning to suspect that is not their primary plan going forward.
Let’s unpack this individually first, then treat these guys as a group to try and formulate that framework.
Pages will not be eligible for arbitration until the end of the 2027 season. That is an important consideration, in the sense that there really isn’t pressure to move him. He is major league minimum salary for 2027 and there is no alternative that would be cheaper. But, but…wouldn’t they rather have a pitcher using that 40-man spot?
I’m going to publish an update that looks at 40-man issues that might be appearing this fall. You will get the details next week, but it turns out there really isn’t a significant 40-man roster pressure, pitchers or otherwise. The Cardinals have lots of pitchers in the pipeline, but only a few need 40-man protection. They are in zero danger of losing a needed pitcher even if the keep all 4 catchers on the 40-man roster. Unconventional? Certainly. Possible. Yes. Achievable. Definitely. It turns out management has finessed the 40-man roster, as a whole, quite nicely. Read the article next week, in the meantime trust me that the 40-man roster can handle 4 catchers for another year or so. On to the individuals:
Crooks is a runway guy. He has enough scouting data and underlying metric to forecast the potential for better offense and better defense than Pages. So, he gets runway. That runway will run into next year, almost certainly.
Bernal is also a runway guy. He profiles different than Crooks in how he gets there, but he also projects to be better offensively and defensively than Pages (and perhaps Crooks). He will get his shot, in St. Louis, unless someone blows Bloom and Company away with a trade offer.
Herrera is an established top-flight hitter. They’ve played him EVERY day. If that doesn’t speak volumes, I don’t know what will. I don’t know if they view him as cemented in at C, but there is no data to suggest he will be moving on to another team or another position. Moving him to another team would be problematic in that it would leave them with the need to acquire another top-flight hitter when they are short of that talent already. Again, the right offer might dislodge him, but that seems the less likely path.
That leaves RainRod. As each day passes, the confidence that his bat will be special grows. He keeps doing things that only Hall of Fame caliber players have done before him. I’m not projecting HOF status for him (it’s a wee bit soon), but his trajectory is unmistakable. I would think of him as untouchable, so a trade seems unlikely. Given his trajectory, a position switch seems unlikely too. Remarkably, he is too close to MLB already and learning a new position would require they slow down his ascension. That seems counter-productive. He is getting time at 1B, which I find notable if I think some about Alec Burleson’s primary weakness as a hitter (LHP platoon splits).
So, how does all this work?
Let’s introduce the idea I think of as Three-into-Four. Hear me out.
The three is this equation are the catchers: Today, the three are Pages, Crooks, Herrera. By this time next year, good chance the three are Crooks, Herrera and Bernal. Much beyond that horizon comes another name. Rodriguez. That is the three part of 3into4.
To understand the Four, let’s go conventional. Most teams carry 2-3 catchers on their 40-man and carry two catchers on their active roster, right? The Cardinals (today) are clearly not “most teams”. Conventionally, each team has a DH (either a dedicated one or a rotation through), a primary C, and backup C and a primary first baseman. That is the Four I write of.
Now, let’s move off conventional and look at the Cardinals rather unconventional situation, and picture this scenario. They have some challenges:
- They have too many catchers (as compared to conventional)
- They have a first baseman with a serious LHP platoon split that degrades his value.
- They have a bat-first, short-side platoon catcher who needs protection to stay healthy, who by the way, is a really, really good hitter.
How can these be made to work to advantage? Let’s look at next season for starters, and leave RainRod out of the discussion on the assumption that his ETA is really more like 2028. I’m not writing that in stone, but positing that to understand the strawman I think the Cardinals have built around this situation.
Start with the idea that out of 3 catchers, on any given day, one can catch and one can DH, so they can always play 2 of them. Remember that Crooks is a LH batter, Herrera a RH batter and Bernal a switch hitter. Flexibility exists here. The biggest obstacle here isn’t carrying 4 catchers. It is ridding themselves of the notion that DH is a position to rotation various players through. In this strawman, DH will be a spot to rotate a solid hitting catcher into to keep their bat in the line-up while protecting them physically from the rigors of catching.
It looks like this:
When there is an LHP on the mound, in addition to one catching and one DHing, the last one can play first base (likely Bernal, who is working there at AAA). This approach would serve to alleviate the LHP platoon split presented when Alec Burleson plays 1B or DH with an LHP on the mound. This approach requires that Bernal’s bat be MLB ready. When?
When there is an RHP on the mound, Crooks or Bernal catches (depending on matchup and who caught yesterday) and Herrera DHs, with Burleson manning first.
This approach actually results in a 40-30-30 catching ration (with Herrera now on the long side of the platoon, although not catching any more than this year). The allocation of most of the DH spots to catchers on days they aren’t catching ends up with each guy getting into around 120 games, which tends to be on the high side for a catcher. It preserves their body, though, and results in end of the season flexibility to go with a hot hand.
At some point in time, RainRod will be ready and, bluntly, when he is, he dislodges one of the three. It is not only hard to predict exactly when this may happen, but also who he dislodges. Who is dependent on performance we have yet to see as well as any MiLB action RainRod encounters at other positions. Maybe a catcher. Maybe a first baseman. Maybe a third baseman. Hard to say. But until the day RainRod arrives, it strikes me that the current catching carousel can continue without pressure to make a move. This will allow the team to let development and competition settle out who goes and who stays in due time, not under any pressure to “get something done”.
Where does Pages fit in all this? I think he has a spot until they are ready to bring Bernal up, and then, not. Will that be out of 2027 spring training? Who knows? But I can begin to see how they have a plan to let all this organically work itself out without feeling pressure to make a move and try to pick the winner of this derby too early.
For those of you who think the Cardinals need to clear this up this coming off-season, don’t expect it to occur that fast unless a mind-blowing offer accompanies it.
