Buffalo Bills Week 18 AFC playoff race rooting interests

Here’s how the Buffalo Bills could find themselves way back up the AFC playoff ladder by the end of Week 18.

Summarized by AI ⓘ

What is the story about?

This is it. The last one of the season. The Buffalo Bills are a Wild Card, that much we know, but exactly which seed the’ll be (and who they will face in next week’s playoff game) is yet to be determined. And there’s a lot to determine in this final week of the 2025 NFL season. Before we get started, let’s look at who is in and who is out and who is hoping for one last chance.

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AFC East Week 18 standings

New England Patriots (13-3)
Buffalo Bills (11-5)
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
New York Jets (3-13)

AFC Playoff Picture heading into Week 18

Denver Broncos (13-3) – z
New England Patriots (13-3) – z
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – y
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Houston Texans (10-5) – y
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) – y
Buffalo Bills (11-5) – y
Indianapolis Colts (8-8) – x
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
Kansas City Chiefs (6-9) – x
Miami Dolphins (6-9) – x
Cincinnati Bengals (5-10) – x
New York Jets (3-12) – x
Tennessee Titans (3-12) – x
Cleveland Browns (3-12) – x
Las Vegas Raiders (2-13) – x

z – Division Champion, y – Locked in a Playoff Spot, x – Eliminated, BOLD – Not in Yet

New England is the AFC East champion. Yes, Buffalo gave them that with their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend. But, the Patriots aren’t locked into their two seed just yet. In fact, the Broncos aren’t locked in to the one seed spot either. And, while the Bills are listed in the final wild card spot, that could change with all the right outcomes.

It’s possible that Buffalo could move up to the five-seed spot by the end of Sunday’s games. If they did, their opponent in the Wild Card round for the AFC Playoffs will be the four seed. Who that is, is also up for grabs this weekend. The Steelers and the Ravens will face off in a “winner take all” — or maybe more correctly, a “loser go home” — game.

So, here’s a look at who Bills Mafia needs to root for in Week 18 — or at least who I will be rooting for, because this week, it’s all about what matchup you hope for next weekend.

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AFC East Week 18 Bills rooting interests

Buffalo Bills (11-5) over New York Jets (3-13), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)

It’s been strongly suggested that head coach Sean McDermott may give his starters a rest this weekend. A wild card spot is a wild card spot. But winning and losing could mean the difference between going to New England or Pittsburgh (or Baltimore). Plus, there are records and incentives on the line.

Expect Josh Allen to be in a very limited amount of time — maybe one chance at touchdown number 40, maybe not even that. Expect James Cook to make an exit as soon as he has enough yards to ensure the rushing title is his (but we won’t know how many yards that is until kick off). However, the Jets have been riding the struggle bus all season, and there’s no reason to think the Mitch Trubisky, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson can’t bring home the final win at “The Ralph.”

Go Bills!

Miami Dolphins (7-9) over New England Patriots (13-3), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (FOX)

This is petty, but I don’t want to see the Patriots as the one seed. That could happen in an unfortunate series of events. To make sure it doesn’t, the Dolphins need to step up and win one. Plus a Miami win moves them one step further from the top of the draft order.

Week 18 games that impact the rest of the AFC Playoff Picture

Indianapolis Colts (8-8) over Houston Texans (11-5), Sunday 1 pm. EST (CBS

The Bills can claim the six seed if they win and Houston loses.

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) over Tennessee Titans (3-13), Sunday 1 p.m. EST (Fox)

Jacksonville can bump the Patriots down to the three seed if they win while New England loses. That would set them up for a matchup with whatever team ends up at seven.

Denver Broncos (13 – 3) over Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), Sunday 4:25 p.m. EST (CBS)

If Indianapolis wins in the earlier game, the Bills can claim the seven seed if they win and Los Angeles loses. If the Texans win early, a Chargers loss with a Buffalo win still gives the Bills the six seed. Plus, a Denver win means that even if the Patriots won, they can’t have the AFC’s top spot — and again, I’m being petty this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) over Baltimore Ravens (8-8), Sunday 8:20 p.m. EST (NBC)

One of these teams will play next week. One will not. If the Bills move up to the five-spot, the winner of this is their opponent in the first round of the playoffs. Buffalo will be on the road, so this is a matter of where would you rather see the Bills play: Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It looks like Derrick Henry has found his stride as the season is nearing a close, and Lamar Jackson’s back isn’t hurting him. Personally, I would rather see Josh Allen head back to Pittsburgh and watch James Cook run all over T.J. Watt than see the Bills front five try to stop the Henry/Jackson duo in Baltimore.

So, there you have it. That’s my wish list for the final week of the 2025 season. The rest of the games don’t matter. They do, but just for draft seeding. The Bills aren’t going to need those tie-breaker scenarios that had us watching Strength of Schedule and Strength of Victory for the past four months. No games being played by non-AFC-playoff teams are important for Bills Mafia this week, so root for whomever you want — look at the draft seeding or go with any past-season grudges you may still be holding on to. Or, just sit back and focus on the six games that matter this week.

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Optimistic AFC Playoff standings after Week 18

So, if all the bounces go the Bills’ way and all the right teams win, this is what the AFC Playoff would look like as the regular season comes to a close.