Hey! Did you hate playing against Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma? You did? Good! Now here’s something completely different!
Arkansas is 2-9. They haven’t won a football game since September 6th.
They fired Sam Pittman nearly two months ago and their interim coach, Bobby Petrino, has not won a game. Oh, and the best part? This is the third-worst defense Missouri will play this year. Yes, worse than kansas and Mississippi State. And only slightly better than Louisiana and UMass.
The bad news? The game is on the road and Missouri isn’t allowed to win games on the road (except for those 9 special times). And, this is the third-best offense they will have faced all year, only slightly below Texas A&M and Vanderbilt (and really close to Alabama). And, Arkansas on paper isn’t all that bad. In fact, SP+ sees Arkansas as the 44th-best team in the country, and a 6-win team. YEAH. Why? Because Arkansas is 0-6 in one-score games, including taking Ole Miss, Memphis, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and LSU to the limit.
So anything can happen here, is the point. If you sleep on them they can beat you, no doubt.
Man, playing in the SEC sucks.
When Missouri Has The Ball
This should be the fun part of the game. Arkansas is at or near the bottom of the P4 in every major defensive category you can think of, including against the run and the pass. They stink in standard downs, are atrocious in passing downs, generate very little pressure or havoc and…well…are bad. This has the makings of another Ahmad Hardy 300-yard day if they want it.
Just run the ball
You need to make Arkansas quit and the best way to do that is to repeatedly punch them in the dick with a punishing run game. Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts can do it. This offensive line should be motivated to prove themselves. And this is the 120th-ranked rush defense in the country. Mizzou should be able to reach at least a 48% rushing success rate.
Win 3rd Downs
The longer Mizzou keeps Taylen Green and the offense on the sideline the better off they are, and to do that you need to stay on the field for long stretches of time, which requires converting 3rd-downs. 50% success rate is the goal.
Finish your dang drives
We certainly saw what it looks like when you don’t finish your drives in the Oklahoma game. Arkansas is very generous in this regard, allowing opponents to enter their 40-yard line and walk out with an average of 4.77 points per trip. Let’s make that 5.2 and set the goal at 6 scoring opportunities generated for 31 points.
When Arkansas Has The Ball
Arkansas’ offense is everything that its defense isn’t. 15th overall, 3rd in rushing, 15th in passing, 21st in standard downs, 6th in passing downs, 18th in 3rd-downs. They put up 35 points against Ole Miss (20th-ranked defense), 42 against Texas A&M (22nd) 24 against Auburn (16th), 22 against LSU (9th), and 37 against Texas (17th). Missouri’s current defensive SP+ rank: 15th.
Endure the ground game
Assuming Taylen Green gets 16 yards in this game, Arkansas will have two 1,000+ yard rushers in the same season since Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams did it in back-to-back season from 2014-2015. It is what they are good at but they don’t do it as frequently as you expect, as their run rates in standard downs (56%) and passing downs (33%) are slightly below national averages. Still, its where the majority of their yards come from and you’d much prefer them to throw it than run it. Let’s try to keep the rushing success rate below 47%. FYI, Arkansas’s current rushing success rate is 52%! Mizzou’s: 48%.
Turn them over
As good as Arkansas is at moving the ball, they’re also very good at giving it up to the other side. The way they play lends to an expected turnover mark of 13.7 turnovers which ranks 57th in the nation. They’re actual turnover count: 15. And their turnover margin is -4 on the year which ranks 103rd. They’ll give it to you if you try and it’s imperative that Mizzou nabs a few to demoralize them quickly. Let’s go with Mizzou +2 turnover margin.
Conclusion
This has all the ingredients for a terrible upset loss. The opponent stinks in record and has nothing to play for but is actually secretly kind of good and can take way better teams down to the wire; it plays a style of offense that is specifically equipped to beat the lone defensive weakness that Mizzou has; it’s on the road; the offense has looked awful in three of its last four games; and the buzz around Eli Drinkwitz leaving has never been louder.
But! Also! There’s a trophy! A big one! That you can actually see and hold! Go win it, Eli!
