The Hurricanes are in and ready to make some noise for the first time ever in the College Football Playoffs. Miami had a great regular season, despite going through adversity (like every team does in a season), and now finds itself competing for a national championship.
Step one is to go into Kyle Field, the most hostile environment in college football, and come out with a victory.
There are many similarities between these two teams. Between the defenses, offenses, and even personnel, this matchup
is the best in the CFP in round one.
We can detail the trenches and the significant role they are going to play in determining who wins. But when going through all the matchups (and there are a lot of great ones), there is one that stands out and will be the ultimate factor on Saturday afternoon.
Carson Beck vs. Marcel Reed
Yes, you read that right. The matchup that will determine who moves on to play Ohio State will be between Carson Beck and Marcel Reed. Obviously, they will not go against each other on the field, but the quarterback who plays better against one of these top defenses will win the game.
Starting with Beck, he has had his fair share of ups and downs, but ended the season on a heater. In the month of November, he completed over 76% of his passes for nearly 1,400 passing yards and 13 touchdowns. He threw three interceptions in that span, but had the offense in rhythm and ahead of the chains. For the season, Beck has thrown 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
What will be key on Saturday afternoon will be the money-down, third-down. Beck has completed 65% of his passes on third down for 627 yards (average of 7.4 yards) and six touchdowns. He has only one interception on third down this season, and that will be imperative against a great Aggies defense.
Beck’s splits from home and away are interesting. His splits at home consist of a 12:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 73% completion rate. When on the road, Beck completes 76% of his passes, three points higher (significant margin) and a 13:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
For whatever reason, Beck is more comfortable on the road (statistically speaking) and has been at his best when doing so. He has won a lot in college football and is the most experienced quarterback in the entire College Football Playoff. Beck has a total of 2,881 snaps played, 300 more than the second quarterback in the field, and has thrown the most total passes out of the entire field as well (in terms of college career). Experience matters a ton, and Beck will lean on that to get Miami over the hump.
Reed has the complete opposite splits of Beck when it comes to performing on the road and at home, but identical season numbers. Reed has thrown for 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, while adding three on the ground at Kyle Field. He doesn’t have the best completion percentage (around 60%), but he can hurt the opposing defenses with his legs.
In the season, he has 466 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He has the ability to win the game with his rushing attack and has already broken off runs for 40+ yards this year. Where he struggles as a quarterback is getting into obvious passing situations.
On third down this season, Reed has thrown for four touchdowns (one on the ground as well) and three interceptions. His completion percentage is 49% on money-downs. Whenever Reed is in a 3rd and six or longer situation, his completion percentage drops to 45%.
He struggles with throwing the ball in obvious passing situations, and Miami will look to exploit that on Saturday, meaning they have to win on first and second down.
In the season, Reed has thrown for 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, just like Beck, but it’s his legs that separate him from Beck from a statistical standpoint.
Beck is more of a traditional quarterback, while Reed is more of a dual-threat quarterback. They have both led their teams to the College Football Playoff and have been great leaders.
When it comes down to who has an edge to have the better game and win the game for their team, I’ll give the slight edge to Beck due to his experience and ability to convert and complete passes at a high level on third down.
