Game notes
- Time and date: Friday, January 2 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, TX
- Spread: Texas State (-16.5)
- Over/under: 57.5
- All-time series: Texas State leads, 3-2
- Last meeting: Texas State 45, Rice 21 — December 26, 2023 (First Responder Bowl)
- Current streak: Texas State, 1 (2023)
- Rice last bowl: 2023 First Responder Bowl, 45-21 loss to Texas State
- Texas State last bowl: 2024 First Responder Bowl, 30-28 win over North Texas
- 2024 Armed Forces Bowl matchup: Navy 21, Oklahoma 20
Setting the scene
And so we meet again. The Rice Owls and Texas State Bobcats collided for the first time as FBS opponents in the 2023 First Responder Bowl. Texas State waltzed away with a 45-21 victory to secure its first-ever bowl win in its first-ever bowl appearance. Two years later, the rematch moves to a different side of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.
The 2025 Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth hosts Texas State and Rice in the only Texas vs. Texas showdown of 2025 Bowl Season. The Bobcats enter as heavy favorites
looking for a third-straight bowl win, while the Owls seek their first postseason hardware since 2014.
Rice Owls outlook
Rice (5-7, 2-6 American) is one of three 5-7 teams that qualified for bowl eligibility, due to the opt-outs of Kansas State, Iowa State, and Notre Dame. The Owls seized the opportunity in year one of the Scott Abell era after falling one victory short, and it will be their second time bowl at 5-7 in a 4-year span.
Rice is long starved for success. The program hasn’t seen a winning season since 2014, and that trend is slated to continue another year. However, the Owls can clinch their first bowl victory since 2014 in Fort Worth as they look for revenge against their last bowl opponent in Texas State.
The Owls look substantially different than the 2023 team that battled the Bobcats. Most noticeably, Rice altered its offensive scheme, implementing an option-style offense under Abell. Only the three service academies pass fewer times per game than the Owls (16.9), and they rank third nationally in rushing attempts (50.3) — 2nd-to-last in passing yards and 14th in rushing yards per contest.
But Rice’s offense will take on an unforeseen form in Cowtown, as QB1 Chase Jenkins and QB2 Drew Devillier are planning transfers elsewhere. That leaves Lucas Scheerhorn and Patrick Crayton Jr. as the Owls’ rather inexperienced options at quarterback. Scheerhorn transferred from Kennesaw State and previously played in an option-style offense. The 6’0”, 196 pound redshirt freshman has seven career passes and 10 career rushing attempts, not offering much film to the Texas State defense. Crayton is similar. The true freshman threw six passes and ran seven times this year and could see valuable action Friday.
With the quarterback room severely depleted, expect Rice to rely heavily on star running back Quinton Jackson. Jackson enters with 811 rushing yards on the year — showing the peak of his powers in a 168-yard rushing, 80-yard receiving, 4-total touchdown masterclass vs. UConn this year. He’ll remain the focal point of the offense, but Rice has also increased the utilization of freshman D’Andre Hardeman Jr. lately, and he had 10+ carries twice in November. The other skill position standout to watch in the run game is Aaron Turner. As a receiver, he’s the clear-cut No. 1 option is 53 receptions, and as a runner, the senior can be dangerous on jet sweeps.
Rice is 119th in scoring offense and 120th in scoring defense, and the defensive-oriented games were beneficial for the Owls. Abell’s team finished 4-0 holding opponents to 17 points or fewer and 1-7 otherwise. And things got out of hand against the top offenses Rice faced, as three opponents posted 52+ points this season.
The defense’s star power resides in the linebacking unit. Leading tacklers Andrew Awe and Ty Morris belong to that group, and they boast 101 and 82 stops, respectively, with a combined 15 tackles for loss. Blake Boenisch and Tony Anyanwu also produced a slew of negative plays from the first level. There were plenty of concerns with this Rice defense, but the main one was the lack of turnovers forced. The Owls are tied for last in the country with six takeaways, yet, the offense’s ability to hold onto the ball only makes them a -2 in 2025.
Texas State Bobcats outlook
Texas State (6-6, 3-5 Sun Belt) looked destined for Sun Belt contention after a strong non-conference showing which featured a road win at rival UTSA. However, the Bobcats stumbled to an 0-5 start in league play, dropping four of those matchups by one score including two in overtime fashion — often in shootout form. But GJ Kinne and his crew performed its best with its back against the wall, completely dismantling Southern Miss, ULM, and South Alabama by a combined 67 points to seal a third-straight bowl game.
This is Texas State’s third bowl in history (and third bowl of the Kinne era), and the Bobcats enter with a 2-0 record. Just like the last two years, they’ll face an American Conference Texas-based opponent in a DFW bowl, looking to add more hardware to the suddenly-growing collection.
Texas State got to six wins primarily because of its offensive prowess. The Bobcats are 12th in the FBS in scoring (36.1 points per game) and 6th in production (476 yards per game), operating with a balanced offense that’s equally threatening through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Brad Jackson’s dual-threat abilities open up plenty of opportunities for this offense which has a wealth of skill position talent. Jackson has 3,050 passing yards this year on a 71.3 completion rate — the fifth-most accurate percentage among QBs with at least 300 attempts. As a runner, the quarterback has 692 yards and a Sun Belt-based 16 rushing touchdowns, frequently thriving on zone reads.
Jackson isn’t the only major threat to run in this offense. Sixth-year senior Lincoln Pare finally wraps up a long college career, building on his first 1,000-yard campaign. Expect a heavy dose of Pare as the Bobcats look to send the accomplished senior into the sunset with his ninth 100-yard showing since transferring to San Marcos.
Other standouts in this elite offense include the lethal receiver tandem of Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. Sparks ranks atop the Sun Belt with 1,113 receiving yards on 80 catches, while Dawn follows with 931 on 54 — closing in on 1,000 yards if he maintains his season average. Both receivers make life incredibly difficult for opposing secondaries, and Texas State will often expand its passing game to Pare out of the backfield (36 catches on the year), making defenses pick their poison.
The reason Texas State has six losses can primarily be attributed to defense. The Bobcats are 112th in opponent points per game at 30.6, struggling both in containing running backs and receivers. Over half of Texas State’s regular season competition notched over 30 and a quarter of teams generated 40+ on the Bobcats. Struggling in the turnover battle (-6 on the season) didn’t help, but the Bobcats showed improvement by surrendering an average of 18 points per game during their 3-game win streak.
Inside linebacker Treylin Payne is the primary name to watch on that side. He was the lone defensive All-Sun Belt selection, tallying 102 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss. Cornerback Jaden Rios (team-high three interceptions) and defensive end Kalil Alexander (team-high 4.0 sacks) are the Bobcats to watch in charge of the havoc plays.
Prediction
Texas State is the heavy favorite, riding a 3-game win streak where it looked overly dominant, finally living up to the potential it saw in September. The Bobcats’ offensive abilities were never doubted, but slight improvement on defense made them look like a Sun Belt contender in November. It will be an uphill battle for Rice keeping pace with this offense, especially down two quarterbacks. It’s in the Owls’ best interest to shorten this game and consume as much time of possession as possible.
However, that won’t be enough to stop Texas State’s explosive offensive attack, which dominates in Fort Worth.
Prediction: Texas State 38, Rice 7
