The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins are both under some pressure already. Having lost their respective season openers, falling to 0-2 would put either team in a challenging position. Since the NFL moved to its 17-game format in 2021, after all, only 16.7 percent of clubs starting the season with back-to-back losses (5 of 30) managed to eventually qualify for the playoff.
So, while losing in Week 1 and Week 2 is not necessary a death knell for a team’s postseason hopes it makes the long-term
outlook far less favorable. Both the Patriots and Dolphins would want to avoid that on Sunday.
Who will meet that undesirable fate will be seen, but the game between the two division rivals projects to be a tightly-contested one.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Dolphins pass defense: Despite Drake Maye setting a new career high in passing yards, New England’s passing offense fell short of expectation in Week 1 against the Raiders. Luckily, it will get a chance at a bounce-back in Week 2. Sure, Miami does have some disruptive talent up front that will prove a challenge to the offensive line, but the team’s pass defense as a whole struggled versus the Colts’ Daniel Jones last Sunday. Injuries in particular continue to be a major concern for Miami, especially now that starting cornerback Storm Duck is also a realistic candidate to miss the game with an ankle injury. At least on paper, this means advantage Patriots. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Dolphins pass offense: Based on Week 1, the Dolphins passing offense will again only be as good as Tua Tagovailoa allows it to be. Against the Colts, the sixth-year quarterback had a rough go, tossing two interceptions and losing a fumble. Indianapolis cornerback Xavien Howard later spoke about getting him into “panic mode” by making him go through his reads; while that might be a bit of an exaggeration, the Patriots — even with Christian Gonzalez likely out again — should be able to put Tagovailoa in uncomfortable situations, particularly because Miami might also start a new tackle-guard combo protecting his blind side. Unless the team’s second-level struggles versus play action continue, New England should be able to disrupt its opponent’s success through the air. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Dolphins run defense: Josh McDaniels claimed this week that he wanted to get his running backs more involved in the offensive operation after a quiet season opener. However, even when they got the ball last week, there was little room for them to make a positive impact. Until the New England offensive line can show its ability to reliably block in the run game and execute its assignments on an adequate level — we are looking at the combination of rookies Will Campbell and Jared Wilson in particular — questions will remain. | Edge: Dolphins
Patriots run defense vs. Dolphins rushing offense: De’Von Achane is a good player, and Mike McDaniel as creative a play designer in the run game as there is in the NFL. And yet, based on last Sunday, New England’s defense should have the upper hand in the running game entering this week’s contest. Miami’s makeshift offensive line creating a consistent push for Achane against the likes of Christian Barmore, Milton Williams and company is far from a given and something we will need to see before we believe it. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Dolphins’ kicking game units struggled the last few years, leading to a coaching change this offseason. In the first game under new coordinator Craig Aukerman — the former special teams coach under Mike Vrabel in Tennessee — the group looked solid outside of a running into the kicker penalty converting a fourth down for the Colts. The Patriots also had some positive moments in Week 1, but there were two penalties plus a missed field goal and shanked punt. In the “What have you done or me lately?” league that is the NFL, we are therefore picking Miami as having the edge. | Edge: Dolphins
Coaching
Both New England and Miami have some experienced coaches on their staff, plus some questions. For the Patriots, the chemistry within the new-look group plus the current absence of defensive coordinator Terrell Williams are big uncertainties. For the Dolphins, meanwhile, it is all about how bought in the team still is in Mike McDaniel’s vision. Purely in terms of his abilities as an offensive coach, however, he might pose a problem for a New England defensive staff having to adapt to life without its leader again. | Edge: Dolphins
Verdict
The Patriots and Dolphins are entering Week 2 in the same basic boat, and already as close to must-win territory as you can be at this point in the season. Of course, from the outside looking in, Miami will be under more pressure: not only is the team playing at home, but the expectations for the season were set higher by fans and media alike than for a rebuilding New England squad under a first-year head coach.
The Dolphins meeting those expectations on Sunday will not be easy, though. The Patriots — as shown above — appear to have the edge in a few key areas, and if they jump out to the fast start they are aiming for could make the game an uncomfortable one for a team seemingly already on the ropes.
