The 2025 season is over, and the Chicago Bears exceeded most expectations.
They won the NFC North, finished the season with an 11-6 record, and beat their rival in their first playoff win in 15 years. By
all major accounts, Ben Johnson’s first season was a serious success.
After a heartbreaking loss to an elite Rams team, the Bears enter the offseason in a different light. They are no longer cellar dwellers or in search of an answer — they are a battle-tested team with talent and coaching that should compete for a championship next year.
Should is a tricky word, though. While the Bears will return a huge majority of their impact talent, many rival fan bases are already pointing towards reasons for regression for Chicago.
It all starts with their schedule. In 2025, the Bears played a last place schedule, meaning they faced off against the worst team in select divisions from the year prior. After winning the NFC North, that flips, and they will face the division winners across the league. That alone will make things difficult.
The second argument for regression is related to their ability to win in close games. The Bengals, Giants, Raiders, and Packers wins (among others) showed a team that was equal parts clutch and inconsistent. Many are expecting the Bears to lose more of these close games in 2026 than they did in 2025.
Valid or not, these are the arguments against the 2026 Chicago Bears repeating their success. Which got me thinking:
Will the Bears have a better record in 2026?
I think yes.
And my reason is simple: Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson are going to get more consistent, and the defense is going to drastically improve.
I completely understand that the Bears are now going to have to play teams like the Philadelphia Eagles rather than the New York Giants, but I think the team’s trajectory will lead them to more wins than their schedule will lead to losses.
For all of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams’ success in 2025, they have serious room for improvement. None is more obvious than starting off each game faster. Below is a breakdown of the Bears’ success by quarter.
- Q1: 5.5 points (6th best), 52.51% possession rate (8th best)
- Q2: 5.4 points (26th best), 49.88% possession rate (18th best)
- Q3: 5.0 points (11th best), 55.20% possession rate (5th best)
- Q4: 9.5 points (League best), 49.82% possession rate (17th best)
So while the Bears’ offense wasn’t terrible at any point in the game, their 4th Quarter offense was excellent at converting opportunities relative to the rest of the game. I have a ton of confidence in Ben and Caleb to get that figured out with a second offseason of work.
Caleb has already shown the propensity to be able to make offseason adjustments in areas that plagued him — as evidenced by his sack percentage going from 10.79% to 4.05%. So, as he looks back on a season where he too often missed easy throws, sporting a 20.7% bad throw percentage, we should feel confident that he will find more consistency in the short to intermediate throws. This would go a long way in helping the offense maintain consistency across all 4 quarters.
Beyond just Caleb and Ben, the Bears have other young players on offense that we should expect growth from. Luther Burden, Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, Kyle Monangai, and Darnell Wright should continue to ascend with another year under their belt. If Ozzy Trapilo returns healthy, he should also grow within the system in year two.
However, it’s not just the offense. Bears fans should be bullish on improvements for a defense that did very little outside of turn the ball over. Injuries ravaged a defensive unit that ranked 23rd in the league in ppg allowed and 29th in yards allowed. The last 6 quarters of the postseason could provide some insight into the baseline of the Bears’ defense moving forward.
Players like Kyler Gordon, Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, and Austin Booker finally had a chance to play together while relatively healthy. Sprinkle in veterans like Montez Sweat, Edmunds/Edwards (if they stick around), Grady Jarrett, and Kevin Byard/CJ Gardner Johnson (pending free agency), the Bears should have a solid unit to build off of moving forward.
It is also safe to assume that this team will invest heavily on defense in the draft and free agency. Adding a premium talent at DT, and contributors at LB and Safety can and should be achieved if this defense is to take another step. With Dennis Allen at the reins, fans should expect this defense to be closer to league average in most statistics.
We are a long way from knowing what this roster and coaching staff looks like entering next season, but the Bears have as much stability year to year as they have had since Lovie Smith was around. Because of that, I’m putting 12 wins down for the beloved, where they lose a few more close games, but put teams away early like they were unable to do this past season.
